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Aaronal

Feb 25 • 8 tweets • 2 min read

Interesting article on how Russia has been able to both dodge economic catastrophe+repurpose their economy despite sanctions. Traders in more RU friendly countries help them get restricted goods & ⬆️ trade with China,India & Turkey is replacing the EU. economist.com/europe/2023/02…

According to the IMF, Russian GDP only contracted by 2.2% in 2022 against early western estimates of a 10% collapse made in the Spring of that year. In addition, the IMF predicts the Russian economy will grow by 0.3% this year, higher than both Germany & the UK.

The piece mentioned how Russia was dealing with the $350B of European+American investments in RU. A decree passed when the war started forces western companies closing down operations to obtain a permit & sell at govt determined prices (a discount of 50%+ of their market value).

This has given an opportunity for some Russians to get very wealthy very fast (& binds them closely to Putin). Even some westerners are buying at firesale prices as big western companies leave the Russian market. This new business class benefits handsomely from current RU policy.

According to the economist, the package of extreme measures by RU technocrats to stabilize the economy “have succeeded far better than their authors might have hoped”. These technocrats were able to 1.) control inflation; 2.) prevent an economic crisis &; 3.) stop a bank run.

In addition, RU was able to increase spending by 7 trillion rubles(₽)in 2022 according to Natalia Zubarevich (economist at Moscow State Univ). Of this ₽2.5T went to pensions, additional pronatalist child allowances & cheap loans & a whopping ₽5T (~$66B) for military spending.

Lower prices for oil and gas towards the end of 2022 and so far in 2023 have definitely hit Russia’s income stream but less than many had hoped. However, the piece interestingly mentions that the large discounts on RU oil to India, China & Turkey small be smaller than reported.

Article closes by stating RU is indeed moving rapidly towards a war economy.Production at the Uralvagonzavod tank plant has grown so rapidly they have drafted in at least 300 prisoners to fill orders. In addition to the economy society is being militarized as well.For a long war.

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@Aaronal16

Feb 23

For generations Saudi Arabia was known as the home of Islams holiest sites & the birthplace of the religion. MBS wants to remake a new Saudi Arabia known as an anything goes place of fun in the desert sun. What could possibly go wrong?🧵on MBS reforms & KSA’s demographic future.

Saudi Arabia & the UAE are rushing to Westernize & crush their TFR as quickly as possible. Here is the plan: 1.) Loosen alcohol laws so more Muslims can drink. 2.) Liberalize social laws on premarital sex & cohabitation. 3.) Raise taxes & lower subsidies for citizens.

Saudi women have opted for the workforce over stuffy & restrictive religious tradition (a potentially empowering thing) & now 37% of women have entered the labor force (up from 17% in 2017).A not misplaced fear of losing jobs & autonomy will keep many from marrying & having kids.

Read 8 tweets

Aaronal

@Aaronal16

Feb 13

Aging of baby boomers is going to cause a job bonanza in the US. Not only will there be 3M annual job openings through retirements but(according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics)there will be 1.9M new jobs in leisure & hospitality & 2.6M new jobs in healthcare btwn 2021-2031.

There will also be(though not related to boomer retirements)8M new Service industry jobs.The US labor force as a whole is projected to grow from 161.2M to 166.5 million in 2031 (there are likely to be job losses in other industries like retail & Fed Gov). bls.gov/opub/mlr/2022/…

This labor force growth in the United States is in stark contrast to many other developed countries (from Italy to South Korea to Germany to China to Japan) where the labor force is expected to shrink by 2031.

Read 4 tweets

Aaronal

@Aaronal16

Feb 11

California is facing a massive demographic crisis. The largest state in the Union has seen its TFR fall faster than most, dropping from 2.15 in 2008 to 1.52 in 2020 (the lowest ever recorded in CA) that’s from 17th highest to 43rd highest in the nation.

A potential demographic collapse in the most populous state in the US will have severe economic & social consequences. The state will struggle to pay pensions and other liabilities in coming decades & their entire growth model is at risk as immigration slows.

Note: by largest, I was implying in terms of population & economy, not geographical size. Alaska & Texas are far larger in size than California.

Read 5 tweets

Aaronal

@Aaronal16

Jan 22

Poland is building what will become one of the strongest armies in NATO. They agreed to purchase 250 Abrams in early 2022 followed by another order for 116 in December. Plus they ordered 180 ROK K-2 Black Panther MBTs in a multi billion dollar deal. thedefensepost.com/2023/01/04/pol…

In addition, 820 K2PL Black Panthers are planned to be produced in Poland from 2026 onwards. Poland is just the latest example of an armed forces modernizing with American & South Korean kit rather than German (the bulk of Poland’s modern MBTs are currently Leopard 2s).

Türkiye has shifted away from both Germany & the US. It has also partnered with South Korea and is producing components for their KAI KF-21 Boramae fighter aircraft & has also signed an agreement to domestically produce their own variant of the K-2 Black Panther, the Altay MBT.

Read 6 tweets

Aaronal

@Aaronal16

Jan 21

This graphic aptly illustrates which countries are in the most trouble vis a vis their growing pension obligations, economic prospects &/or likelihood of becoming a high tax gerontocracy. Any country whose population is >25% age 65 & better by 2050 is in for a fiscal reckoning.

The EU powerhouses of Germany & France being above this critical level provide further evidence of that union’s fading economic importance. Poland is also above 30% & Italy is almost certain to be well above that level as well.

Brazil is also facing a 3X increase in the number of elderly in 2050 in comparison to 2014. Many reforms to their pension system will be needed to keep it viable.

Read 4 tweets

Aaronal

@Aaronal16

Jan 16

The Congressional Budget Office's latest demographic outlook report is sobering. Natural growth in the United States is set to be consistently negative starting in the 2040s. Compared to CBO’s 2021 projections the population will be smaller & grow even more slowly on average.

According to CBO's projections,the fertility rate of the United States will slowly rise between now & 2030 to 1.75 & then remain roughly stable at that level into the 2050s. They expect far less births to women in their 20s & far more to women in their 30s in the coming decades.

CBO also estimates that under current law annual net immigration to the United States will rise from ~950,000 people in the first decade of the projection period to ~1,100,000 million people by the third decade.

Read 7 tweets

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