We are seeing a trend of more & more countries seeing many more immigrants while having less births. Australia, Canada & Singapore to name just a few. Will the United States follow this path? If so we are likely to see an epic pensions crisis when these immigrants age. The fact that many of the most highly skilled immigrants have some of the lowest fertility rates is worth discussing as well. In the US, Canada, the UK and Australian skilled Indian, Chinese,Vietnamese & Filipino immigrants have low TFR(often lower than in their home countries).

The state of Gen Z mental health should be setting off alarms everywhere.A generation is coming of age where almost 1/2 believe they can’t do anything right,do not enjoy life,& who do not feel their lives are useful.A staggering 1/5th of 18-25 year olds are unsatisfied with life.

As Jean Twenge pointed out in her recent book “Generations”, “There is a full-blown mental health crisis among young people, and it was building long before the pandemic.”. The # of teens and young adults with clinical-level depression more than doubled between 2011 and 2021:

Back in 1950 Armenia(then a Soviet Socialist Republic of the USSR)was a tiny nation of just~1.35M people. However,they were also on the cusp of the 1st of 2 baby booms that would transform they country & nearly triple the population.1951 alone saw ~15% yoy ⬆️ in births over 1950! From there the first boom really started to take off. Between 1956-1966 Armenia saw 60K+ births annually & TFR was 4.0 or higher from 1958-1963. The second boom was even more impressive. The country saw 70K+ births from 1980-1992 & hit an all time high of 81,192 births in 1986.

Brazil is the second largest country by population & economic size in the Americas so their demographic future is of immense consequence. For ~two decades their fertility rate has been below replacement.This🧵will look at why that is & where the likely demographic bottom will be. So why has Brazilian fertility fallen below replacement? Several figures likely contribute. Brazil has long been one of the most urbanized countries in the world & is currently ~80% urban. In addition, Brazilian society has become more socially liberal towards relationships.

In order to understand why people have so few kids now compared to previous generations in the United States it is incredibly instructive to look at the conditions that gave rise to the baby boom & how they differ almost completely from those today. The youngest members of the Greatest Generation (1910-1927) & almost the whole of the Silent Generation (1928-1945) married young (~half of women married as teenagers!) & had lots of kids. This was in part due to a demographic phenomena known as the spillover effect.

Debt & demographics set to doom Europe starting in the late 2020s to 2030s. Instead of trying to get ahead of the looming fiscal reckoning rapid aging will bring, Europe is ramping up spending in a host of areas: economist.com/europe/2023/05… From massive subsidies on climate schemes to European NATO members scrambling to raise defense spending to reach the 2% of GDP target, Europe is increasing such spending amid heightened interest rates & on the eve of a massive projected increase in pension spending.

Of the 13M Ukrainians who fled in the opening months of the war more than 5.5M have returned. Many have even come back to cities near the front line like Kramatorsk & Pokrovsk(a city in Donetsk with a prewar population of 50K which now houses 57K): nytimes.com/2023/05/07/wor… How many Ukrainians(particularly young children+those 18-30)return will be crucial in determining the future viability of Ukraine. Longer the war continues+the more rooted Ukrainian refugees become in their new homes abroad the more distant the chances of national revitalization.

There were 23,179 babies born in South Korea in January 2023,a 6% decrease compared to last year,according to a report released by Statistics Korea on Wednesday. That is the fewest recorded births in January since the agency began data compilation in 1981: koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/03/23/bus… However, there is also some good news. There were 17,926 marriages in January, a 21.5% on-year increase. As there are very few out of wedlock births in South Korea a huge rise in marriages ahead of 2024 may bode well for an increase in births during the year of the Dragon.

Taiwan became an ‘ageing society’ in 1993, an ‘aged society’ in 2018 and will become a ‘super-aged’ society in 2025. Share of the population aged 65 plus increased from 2.5% in the 1950s to 17.56% in 2021 & is set to rise to 20% in just two years from now. eastasiaforum.org/2023/03/04/tai… Taiwanese fertility dropped like a rock since 2000. From 1.68 in 2000 to 1.24 in 2003 to 1.05 in 2008 to just 0.90 in 2010. The 2010 TFR prompted the Taiwanese government to introduce pronatalist measures in 2010+2012 which briefly lifted TFR to 1.17-1.18 range for a few years.

According to this Economist article Russia may be entering into a "doom loop of demographic decline". They argue the war is exacerbating things through increasing casualties & the flight of so many young & educated 🧵: economist.com/europe/2023/03… The piece cites our friend @AIRaksha1 (a former employee of Rosstat,who has provided very useful insights here on Russian data from time to time)in stating that the number of Russian births in April 2022 was the lowest since the 18th century(when looking at just peacetime years).

Eagerly awaiting EU preliminary birth estimates for 2022. 2021 saw an estimated 4,086,056 births across the block according to Eurostat. If 2022 saw just a ~3% decline then the EU recorded less than 4M births for the first time in its history. In 1900 just three European countries (the UK, Italy & Germany) recorded more births than the entire 27 country EU saw in 2021. Sub-replacement TFR across much of EU since the 1970s has done its work. Europeans have woken up to this crisis decades too late.

There is a preliminary birth number floating around for 2022 Ukrainian births. It claims there were 195,000 births that year. ~8M Ukrainians fled (including many thousands of pregnant women). Also the Ukrainian population under government control fell to under 30M. Thus it is almost impossible to accurately capture TFR for 2022 & will be harder still for 2023. True Ukrainian TFR (when adjusting for an accurate population that was far less than the 41M in 2021 used to calculate TFR) in 2021 was likely closer to 1.4 and not the ~1.2 reported.

The Japanese government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has announced a three pillared approach to combat demographic decline & increase births in what it promised will be an "unprecedented" set of measures. Brief thread looking at the policies in detail. asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia… The first pillar entails an expansion of financial aid, such as increasing or broadening allowances for households with kids. The government currently offers ¥10-15K ($75 to $113) monthly for each child until age 15, with some limitations on higher-income families.

Demographics will hold Poland back from great power status. While there is a not insignificant chance Poland can get TFR to 1.8 by 2030, this will not be enough. Poland is aging rapidly & Ukrainian immigrants offer nothing but a temporary fill up(one that has been much oversold). By 2030s Poland will likely see a natural decline of at least 150,000 annually. There will also be more Poles leaving the workforce than entering (before immigration) as aging continues rapidly. Poland was already amongst the fastest aging Eastern Euro countries from 2012-2022.

In desperation for couples to have more babies Sichuan Province (China's 5th most populous)has removed all limits on the number of children people can have. Even unmarried parents qualify & also receive paid paternity leave and reimbursed hospital bills.nytimes.com/2023/02/26/wor… Some Chinese women argue that recent Chinese birth incentives reinforce discrimination against women as some companies have responded to the three child policy with job listings explicitly seeking men or women who have already had children to avoid paying maternity leave.

Interesting article on how Russia has been able to both dodge economic catastrophe+repurpose their economy despite sanctions. Traders in more RU friendly countries help them get restricted goods & ⬆️ trade with China,India & Turkey is replacing the EU. economist.com/europe/2023/02… According to the IMF, Russian GDP only contracted by 2.2% in 2022 against early western estimates of a 10% collapse made in the Spring of that year. In addition, the IMF predicts the Russian economy will grow by 0.3% this year, higher than both Germany & the UK.

For generations Saudi Arabia was known as the home of Islams holiest sites & the birthplace of the religion. MBS wants to remake a new Saudi Arabia known as an anything goes place of fun in the desert sun. What could possibly go wrong?🧵on MBS reforms & KSA’s demographic future. Saudi Arabia & the UAE are rushing to Westernize & crush their TFR as quickly as possible. Here is the plan: 1.) Loosen alcohol laws so more Muslims can drink. 2.) Liberalize social laws on premarital sex & cohabitation. 3.) Raise taxes & lower subsidies for citizens.

Aging of baby boomers is going to cause a job bonanza in the US. Not only will there be 3M annual job openings through retirements but(according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics)there will be 1.9M new jobs in leisure & hospitality & 2.6M new jobs in healthcare btwn 2021-2031. There will also be(though not related to boomer retirements)8M new Service industry jobs.The US labor force as a whole is projected to grow from 161.2M to 166.5 million in 2031 (there are likely to be job losses in other industries like retail & Fed Gov). bls.gov/opub/mlr/2022/…

California is facing a massive demographic crisis. The largest state in the Union has seen its TFR fall faster than most, dropping from 2.15 in 2008 to 1.52 in 2020 (the lowest ever recorded in CA) that’s from 17th highest to 43rd highest in the nation. A potential demographic collapse in the most populous state in the US will have severe economic & social consequences. The state will struggle to pay pensions and other liabilities in coming decades & their entire growth model is at risk as immigration slows.

Poland is building what will become one of the strongest armies in NATO. They agreed to purchase 250 Abrams in early 2022 followed by another order for 116 in December. Plus they ordered 180 ROK K-2 Black Panther MBTs in a multi billion dollar deal. thedefensepost.com/2023/01/04/pol… In addition, 820 K2PL Black Panthers are planned to be produced in Poland from 2026 onwards. Poland is just the latest example of an armed forces modernizing with American & South Korean kit rather than German (the bulk of Poland’s modern MBTs are currently Leopard 2s).

This graphic aptly illustrates which countries are in the most trouble vis a vis their growing pension obligations, economic prospects &/or likelihood of becoming a high tax gerontocracy. Any country whose population is >25% age 65 & better by 2050 is in for a fiscal reckoning. The EU powerhouses of Germany & France being above this critical level provide further evidence of that union’s fading economic importance. Poland is also above 30% & Italy is almost certain to be well above that level as well.