Thread by @rhemrajani9

The markets this past week 🧵…

- PCE
- Housing markets 🏠
- Inflation 🛍️
- Earnings / Guidance 💸
- Retail investors
- $SPX 📊
- AI stocks 🤖
- Headcount vs $SPX
- Financial conditions 💰
- Fed funds 📊
- $USD / $DXY 💵

Let’s dig in below, if helpful please RT 🔀… read on 👇

PCE feds preferred inflation measure comes in 🔥 than expected.

Per @benjaminMlavine “First YOY PCE increase since September. Only 6 of 61 economists surveyed by Bbg had a 1.8% personal spending forecast. Establishment caught off guard by the #bigflip”

Another datapoint that saw a recent bounce - used cars 🚗 chart by @Lvieweconomics

Was discussing this as chatted on PCE this a.m. #bigflip @eliant_capital

Mortgage apps ⬇️ but new home sales still 🆙

New 🏠s yesterday reported at 670k vs exp 620k

Inflation around the world 👇

Growth on earnings turns negative ? $SPX

Chart by : @LizYoungStrat

Another view on earnings provided by @CameronDawson 👇 $SPX

Retail investors piling back into the markets. 🛍️

Who misses January 2021 times?

$SPX sitting at a key level with moving averages crossing over. 50d and 200d mark. Tick tock. ⏳⌛️

Chart by @jsblokland

Seems like AI is the buzzword replacing metaverse this year.

$NVDA up almost $200b in market cap this year. They mentioned “AI” 91 times in their earnings call.

We continue to see a resilient labor market even with tech layoffs continuing.

But do we need so many workers? Interesting chart below 👇

Financial conditions 💰charted back to Aug 2022.

You think the markets bottomed?

If that was the case, meaning jobs, financial conditions, credit spreads and earnings are ok, why should the Fed pivot anytime soon?

And if they pivot will they be doing so to save something from breaking ?

If something breaks, the markets ___

https://twitter.com/rhemrajani9/status/1628168223936897024

Has the dollar peaked ? It looks like it for now, but @JLinWins thinks something could be brewing … 🫕

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