Rahul Profile picture
Feb 25 15 tweets 7 min read
The markets this past week 🧵…

- PCE
- Housing markets 🏠
- Inflation 🛍️
- Earnings / Guidance 💸
- Retail investors
- $SPX 📊
- AI stocks 🤖
- Headcount vs $SPX
- Financial conditions 💰
- Fed funds 📊
- $USD / $DXY 💵

Let’s dig in below, if helpful please RT 🔀… read on 👇
PCE feds preferred inflation measure comes in 🔥 than expected.

Per @benjaminMlavine “First YOY PCE increase since September. Only 6 of 61 economists surveyed by Bbg had a 1.8% personal spending forecast. Establishment caught off guard by the #bigflip
Another datapoint that saw a recent bounce - used cars 🚗 chart by @Lvieweconomics

Was discussing this as chatted on PCE this a.m. #bigflip @eliant_capital
Mortgage apps ⬇️ but new home sales still 🆙

New 🏠s yesterday reported at 670k vs exp 620k
Inflation around the world 👇
Growth on earnings turns negative ? $SPX

Chart by : @LizYoungStrat
Another view on earnings provided by @CameronDawson 👇 $SPX
Retail investors piling back into the markets. 🛍️

Who misses January 2021 times?
$SPX sitting at a key level with moving averages crossing over. 50d and 200d mark. Tick tock. ⏳⌛️

Chart by @jsblokland
Seems like AI is the buzzword replacing metaverse this year.

$NVDA up almost $200b in market cap this year. They mentioned “AI” 91 times in their earnings call.
We continue to see a resilient labor market even with tech layoffs continuing.

But do we need so many workers? Interesting chart below 👇
Financial conditions 💰charted back to Aug 2022.
You think the markets bottomed?

If that was the case, meaning jobs, financial conditions, credit spreads and earnings are ok, why should the Fed pivot anytime soon?

And if they pivot will they be doing so to save something from breaking ?

If something breaks, the markets ___
Has the dollar peaked ? It looks like it for now, but @JLinWins thinks something could be brewing … 🫕
If you found this 🧵 useful please:

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2. Sign up for a 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞 newsletter providing daily market highlights - > ( @TheOneRead ) TheOneRead.com
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More from @rhemrajani9

Feb 19
🛬🚨🛩️: How are we going to land?

“Powell: "You fly, right? Sometimes the landing is perfect. Sometimes the landing is a bit bumpy. It's still a good landing." - back in May

Historically extensive rate hike cycles don’t end well. So how is a soft landing possible?

Read on… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
🛬 Landing? #Bigflip ? Soft landing?

What does this all even mean ⁉️

Great overview by @benjaminMlavine to help set the foundation 👇. $SPX $QQQ
The fed pivot has quickly turned into a fed pause for longer. Markets don’t typically bottom 📉 while rates are 📈.

Another chart to illustrate in the following tweet.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 18
Market round up 🧵📍…

▪️Inflation 📊
▪️Fed funds rate 💸
▪️Retail sales 🛍️
▪️Earnings yields vs T-bills
▪️Options
▪️Tail risks ⚠️
▪️US budget deficit vs GDP 💰
▪️Household savings 🏦
▪️PPI

📬 daily free 🗞️ is live!—> TheOneRead.com <—

Let’s dive in 👇 $SPX $QQQ 🔂
Inflation came in at 6.4% this past week shelter being part of the reason 🏠. ImageImage
Very interesting 📊 on the fed funds rate 👇
Read 13 tweets
Jan 28
Soft landing 𝙤𝙧 Fed forces a recession?

🧵 which will cover:

▪️ GDP
▪️ Inflation
▪️ Financial conditions
▪️ Risks if we pause early
▪️ 📊 $SPX and $QQQ 📊
▪️ $DXY and FX
▪️ Feds balance sheet
▪️ Earnings
▪️ Unemployment and jobs
▪️ Consumer spending

Let’s dive in! 👇🔂
Advanced GDP and annualized GDP prints came in this week. Data looks more positive and headed in the right direction.
Has CPI peaked ? Which components of inflation stay stickier ?

Next couple FOMC decisions are critical, the last thing the Fed wants is inflation to creep back up.

CPI and Core data 📊👇
Read 12 tweets
Jan 23
𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫 🧵…

In this thread ⬇️ you’ll find:

▪️ $TSLA earnings estimates + 📊
▪️ $MSFT earnings estimates
▪️ Wall Street tech profits outlook
▪️ $SPX earnings dashboard
▪️ $SPX P/E 2023 projections

If this is helpful, be sure to RT 🔂

Read below 👇
(1/8🧵) $TSLA earnings snapshot:

EPS estimate: $1.127
Revenue estimate: $24.065B
Forward PE current: 31x
Avg analyst price target: $190.10

🗓 Reporting on Wednesday!
(2/8🧵) $MSFT earnings snapshot:

EPS estimate: $2.296
Revenue estimate: $52.94B
Forward PE current: 24.7x
Avg analyst price target: $288.45

🗓 Reporting on Tuesday!
Read 9 tweets
Dec 29, 2022
🚨When will the market 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺?

If you use this historical data as a guide, $SPX is down ~20% ytd so another 12% decline would bring us to avg drawdown.

And from bottom it takes an avg of 21 months just to come back to previous top. 😮

Cont’d… 🧵
So if the decline started March 2022 we would bottom somewhere early to middle of next year.

But wait, for us to bottom we probably also need a Fed pivot.

And historically, markets drop ⬇️ after a pivot before finding the next leg up.

So will the Fed pause in 23’ and when?
Another interesting data point on the market bottom $SPX
Read 7 tweets
Dec 6, 2022
𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 - 5 videos (📣) from:

▪️ $JPM CEO Jamie Dimon
▪️ $GS CEO David Solomon
▪️ Bridgewater CIO Rebecca Patterson
▪️ Stanley Druckenmiller
▪️ Bill Ackman @BillAckman

Fed funds, inflation, global economy & more.

Thread 🧵- If helpful, RT :) 🔂
Per $JPM Dimon:

▪️ “Consumer is spending 10% more then last year, and 40% more then pre covid.”

▪️ $1.5T in checking account savings (consumer)

▪️ “Another risk you have to look at is quantitive tightening. We’ve never had it before. Ever in the lifetime of mankind.”
Per $GS Solomon:

▪️ “Uncertain time given we are changing monetary and economic conditions very very quickly. And that’s certainly having an impact to slowing down economic activity.”

▪️Chances of soft landing uncertain. “I certainly think we can see a recession in 2023 also.”
Read 9 tweets

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