Thread by @TrentTelenko

If this report is true. It's a "BIG THING"

The Russian VKS operational fleet of A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) planes is very small.

Air Fleet Logistics🧵
1/13

https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1629892960996282376

The airforce-technology -dot-com website states the following about the VKS A-50U fleet:

"The A-50 entered service with the Russian Air Force in 1984. Currently, 16 aircraft are operational in the Russian Air Force.

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airforce-technology.com/projects/a50/

...The upgraded version, the A-50U was first announced in 1995 but did not enter testing until 2008. It then entered service in 2011. The upgraded A-50Us have extended the aircraft’s the service life to 2020."

Not all VKS A-50 are A-50U.

3/13

The more recent wikipedia entry on the A-50 says only seven of the newer A-50U were delivered by December 2021.

See text:

"After completing the joint state tests, Beriev has delivered the first A-50U to the Russian Air Force. The aircraft,
4/13

..."47 Krasnyy'"RF-92957, was handed over at Beriev's facility in Taganrog on 31 October 2011.[9] It was accepted by an aircrew serving with the 2457th Aviation Base for Combat Operation of Airborne Early Warning Aircraft (Aviabaza Boevogo Primeneniya Samolyotov...

5/13

...Dal'nego Radiolokatsionnogo Obnaruzheniya) at Ivanovo Severny, which is the only base using the A-50 operationally (it operates 16 aircraft).[8] The fourth A-50U, "41 Taganrog", was delivered to the Russian Aerospace Forces on 7 March 2017. The fifth A-50U,...

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... "45 Krasnyy", was delivered on 6 December 2018. 7 aircraft have been delivered as of December 2021.[10]"

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beriev_A-…
7/13

So we are looking at 1/16th of the total A-50 fleet and 1/7th of the A-50U fleet getting destroyed.

It takes four AEW&C airframes to maintain a 24/7 orbit on an extended basis with overlaps to cover regular hand offs and surging a 2nd airframe higher threat periods...

8/13

...with aerial tanker support.

AEW&C coverage is a logistical marathon event.

You simply can't go below that number of AEW&C planes, four, supporting a single orbit because the demands on maintenance & regular relief of skilled crew will make them wasting assets.

9/13

Given that there is only one A-50 airbase in Russia and this destroyed A-50U was operating 1n Belarus.

You likely just saw all the best and newest electronic line replaceable units (LRU) pulled from the other six A-50U of the A-50U fleet go up in flames in Belarus.

10/13

Given that we are a year into the Russo-Ukrainian War and 10(+) months into comprehensive Western sanctions on electronics sales to the Russian Federation.

The Russian ability to maintain a single 24/7 A-50U orbit for more than a week inside Russia is highly doubtful.

11/13

This will make Ukrainian PSU sorties with JDAM-ER in the South of Ukraine much less risky going forward.

Since this JDAM-ER article is spreading virally in the UA defense & social media spheres:

en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tec…
12/13

I think what we just saw with this 'Belarus partisan attack' was a Ukrainian "Shaping Operation for future PSU JDAM-ER sorties against Russian positions after the spring mud season ends and the Ukrainian counter-offensive season kicks off.

13/13 End