1. Stay home if sick 2. Avoid crowded non-essential places 3. Mask to protect others (and yourself) 4. Offer to help people at higher risk with things like essential shopping. 5. Update vaccine
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 106 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 106 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23
TERRE NEUVE LABRADOR
ÉLEVÉ
~1 personne sur 106 est infectée
Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux
Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23
ÎLE DU PRINCE-ÉDOUARD
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ
~1 personne sur 205 infectée
Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux
Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
HIGH
About 1 in every 205 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: similar
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~8X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023
NOVA SCOTIA
SEVERE
About 1 in every 34 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23
NOUVELLE-ÉCOSSE
GRAVE
~1 personne sur 34 infectée
Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux
Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Remember that as infections increase in multiple Canadian regions, hospitalizations then deaths will also increase.
The COVID Forecast score is based on all 3 of these input, not just infections.
Hang in there--be careful about your choices right now, if/when you have them.
If we don't see a new, more infectious variant arise after XBB.1.5 things might start to improve.
Nothing on the horizon yet, but XBB.1.5 took a while to gain a foothold in Canada.
Other countries like the UK are also seeing increasing infections again now linked to XBB.1.5.
Canada is not alone in this problem.
Cross every digit you have hoping we don't see a new, more transmissible variant emerge.
And if it's been 6 months since your last vaccine dose or infection, get a new dose now, if your province permits it.
It likely took a while for XBB.1.5 to get traction because enough of us had some protection against infection from fall boosters and/or infections.
Protection vs new infection from both will be wearing off now, leaving enough susceptible people that we can have a new surge/wave.
And if you can get a new dose 3 months after infection or your last dose, do it, especially if you're higher risk.
We're likely in for another period of high levels of infection across the country (and already are in some provinces).
Crossing every digit hoping that this is the last surge/wave for a while, and that it's not as big as the BA.5 wave this summer, which was associated with high levels of excess mortality.
We're not hearing the same level of news/chatter about ERs closing, cold medication flying off shelves.
But, some provinces are experiencing illness-related staff shortages in multiple sectors, which is usually a decent sign that COVID is making the rounds again.
In provinces that report staff and student absences due to illness, the absentee rate is again pretty high, at least in some provinces.
So, keep all this in mind and know that we'll likely have a bit of a rough go again for a while.
Help others, especially those most at risk. Offer to run errands.
And if you're in an essential public space like a pharmacy or grocery store or bank, consider putting a mask on to help make others feel better about wearing theirs.
People are social creatures. We take our cues from others, and most of us don't want to stand out or be judged as different.
Even if you don't feel you need to mask (although you should!), please help others who really need to mask feel better about doing it.
Signing off till tonight.
Take care of each other. You matter. Everyone matters.
#CovidIsAirborne #CovidIsntOver #MaskUp #YallMasking #CleanTheAir #CovidCautious
Holiday Dance Night
Risk Scenario Estimator Based on Canadian Forecast
The full thread is also available on the C-19 website, starting on page 8, for easier reading.
Note: Forecast data will be posted on the weekend, those pages on the website have not been updated.
Holiday Dance Night
Nanny and her diabetic teen granddaughter are a high risk household. Because they are vulnerable, they have to miss inside family gatherings much more than they’d like in order to protect themselves . They both would love to celebrate with the rest of their friends and family on New Years Eve at the community Holiday Dance Night.
But is there any way to make it safe enough for them?
Many of us know, live with, or are vulnerable. We have a lot of people in our communities who are immune compromised, immune suppressed, or have long COVID. People who have to be extra careful about infections. It’s a lonely journey to keep safe these days, often having to stay away from events with crowds.
So, just how risky are those community gatherings?
There’s a Dance Night at the high school gym coming up. About 60 folks dancing to tunes for a couple hours, it would be so much fun to join in.
The Data Card, “Family Holiday Dinner - Before”, shows how wise it is for everyone to mask while visiting inside.
We looked at a group of 10 people, you’re one of them, gathering for a 3 hour visit. People are chatting, but it’s mostly a quiet group enjoying each other’s company.
The scenario uses an average size dining room, 16 x 32. The airflow is well mixed among this and the other rooms and the outside doors are closed.
What can you do?
What can you do? Open the windows.
What can you do?
You can make your event even more safe by providing rapid tests beforehand and N95 masks as people arrive. This lets everyone know that you care about their health.
What else can you do?
Set up an Outside Food Zone. ™
If the weather is, ahem, wintery, and you have the resources, get a fire pit going.
Explore other ways to warm the space, maybe candles, those amazing patio heaters, or a tether ball to kick to warm everyone up. Don’t forget to provide gloves and blankets too.
Create an inviting space for people to bring their food out, unmask, safely eat at a distance from the crowd. When they’re ready they can join the folks inside again knowing that they are helping to keep everyone safe.
The “Family Holiday Dinner - Before” Card shows the maximum risk people that take on. We’re using the safest estimate for one-off events that often have visitors from away, may include a super spreader, and carry higher potential risks.
Your most vulnerable people will want to use these estimates since, for us, it’s best to assess risk by assuming the worst.