Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Feb 27 54 tweets 17 min read
The Feb 26-Mar 4 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: NB, NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, MB, QC, SK
HIGH: AB, North, ON, PEI
ELEVATED: NL

About 1 in 43 people is currently infected in Canada.

Data, weekly report here: covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i… This image shows a series of gauges with the February 26 to
Here's the link to the folder where you can find downloadable png and jpeg versions of all our graphics.

Shortform graphics are available in English et en francais.

Longform en francais a venir.

drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
And here's where you can sign up to join any of our free, evening, anonymous (if you want) kitchen table-style Zoom discussions with scientists.

Remember: No question is too small. No question is silly. YOU matter, and we're here to provide support.

covid19resources.ca/discussions/
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

CANADA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 43 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast, which is p
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

CANADA

EXTRÊMEMENT ÉLEVÉ

~1 personne sur 43 est infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux

Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

CANADA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 43 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~10X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~3X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
CANADA: Feb 26-Mar 4

About 1 in 43 people are infected this week.

You can help:

1. Stay home if sick
2. Avoid crowded non-essential places
3. Mask to protect others (and yourself)
4. Offer to help people at higher risk with things like essential shopping.
5. Update vaccine A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada has 3 sma
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 106 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Newfoun
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 106 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Newfoun
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

TERRE NEUVE LABRADOR

ÉLEVÉ
~1 personne sur 106 est infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux

Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 106 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~2X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

HIGH

About 1 in every 205 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Prince
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

ÎLE DU PRINCE-ÉDOUARD
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ
~1 personne sur 205 infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux
Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

HIGH

About 1 in every 205 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: similar
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~8X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE

About 1 in every 34 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nova Sc
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

NOUVELLE-ÉCOSSE

GRAVE

~1 personne sur 34 infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux

Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE

About 1 in every 34 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: ~12X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~8X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

About 1 in every 49 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for New Bru
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

NOUVEAU BRUNSWICK

GRAVE

~1 personne sur 49 infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux

Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

About 1 in every 49 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~9X higher
🟡Deaths ~11X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

QUÉBEC

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 38 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Quebec,
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

QUÉBEC

EXTRÊMEMENT ÉLEVÉ

~1 personne sur 38 infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux

Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

QUÉBEC

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 38 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: ~11X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~9X higher
🟡Deaths SIMILAR This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

ONTARIO

HIGH

About 1 in every 39 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Ontario
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

ONTARIO

TRÈS ÉLEVÉ

~1 personne sur 39 infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux

Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

ONTARIO

HIGH

About 1 in every 39 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: ~10X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

MANITOBA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 65 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Manitob
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

MANITOBA

EXTRÊMEMENT ÉLEVÉ

~1 personne sur 65 infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux

Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

MANITOBA

HIGH

About 1 in every 65 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: ~9X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 72 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Saskatc
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

SASKATCHEWAN

EXTRÊMEMENT ÉLEVÉ

~1 personne sur 72 infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux

Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 72 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~8X higher
🟡Deaths ~3X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

ALBERTA

HIGH

About 1 in every 67 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Alberta
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

ALBERTA

TRÈS ÉLEVÉ

~1 personne sur 67 infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux

Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

ALBERTA

HIGH

About 1 in every 67 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~5X higher
🟡Deaths SIMILAR This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 43 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for British
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

C.-B.

EXTRÊMEMENT ÉLEVÉ

~1 personne sur 43 infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux

Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 43 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: ~10X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

HIGH

About 1 in every 61 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the Nor
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23

NT, T.N.-O., YN

TRÈS ÉLEVÉ

~1 personne sur 61 infectée

Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux

Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

HIGH

About 1 in every 61 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

HIGH

About 1 in every 61 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~3X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Remember that as infections increase in multiple Canadian regions, hospitalizations then deaths will also increase.

The COVID Forecast score is based on all 3 of these input, not just infections.

Hang in there--be careful about your choices right now, if/when you have them.
If we don't see a new, more infectious variant arise after XBB.1.5 things might start to improve.

Nothing on the horizon yet, but XBB.1.5 took a while to gain a foothold in Canada.

Other countries like the UK are also seeing increasing infections again now linked to XBB.1.5.
Canada is not alone in this problem.

Cross every digit you have hoping we don't see a new, more transmissible variant emerge.

And if it's been 6 months since your last vaccine dose or infection, get a new dose now, if your province permits it.
It likely took a while for XBB.1.5 to get traction because enough of us had some protection against infection from fall boosters and/or infections.

Protection vs new infection from both will be wearing off now, leaving enough susceptible people that we can have a new surge/wave.
And if you can get a new dose 3 months after infection or your last dose, do it, especially if you're higher risk.

We're likely in for another period of high levels of infection across the country (and already are in some provinces).
Crossing every digit hoping that this is the last surge/wave for a while, and that it's not as big as the BA.5 wave this summer, which was associated with high levels of excess mortality.
We're not hearing the same level of news/chatter about ERs closing, cold medication flying off shelves.

But, some provinces are experiencing illness-related staff shortages in multiple sectors, which is usually a decent sign that COVID is making the rounds again.
In provinces that report staff and student absences due to illness, the absentee rate is again pretty high, at least in some provinces.

So, keep all this in mind and know that we'll likely have a bit of a rough go again for a while.
Help others, especially those most at risk. Offer to run errands.

And if you're in an essential public space like a pharmacy or grocery store or bank, consider putting a mask on to help make others feel better about wearing theirs.
People are social creatures. We take our cues from others, and most of us don't want to stand out or be judged as different.

Even if you don't feel you need to mask (although you should!), please help others who really need to mask feel better about doing it.
Signing off till tonight.

Take care of each other. You matter. Everyone matters.
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More from @MoriartyLab

Feb 27
Hi all,

I'm having a lot of trouble posting to twitter with pictures, so will have to try doing the Canadian COVID Forecast tomorrow morning.

Thinking about starting sessions to help followers move to Mastodon, where at least I don't seem to have trouble posting :(
I'll pin the thread to my profile when it's done.

But in the mean time, you can actually find all the graphics in the folder here:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
And the updated weekly COVID report is here:

Well....I can't load our website either, but I suspect it's my internet, not necessarily Twitter.

Here's the main page. Go to "Public Resources".

covid19resources.ca
Read 11 tweets
Feb 25
It's "official". Canada has started a new wave.

It can be seen in models for BC, NB, NS, ON, QC and Northern territories.

It's likely it's happening elsewhere too, but available data are not sufficiently recent/ or it's a tad early to see upward trends.

Please act accordingly.
The COVID Forecast for Canada, which is based not just on waste water and estimated infections, but also on hospitalizations, deaths etc is also definitively increasing.

I'll post these for each province and the North tomorrow. Just have to give the graphics team time.
We're at a point where the forecast score hasn't increased by more than 10% since last week (our threshold to declare that it's increasing), largely because not all provinces are moving up yet.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 23
Hi folks,

I'm cancelling tonight's @COVID_19_Canada Conversation.

My mom's home in the GTA has a VERY fast-spreading COVID outbreak and she had a seizure this morning (happened last time she had COVID).
@COVID_19_Canada She's still testing negative and her oxygen is ok, which was linked to the seizure last time.

But, I'm trying to get work done if she tests positive and has to isolate. She feels distressed if she's on her own, so I'm preparing for needing to be there for multiple days in a row.
@COVID_19_Canada And it may not be COVID, but given the situation there right now, I think it's only a matter of time before she and others in her unit test positive.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 20
The Feb 19-25 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: NB, NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, MB, ON
HIGH: NL, PEI, QC, SK
ELEVATED: AB, North

About 1 in 43 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. New surge/wave has started in multiple provinces. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast, which is p
Here's the link to the folder where you can find downloadable png and jpeg versions of all our graphics.

Shortform graphics are available in English et en francais.

Longform en francais a venir.

drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
Here's the link to our full weekly Canadian COVID data report: covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
Read 33 tweets
Feb 19
Seeking help from scientists, journalists anyone who may have been archiving COVID-19 epidemiologic reports for Nova Scotia PRE-March 30, 2022.

If these exist and you have copies/know where to find them, please let me know.
We're writing a paper on provincial reporting of severe outcomes over the COVID pandemic, and want to make sure our coverage for Nova Scotia includes these reports, in addition to reporting from other official sources and Canadian Critical Care Society.
We're also seeking any official reports we can find for Newfoundland and Labrador, in particular reports that document the numbers of cumulative hospital and ICU admissions by specific dates. Not hopeful about finding more NL sources, in addition to @PeterCBC and journalists.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 12
The Feb 12-18 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, NB, ON, SK
HIGH: MB, NL, North, PEI
ELEVATED: AB, QC

About 1 in 47 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected, with surge expected over next 1-2 weeks. This image shows a series of gauges with the February 12 to
Here's the link where you can download png and jpeg versions of all graphics:
drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
Recommendations this week are still cautious, even for regions where the forecast is currently ELEVATED or HIGH.

Why? Because @INSPQ survey of RAT/PCR+ people for week of Feb 5 found 69% increase compared to week before. It's often the first indicator to go up at start of surges
Read 39 tweets

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