1. Stay home if sick 2. Avoid crowded non-essential places 3. Mask to protect others (and yourself) 4. Offer to help people at higher risk with things like essential shopping. 5. Update vaccine
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 106 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 106 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23
TERRE NEUVE LABRADOR
ÉLEVÉ
~1 personne sur 106 est infectée
Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux
Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23
ÎLE DU PRINCE-ÉDOUARD
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ
~1 personne sur 205 infectée
Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux
Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
HIGH
About 1 in every 205 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases: similar
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~8X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 26-Mar 4, 2023
NOVA SCOTIA
SEVERE
About 1 in every 34 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Prévisions COVID 26 fév-4 mars/23
NOUVELLE-ÉCOSSE
GRAVE
~1 personne sur 34 infectée
Portez un masque, faites votre rappel, évitez lieux publics intérieurs non essentiels, rassemblements sociaux
Risque plus élevé : évitez également rassemblements sociaux en plein air
Remember that as infections increase in multiple Canadian regions, hospitalizations then deaths will also increase.
The COVID Forecast score is based on all 3 of these input, not just infections.
Hang in there--be careful about your choices right now, if/when you have them.
If we don't see a new, more infectious variant arise after XBB.1.5 things might start to improve.
Nothing on the horizon yet, but XBB.1.5 took a while to gain a foothold in Canada.
Other countries like the UK are also seeing increasing infections again now linked to XBB.1.5.
Canada is not alone in this problem.
Cross every digit you have hoping we don't see a new, more transmissible variant emerge.
And if it's been 6 months since your last vaccine dose or infection, get a new dose now, if your province permits it.
It likely took a while for XBB.1.5 to get traction because enough of us had some protection against infection from fall boosters and/or infections.
Protection vs new infection from both will be wearing off now, leaving enough susceptible people that we can have a new surge/wave.
And if you can get a new dose 3 months after infection or your last dose, do it, especially if you're higher risk.
We're likely in for another period of high levels of infection across the country (and already are in some provinces).
Crossing every digit hoping that this is the last surge/wave for a while, and that it's not as big as the BA.5 wave this summer, which was associated with high levels of excess mortality.
We're not hearing the same level of news/chatter about ERs closing, cold medication flying off shelves.
But, some provinces are experiencing illness-related staff shortages in multiple sectors, which is usually a decent sign that COVID is making the rounds again.
In provinces that report staff and student absences due to illness, the absentee rate is again pretty high, at least in some provinces.
So, keep all this in mind and know that we'll likely have a bit of a rough go again for a while.
Help others, especially those most at risk. Offer to run errands.
And if you're in an essential public space like a pharmacy or grocery store or bank, consider putting a mask on to help make others feel better about wearing theirs.
People are social creatures. We take our cues from others, and most of us don't want to stand out or be judged as different.
Even if you don't feel you need to mask (although you should!), please help others who really need to mask feel better about doing it.
Signing off till tonight.
Take care of each other. You matter. Everyone matters.
It can be seen in models for BC, NB, NS, ON, QC and Northern territories.
It's likely it's happening elsewhere too, but available data are not sufficiently recent/ or it's a tad early to see upward trends.
Please act accordingly.
The COVID Forecast for Canada, which is based not just on waste water and estimated infections, but also on hospitalizations, deaths etc is also definitively increasing.
I'll post these for each province and the North tomorrow. Just have to give the graphics team time.
We're at a point where the forecast score hasn't increased by more than 10% since last week (our threshold to declare that it's increasing), largely because not all provinces are moving up yet.
My mom's home in the GTA has a VERY fast-spreading COVID outbreak and she had a seizure this morning (happened last time she had COVID).
@COVID_19_Canada She's still testing negative and her oxygen is ok, which was linked to the seizure last time.
But, I'm trying to get work done if she tests positive and has to isolate. She feels distressed if she's on her own, so I'm preparing for needing to be there for multiple days in a row.
@COVID_19_Canada And it may not be COVID, but given the situation there right now, I think it's only a matter of time before she and others in her unit test positive.
Seeking help from scientists, journalists anyone who may have been archiving COVID-19 epidemiologic reports for Nova Scotia PRE-March 30, 2022.
If these exist and you have copies/know where to find them, please let me know.
We're writing a paper on provincial reporting of severe outcomes over the COVID pandemic, and want to make sure our coverage for Nova Scotia includes these reports, in addition to reporting from other official sources and Canadian Critical Care Society.
We're also seeking any official reports we can find for Newfoundland and Labrador, in particular reports that document the numbers of cumulative hospital and ICU admissions by specific dates. Not hopeful about finding more NL sources, in addition to @PeterCBC and journalists.
Recommendations this week are still cautious, even for regions where the forecast is currently ELEVATED or HIGH.
Why? Because @INSPQ survey of RAT/PCR+ people for week of Feb 5 found 69% increase compared to week before. It's often the first indicator to go up at start of surges