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Feb 28 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Baytex Energy nears $2.5B deal to buy Ranger Oil @Reuters
seekingalpha.com/news/3941527-b…
As I was saying recently, small cap oil and gas companies are the most compelling to me here. Canadian midcaps have large followings these days ...
I was bullish Canadian oil and gas stocks when they were very out of favor. Now I'm even more focused on company specifics. Small cap seems to be where it's at, not the specific Canadian geography / trading jurisdiction.
"Your m&a comments on the pod were prescient" ✅

rosebros.ca/blogs/podcast/…
Baytex before and after this deal announcement? 🤔
Harshest take on this deal that I've seen. #eft

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More from @Josh_Young_1

Josh Young Profile picture
Mar 1
Journey Energy Inc. Announces $15 Million "Bought Deal" Public Offering of Flow-Through Common Shares

Sounds bad, right? The stock is down, must be bad? Checks notes: "at a price ... of $6.62 per Flow-Through Share" - vs current $5.50. I'll take it. ✅ ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/journey-e…
More thoughts. I own the stock, no recommendation.
Unpopular today, but winning over time. I bought a little more $joy.to today. No recommendation, do not rely.
bisoninterests.substack.com/p/alex-verge-i…
Read 5 tweets
Josh Young Profile picture
Feb 28
Baytex to Acquire Eagle Ford Operator Ranger Oil seekingalpha.com/pr/19145063-ba…
Transaction highlights:

I think step-up in direct returns, accretion on key metrics, and the improvement in the asset level free cash flow break-even are the most important positives of this $bte acquisition of $rngr. I don't own either stock, no recommendation. Image
Transaction negatives:

1) Dilution of the most economic oil inventory in North America in the core of the Clearwater.

2) private equity overhang with short lockup

3) $$$ for $rocc shareholders but minimal dividend for $bte.to shareholders
Read 9 tweets
Josh Young Profile picture
Feb 27
Everyone is focused on macro
When there are great opportunities out there
You can guess which one I am. Which are you?
Read 5 tweets
Josh Young Profile picture
Feb 25
Global oil & refined products inventories vs 5 year trailing average. Bullish in the context of rising demand and disappointing supply. Per @IEF_Dialogue @JODI_Data
Looks similar when including 2023 numbers from leading oil data sources and agencies.
"Global demand was at 102 percent of pre-COVID levels in December, while crude production was at 96 percent of pre-pandemic levels." @JODI_Data @IEF_Dialogue
Read 6 tweets
Josh Young Profile picture
Feb 24
Is this why $rrc is up 12% today? Thoughts on if there is a deal happening?!? $pxd
If it's true that $pxd is buying $rrc (I have no idea, just responding to @JamieHeard5's post and the share price movement) what does this mean for $vtle with their huge o&g reserves in close proximity to $pxd? 🤔
Bloomberg: Pioneer Natural Resources Considers Buying Explorer Range

Confirmed in the press I guess?
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
Josh Young Profile picture
Feb 23
Journey increases its per share PDP value by 138% journeyenergy.ca/prelease/12259…
Short interest ratio of Canadian E&Ps. $joy.to is the most heavily shorted. I own the stock, not a recommendation.
"This is the second time in as many years where Journey’s capital program has produced significant growth in NAVPS. In aggregate Journey has increased its producing net asset value per share by over 100% on an annualized basis over the past two years." journeyenergy.ca/prelease/12259…
Read 6 tweets

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