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Josh Young Profile picture
Josh Young
@Josh_Young_1
Contrarian value investor. O&G. Not advice, positioning may change without notice. Seen on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, and in WSJ, Forbes, Barron's, O&G Investor Mag
21 subscribers
Sep 9 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Investment bank commodity research departments are increasingly bearish oil. This is comforting as a contrarian oil bull. Here are a few of their recent forecasts: Goldman: bearish oil
Sep 14, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Stifel on the recent Vital Energy deal:

"While dilutive to our 2024 EV/EBITDA multiple, the transactions are accretive on FCF, leverage, and inventory metrics and provide management increased scale to drive further value through operational and cost of capital synergies."

I generally agree. I own shares of $vtle, no recommendation, do not rely. More from Stifel on Vital:

Valuation and recommendation: We reiterate our Buy rating and 12-month target price of $122.00/share. Image
Sep 13, 2023 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
The CEO of $BP was suddenly and unceremoniously "pushed out" yesterday. Remarkably, the governance portion of ESG is finally receiving media attention: Image This is not a new issue though. In 2021, I highlighted enormous losses and governance failures at Shell $shel. "Seems to be focusing on the E in ESG over the G." seekingalpha.com/article/441983…
Image
Aug 17, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
It's been almost 5 years since we sold Iron Bridge for a 78% premium to its pre-deal price. Time for Bison to get a little more active. 🦬 Public energy company governance needs substantial improvement. Getting ready to do my part again.
Jul 7, 2023 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
Nice treat for a Friday morning - Journey Energy CEO @AlexVergeJOY presented at the OTCQX Best 50 Virtual Investor Conference on June 15th - the recording is up! I'll share some slides, some thoughts and the link. I own shares of $JOY.TO $JRNGF, not a recommendation, do not rely. Alex reminds everyone that Journey is running a buy and exploit business model, which kicked off with buying back debt during Covid at 50c on the dollar, with the backing of AIMco, the leading pension manager in Alberta, which is Journey's largest shareholder & lender
May 31, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
"Nothing is bullish, Josh"

It is darkest before dawn. Bullish oil. Keep them coming...
May 27, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Memorial day weekend, Texas Image Living our best life 🤠 Image
May 17, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Energy conference day. "Hotter 'N Hell," although it's only 73° right now here in Houston. Listening to $ovv and $eqt is fascinating in terms of contrasting business strategies and focuses despite both being E&P businesses. Image EQT: Big drivers of better shale productivity:

1) Longer laterals
2) completion intensity increases
3) efficiency gains

The majority of these have been captured. Less upside going forward.

(Refreshing honesty. Bullish oil and gas)
May 9, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Vital Energy:

First-quarter 2023 production exceeds high-end of guidance

Capital investments for first-quarter 2023 below guidance expectations Full Vital Q1 2023 press release link. I own shares of $vtle, not a recommendation, do not rely.
investor.vitalenergy.com/news-releases/…
May 6, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Iran apparently dumped most of its floating oil storage onto the market in the last three months at large discounts. Net speculative futures market interest has fallen rapidly recently as well
May 5, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It's not a mystery why Buffett has been buying oil stocks. We addressed this topic in depth a year ago: bisoninterests.com/content/f/buff… It's really simple:
Apr 25, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Oil is down 2.5% today on fears of a new Covid wave in China Image I'm trying out sharing daily headline oil price movement explanations. The current headlines aren't great at it, lets see if I can do any better.
Apr 17, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Even if oil demand destruction in a recession is 2x, and even if we enter a recession in the US and Europe this year, world oil inventories may decline precipitously. Oil prices are likely convex to the upside from here. This recent short video addressed the global oil under-supply and inventory issue. And this was before OPEC+ cuts!
Apr 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
"People should invest money with Josh at Bison because they're out-performing the benchmark and the oil industry is starved of capital." Amazing endorsement @hkuppy, thank you!!! twitter.com/i/web/status/1… I wasn't expecting to hear that! I like listening to @hkuppy interviews, and @KYRRadio does great interviews. I'd probably have shared this anyway. Made my day!
open.spotify.com/episode/36TFbz…
Apr 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Vitol, Trafigura, Mercuria, Glencore, and ... Zelensky?!?

"Zelensky has been purchasing "discount diesel" from Russia with American money, and stashing the leftover funds."

Reported by a Pulitzer prize winning journalist. Wild if true.
thepostmillennial.com/zelensky-ukrai… Seems relevant for those responding emotionally to me sharing relevant color on oil smuggling, an important oil macro factor, after checking with oil traders to validate the reasonableness of the claim
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruptio…
Apr 3, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The OPEC+ cut is "not about targeting a certain price, it's about control" But let's not ignore this:
Apr 3, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
BIDEN ON OPEC+ OIL OUTPUT CUT SAYS IT'S NOT AS BAD AS YOU THINK OPEC++

How it started / how it's going ImageImage
Apr 3, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Turning a good day into a great day - got an invitation to the NCAA championship game! Looking forward to checking it out from the nosebleeds while chatting about oil & gas with industry friends! Image Parking-flation Image
Apr 2, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
China oil imports hit 11.1 MMBOPD last month, their all time high. Data > narratives. With China international flights up substantially, China's oil imports may increase further
Apr 2, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Happy OPEC+ cut day, for those who celebrate 7%+ initial WTI oil price pop in the Sunday night market Image
Apr 2, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🚨 OPEC+ oil production cut announced of 1.65 million barrels of oil per day (so far). Reminder that OPEC+ has been substantially under-producing vs quota. The actual production cut is likely to be about half of announced, similar to the cut in October. Still, bullish oil. Speculators in the oil futures market may be offsides on this surprise OPEC+ production cut.