We show that, even with the sizeable coverage of the furlough scheme in PT:
👉unemployment (registrations in public employment offices) increased
👉new job placements decreased during the first months of the pandemic. (2/8)
The dual nature of the Portuguese labour market played a key role:
👉unemployment increased more municipalities with higher share of temporary workers;
👉increases in registrations are mostly driven from individuals whose temporary contract was not renewed and by dismissals (3/8)
Heterogeneity analysis shows:
👉females got fewer new job placements;
👉unemployment increased more for younger people (<34yo) and middle educated (lower and upper secondary);
👉all effects are amplified in municipalities with larger share of temporary workers; (4/8)
We discuss how three mechanisms concur in explaining the results:
👉 Furlough schemes more prevalent in sectors with high % of temporary workers. Firms could not dismiss workers but no restrictions on temporary contract termination. (5/8)
👉Sectors more affected by the crisis (larger contraction of purchases with electronic cards in April 2020) have a larger % of temporary workers (6/8)
👉Occupations more amenable to remote work are dominated by permanent contracts. Thus, more-at-risk jobs are performed by temporary workers, easier to dismiss. (7/8)
👉Analysis combines event studies and (triple) dif-in-dif, using municipal level data of registrations in public unemployment offices in Portugal (IEFP).
👉(main) 🚨Policy implication🚨: Beware of public policies that accentuate worker asymmetries in a dual labour market
(8/8)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
We run an RCT where:
👉Young voters are given positive or negative info about the central government performance (different policy areas).
👉Information based on articles from mainstream Portuguese media.
👉Treatment provided right before the 2017 local election (2/8)
Our goal is to assess if:
👉 Positive and negative info have different effects on government performance perception;
👉 If an updated general government performance spills over to voting behaviour on local elections;
👉 The impact is different for younger/undecided voters. (3/8)