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E. Finley-Richardson

@ed_fin

Feb 24

🇬🇧 Gibson's Weekly Tanker Market Report
24 February 2023.
“The Fog of War”
🧵

cc: $DHT $EURN $FRO $NMM $INSW $NAT $OET $SFL $TNP $ASC $HAFNI $STNG $TRMD $TNK $DNORD $PXS $DIS.MI

Read 7 tweets

E. Finley-Richardson

@ed_fin

Feb 24

$TNK is telling you what it will be doing with the cash. From the earnings call yesterday:
1.

3. There are some who are unwilling to be realistic about what he is saying, even though he laid it out:

➡️ "As we generate income, we have to be prudent about reserving some of our earnings to invest in renewing our fleet and renewing our business."

Read 7 tweets

E. Finley-Richardson

@ed_fin

Feb 24

$OET presentation excerpts

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E. Finley-Richardson

@ed_fin

Feb 22

1. Russia, quite simply, was not ready from an infrastructure perspective, for this seismic shift in the [oil] market. They're maxed out of their infrastructure going East. They've modestly increasing ESPO capacity, and you're hearing about some modest volumes of crude by rail,

2. but ultimately you have a situation where you have ships in the Baltic and Black Seas doing ship to ship transfers, and going on a very long, inefficient voyage East. Russia is losing pricing power with its remaining customers, even beyond bearing the higher cost of freight

3. and insurance, and needless to say, the sanctions the economic pressure might make it even harder now for Russia to build this capacity going East. So this is the trend; the market is going to have to get used to this.

Read 7 tweets

E. Finley-Richardson

@ed_fin

Feb 21

Maybe I'll live-tweet this, starting in 5 minutes: “HSBC Local Insights: Dry Bulk and Tanker Shipping Outlook: China reopening and Geopolitics”

One of my favorite analysts, Arrow's Head of Research Burak Cetinok will be sharing more of their superb graphics and charts.

Dry bulk started off the year very bad. We expect this to continue short term. But Chinese recovery should ramp up in Q2 and that's when we expect the dry bulk recovery to gather steam. Increased stabilization 2H and especially 2024.

There is a notable lack of consensus on the severity of the coming recession or economic downturn. The chart on the left (from Philadelphia Fed) shows that this is most anticipated recession in history.

But: Economists (including me!) are terrible at predicting things. 😂

Read 46 tweets

E. Finley-Richardson

@ed_fin

Feb 20

🇬🇧 Gibson Sale & Purchase Market Report
17 February 2023
🧵

Read 6 tweets

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