The timing of Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries is creating an interesting situation for oil tanker markets.

Let's connect some dots:🧵 Ukrainian drones have hit 12 Russian oil refineries so far. While this has not (yet) had an outsized effect on product exports, we are one successful attack away from crack spreads spiking and importers looking for alternative sources. [map as of 13 March]

CRUDE TANKER SUPPLY (updated)
ED'S DEEP DIVE 🧵

VLCC = Very Large Crude Carrier 200,000+ dwt

Suezmax 120,000-199,999 dwt

Aframax 78,000-119,999 dwt

Panamax 60,000-77,999 dwt

$DHT $FRO $ECO $INSW $NAT
$SFL $TNK $TNP $NMM $EURN ~27% of the trading crude tanker fleet is owned by Greek shipowners. The remained of the fleet is rather fragmented, with 10% owned by China.

$STNG presentation @ Pareto

VLCC porn thread 💦

Just in:
“Leicester (2017) 260
Brazil/USWC 
18-19 jul
ws80 Shell” Last night's list of Atlantic cargoes outstanding; some have been covered & reported, others still working.

🇳🇴 Cleaves initiates product tanker coverage, starting with $ASC! TP $23 “The Time is Now” 🔥 twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Let's take a closer look at this Cleaves report. Notice TCE assumptions for 2024-26, an expected debt reduction. $ASC

1.

India imported 2.1m b/d of crude from Russia in May, nearly half of its total crude imports in May

Russian crude deliveries to India were more than the combined imports from the next 6 largest suppliers, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Mexico, Kuwait and the US, for the first time 2.

Majority of the Russian crude shipments to India comprise of Urals, which continue to trade below the $60/bbl G7 price cap on a FOB basis

India imported ~ 200k b/d of ESPO in May, which could persist as Chinese demand weakens along with high crude inventories (Argus)

AG->Red Sea @ w75, on subs since yday
last done = w53.5 (2 June) $DHT AG->China @ w70 i.e. $61,000/day

How to ship Russian oil to Pakistan:
1. Russia to India
2. India to UAE
3. UAE to Pakistan

Does that sound efficient to you?

Do you think Russia is pleased about that?

Does that put upwards or downwards pressure on the price of oil? Just to update this, there are murmurs that the cargo actually traveled as follows:

Crude oil from Russia to Iran, Iran to Oman, Oman to India (where it was refined), then India to UAE, UAE to Pakistan.

“Frontline $FRO just did AG/Korea at ws60”

https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1668188377139511300

Love the smell of green arrows at lunchtime.

$FRO downgrade
via Jefferies twitter.com/i/web/status/1… $FRO

🇬🇧 Gibson's Weekly Tanker Market Report

5 May 2023.

“A Sign of the Times”

cc: $DHT $EURN $FRO $NMM $INSW $NAT $OET $SFL $TNP $ASC $HAFNI $STNG $TRMD $TNK $DNORD $PXS $DIS.MI $KCC.OL $SNI.OL

Tanker porn thread
Sunday edition
via 🇳🇴 Cleaves
(1/n)

$DHT $FRO $EURN $OET $INSW $TNK $STNG $TRMD $DNORD $ASC $DIS.MI $HAFNI $SFL 2.

Tanker related short notes:

1. Russian crude is being shipped to China via Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu port, which is linked to PetroChina’s 260k b/d Anning refinery in Yunnan via the Burma Road pipeline network

2 vessels carrying Russian crude are declaring Kyaukpyu port end April/May 2. Nigeria’s April crude loading program running 2 weeks late. May loading dates are being postponed by up to 7 days due to production issues

Receipts at Forcados terminal fell -25% m/m to 185k b/d in March

ExxonMobil units in Nigeria declared force majeure on oil loadings

Offshore drilling valuation porn
via 🇳🇴 Fearnley's
$BORR $ODL $SDRL $DO $VAL $RIG $NE Floater utilization.
Is high utilization good?
Asking for a friend.

AG–>China @ w75 now 🧐 Update: w71
(w75 was Friday)

Do Your Homework: $SHIP

“The CEO is buying shares!”

“He'll never do [embarrassingly bad thing] again, that was just once!”

“Great exposure to the Capesize market!” Reality: SEC filing just dropped. Mr. Tsantanis suddenly, magically, receives 4% of the company (~$4.15m).

And surrounds that grant with purchases of shares on the open market (10x less) to pretend to "have skin in the game".

Μην είσαι χαζή!

🌍 Global shipping cos, categorized
1/4

$MAERSK $DNORD $DSX $DHT $EGLE $EURN $EDRY $FRO $GLOG $GLNG $ASC $CPLP $INSW 2.

From Uncle Howie (1/n)
December 2022

VLCC rates weakening a little now, FYI.
(see the red arrows in the leftmost column)
$DHT $EURN $FRO $OET color, from Fearnley's:

“Great expectations” – not materializing. Logic dictated that a well-stocked cargo list and correspondingly balanced position lists would result in a rate hike this week. However, charters kept their powder dry, patiently waiting,

(1/3)

Norwegians are VERY bulled up 🤣
via 🇳🇴 Finansavisen (google translated)
h/t Thomas The article was written by Petter "Bull" Haugen (ABG Sundal Collier), who is notorious for always being the biggest bull in the room:

1. Thread

I'd like to highlight notable movements in product tanker rates yesterday.

The MR Atlantic basket was steady, at $37,931/day. MR Pacific basket was down 2%. LR2 route TC1 was up.

TC6 (MR Algeria to Europe) jumped a nice amount:

$ASC $HAFNI $STNG $TRMD $DNORD $INSW 2. Benchmark LR1 route TC5 (MEG-Japan), which I discussed in my last blog post, was up too:

Keep in mind that the Baltic Exchange bases its TCE calculations on non-eco, non-scrubber equipped tankers. So Eco scrubber probably ~$7,000/day more.