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Simon Ree

@simon_ree

Mar 2

@INArteCarloDoss

I'm not a "macro trader" (I leave that to experts like @INArteCarloDoss @PauloMacro, and others who are very good at it)

I've never held myself out as a macro trader/expert, but I DO study macro. So how do I trade, why do I study macro, and how do I use it?

First off, I'm a technical trader. I exploit technical setups that give me a probabilistic edge.

Price is always doing one of 3 things:
- reverting to the mean
- accelerating away from the mean
- consolidating

I seek specific circumstances across these conditions

When the circumstances I'm looking for are present, I know I have a high probability moment in time to enter a trade

Note I said probability, not certainty. There's a reason this job is called "trading" and not "guaranteed profits" ;)

Read 6 tweets

Simon Ree

@simon_ree

Feb 6

Things I could buy instead of a Bloomberg terminal subscription

1. One case of Luciano Sandrone Le Vigne Barolo, every month 😃

2. A brand new Pinarello Dogma F, every year! 😃

3. Two weeks a year in a luxury villa in Santorini! 😃

Read 4 tweets

Simon Ree

@simon_ree

Feb 5

If the dollar is set to rally from here, what does that mean for inflation? A short 🧵

Conventional wisdom holds that if the dollar rallies, US inflation will fall. A good narrative, as the US is a net importer, and imports become cheaper when the dollar strengthens

BUT...
1/8

...but note how in 2022 the dollar peaked right at the same time as core CPI peaked. Sometimes narratives don't work so well

2/8

The dollar rallied hard late last week from a potential key level #bigflip

3/8

Read 9 tweets

Simon Ree

@simon_ree

Jan 3

The vast majority of the statistics you read regarding the stock market are plagued by small sample fallacy and/or gambler’s fallacy

With that disclaimer out of the way, here’s the “January Barometer” explained

1/4

The performance of the S&P 500 in January has predicted the year’s course with 72.2% accuracy since 1950. “So goes January, so goes the year”

15/18 of pre-election years followed January’s lead

2/4

When $SPX records a gain in the first 5 days of January, this has preceded full-year gains 83% of the time (13/18 for pre-election years)

3/4

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Simon Ree

@simon_ree

Jan 2

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has only posted back-to-back negative years on 4 previous occasions

So that makes another down year in 2023 highly unlikely, right?

Well, maybe not (a short 🧵)

The first time since 1928 the S&P posted consecutive down years was 1929 to 1933

It happened again in 1939-41

Then again in 1973-74 and again in 2000-02

With the exception of 1939-41 (the outbreak of World War II), all back-to-back annual losses in the S&P have occurred during/after the Fed raising the FFR and during a recession

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