JayEnAar Profile picture
Mar 1 9 tweets 3 min read
Some apologists for Adani Group are praying-in-aid @AswathDamodaran - the Finance prof and acknowledged corporate valuation expert from NYU Stern B-School. He appears to reject @HindenburgRes allegation that the whole Adani financing model is a 'con' but read his blog
He sets out his understanding of a con.
"A con game to me has no substance at its core, and its only objective is to fool other people, and part them from their money." By that definition Adani Group is NOT a total fraud operation - of course NOT. There is tangible physical
Infrastructure on the ground that generates vast revenues. So where is the fraud?
1. Among #Hindenburg's 'serious contentions" Damodaran acknowledges "the Mauritius-based shell entities, with no real operating purpose, and their links to the Adani Group companies."
In the category of allegations based on circumstantial evidence put up by #Hindenburg Damodaran lists, "many of the stock price manipulation charges"
In the category of #Hindenburg's "Questionable claims", Damodaran lists charges "to do with earnings manipulation," but these are "questionable" because "if Adani is manipulating earnings, it is not doing a very good job, reporting low margins and returns."
So according to Prof Damodaran, Adani group is not a total con operation in the sense that #Nithyananda is, but it has a lot to answer for. But his killer conclusion is that #AdaniENT stock is, on the fundamentals, worth "₹ 945, well below ₹ 3,858 per share."
Even if the share price were to drop below that level, and disregarding anything Hindenburg may have said, Damodaran is "not tempted to buy shares in Adani companies"
To see why he takes that position (it is to do with the lack of transparency and conflicts of fiduciary duty inherent in family run conglomerates) read Prof aswath Damodaran's blog on the Adani Hindenburg question is here: aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2023/02/contro…
Today's stock prices in my virtual Adani Group Portfolio on Google Finance is all green Ive included Patanjali Foods just as a contrast Image

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More from @GorwayGlobal

Mar 3
#Hijab #HijabBan in educational institutions, the #Courts and #G20 What's the link?
A short thread.
@LiveLawIndia reported that the Supreme Court will look at the Hijab Ban case soon Image
When the Judges look at it again, I would submit that they should consider it solely on the basis of individual rights based on personal choice in the matter of dress and attire where the choice poses neither threat noor risk of harm to any third person.
newslaundry.com/2022/02/10/saf…
To bring religion into the question before the Court would be to conflate the matter beyond logic. It is not the Court's role in a secular democracy to decide matters of religion or religious practice - questions that are best left in the private domain for individuals to decide.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 2
So #G20 Foreign Ministers meeting ended without an agreed joint Communique.
There was a Chair's Summary and Outcome document (see link) but not a joint agreed unanimous statement. Indian diplomacy could not overcome entrenched positions.
g20.org/content/dam/gt…
Of the 24 paragraphs in the Summary and Outcome document, "Paragraphs 3 and 4 of this document, as taken from the G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration (15-16 November 2022), were agreed to by all member countries except Russia and China."
Para 3 states Image
Para 4 says: Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 24
#G20 Finance Track
India's Prime Minister told the #G20 Finance track meeting in Bengaluru, "“Trust in international financial institutions has eroded. This is partly because they have been slow to reform themselves,” ... /1
In what sounded like a policy prescription he said, "I hope that you will draw inspiration from the vibrancy of the Indian economy. Indian consumers and producers are optimistic and confident about the future.".. /2
"We hope that you will be able to transmit the same positive spirit to the global economy." India he said had "created a highly secure, highly trusted, and highly efficient public digital infrastructure. Our digital payments eco-system has been developed as a free public good" /3
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21
Let me do a proper thread that flows nicely
Re: Claims made by Mr Bagla, boss of Invest india at a Treasury Leadership Forum 2023 and shared by several people with Wow! and great!
I did a fact check. here goes. (link to his speech at the end)
1. Mr. Bagla is being disingenuous.
About GDP he says
1st Trn took 67 years
2nd Trn took 8
3rd Trn took 5 years.
So he must be starting at 1943.
I dont have data going that far back but we have this from World Bank
1960(GDP = 37 billion)
to
2021 (GDP 3 trillion)
Now here's the point. In 1960 Our population was 445 million. in 2021 it was about 1.4 billion. That is a 3.14 x increase. So the bulk of our GDP growth was due not to rising productivity but due to an expanding and growing labour force.
More people = higher total GDP. Duh!
Read 18 tweets
Feb 19
Sugata Ghosh writes nonsense. #Hindenburg is an open book. They are the "sell' side of the buy/sell coin that is the stockmarket. They did Indians a service by calling out the fraud in the Adani conglomerate, and profited from their insight.

m.timesofindia.com/india/the-mess…
Shortsellers get a bad press. But if you take a dispassionate view they are no different from the early investors who oorrectly spot the next big thing like Amazon or Intel or Google.
Read my thread
Sorry I linked the wrong thread. Here, in this twitter thread I explain why shortsellers actually do us a service. They step in to correct the 'irrational exuberance' of those who think buying a stock has to be a 1-way bet.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 14
BBC , India and the tax survey. How the world is viewing it all.
This morning on #ValentinesDay Income tax officers in India carried out a raid (sorry, Survey) on the offices of @BBCIndia.
The BBC of course reported it as just another story, and made the obvious link between this latest run in with the Indian Govt and their niow (in) famous documentary "India - the Modi Question".
They stated that the BBC was "fully co-operating" with [the] authorities, and hoped "to have this situation resolved as soon as possible," But they also took the obvious opportunity to explain the background.
Read 17 tweets

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