Scoop: A long-awaited report by the US intel community concludes ‘Havana Syndrome’ was not caused by an energy weapon or foreign adversary, shattering a widespread theory that a secret device debilitated scores of spies & diplomats. By @shaneharris & me washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
The report caps a years-long effort by the intelligence community to explain why US personnel experienced what they described as strange and painful acoustic sensations
Many of the afflicted personnel say they were the victims of a deliberate attack — possibly at the hands of Russia — a claim that the report contradicts in nearly every respect, officials said.
7 intel agencies participated in the review of roughly 1k cases. 5 agencies found it was “very unlikely” that a foreign adversary was responsible for the symptoms, either as the result of a directed energy weapon or as the byproduct of something else like electronic surveillance
1 agency abstained in its conclusion regarding a foreign actor. But when asked, no agency dissented from the conclusion that a foreign actor did not cause the symptoms, an official said.
Officials said they found no pattern or common set of conditions that could link individual cases. They also found no forensic information or geolocation data that would suggest an adversary had used a form of directed energy such as radio waves or ultrasonic beams.
There was no intelligence that foreign leaders had any knowledge of or had authorized an attack on U.S. personnel that could explain the symptoms, an official said.
In some cases, there was no “direct line of sight” to affected personnel working at U.S. facilities, further casting doubt on the possibility that a hypothetical energy weapon could have been the culprit, one of the officials said.
Despite the new conclusions, Secretary of State Blinken remains of the view that something happened to those employees who have reported significant ailments, and he is committed to making sure they are cared for, per source. Blinken has long doubted the mass hysteria theory
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SCOOP: Senior Israeli officials tell U.S. diplomats Iranian protesters “will get slaughtered” if they take to the streets, though Israel is still angling for a popular uprising, per a State Department cable from Embassy Jerusalem 🧵
The cable relayed an Israeli assessment that Iran’s regime is “not cracking” and is willing to “fight to the end” despite the supreme leader's assassination. “The people will get slaughtered” because the IRGC “has the upper hand."
Despite the grim forecast, Israeli officials said they hoped for a popular revolt and urged the US to prepare to support protesters if that happens
NEW: A classified report by the National Intelligence Council, representing the collective wisdom of America's 18 intelligence agencies, found that even a large-scale assault on Iran would be unlikely to oust its entrenched military and clerical establishment 🧵
The report outlined succession scenarios resulting from either a short or extended U.S. military campaign. In both cases, it concluded the clerical and military establishment would respond to Khamenei's killing by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power...
The report says the prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country is “unlikely,” raising doubts about Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing
SCOOP: A suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia in what would amount to a significant symbolic victory for the Islamic Republic as it lashes out at U.S. targets and personnel across the Middle East, sources tell @nakashimae and me
The U.S. and Saudi governments confirmed that two drones hit the U.S. Embassy complex in Riyadh on Monday but did not disclose that America’s spy hub was hit in the attack.
An internal State Department alert obtained by The Post said the attack “collapsed” part of the embassy’s roof and “contaminated” the inside with smoke. The notice said the embassy sustained “structural damage” and personnel “continue to shelter in place.”
NEW: Joint Chiefs Chair Dan Caine expressed concerns to Trump at the WH last Tues that any major operation against Iran will face challenges because the US munitions stockpile has been significantly depleted by US's ongoing defense of Israel & support for Ukraine.
Separately, in Pentagon meetings this month, Caine also has raised concerns about the scale of any Iran campaign, its inherent complexity and the possibility of U.S. casualties. The general has said that any operation would be made all the more difficult by a lack of allied support for a U.S. attack on Iran
Caine’s views are seen as highly credible by the administration due to the successful execution of two other major operations he’s overseen: the assault on Iran’s nuclear sites last summer, and the U.S. raid to capture Nicolás Maduro in January
Extremely rare leak of a phone call transcript between Putin's senior foreign policy-adviser and Steve Witkoff via Bloomberg. Witkoff advises Putin's aid on how to pitch Trump on backing a Gaza-style peace plan for Ukraine
The purpose of the Steve Witkoff effort seems to be to get Trump to provide Witkoff maximum room to negotiate. As if ... Trump won't give that to him unless Putin tees it up and references the promise of Witkoff's work
Also notable that Bloomberg reviewed a second call involving Putin aide Ushakov, this time instead of speaking to Witkoff, Ushakov talks to Putin adviser Kirill Dmitriev. Interestingly, they are also concerned about the peace plan being viewed as the Russian position
SCOOP: A classified US report has found that Israeli military units committed “many hundreds” of potential violations human rights violations in Gaza that will take “multiple years” to review
-The findings mark the first time a US government report has acknowledged the scale of Israeli actions in Gaza that fall under the purview of Leahy Laws, which bar funding to units credibly accused of such abuses
-U.S. officials said the watchdog findings raised doubts about the prospects for accountability for Israel’s actions given the large backlog of incidents and the nature of the review process, which is deferential to the Israel Defense Forces
The State Department's office of the inspector general declined to comment for this article but has acknowledged the report’s existence on its website. “This report contains information that is Classified and is not available for public viewing,” the webpage says.
High profile incidents in Gaza pending a determination are numerous, including the killing of seven @WCKitchen workers by Israel in April 2024 and the killing of more than 100 Palestinians and wounding of 760 others gathered around aid trucks near Gaza City in February 2024