I just confirmed that one of the data points JD Vance used yesterday to underscore how much Israel relies on the US was a reference to the large number of interceptors the US used to defend Israel from Iranian missiles as spelled out in our scoop last month 🧵 “Two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars,” Vance said. Indeed, the U.S. used half of its entire global inventory of THAAD interceptors to defend Israel…

SCOOP: The U.S. has depleted much of its inventory of advanced missile-defense interceptors after expending far more high-end munitions defending Israel than Israeli forces used themselves, per DOD assessments of Operation Epic Fury 🧵 The US fired more than 200 THAAD interceptors in defense of Israel — roughly half of the Pentagon’s total inventory — along with more than 100 SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors. By contrast, Israel fired fewer than 100 of its Arrow and around 90 David Sling interceptors

SCOOP: A confidential new U.S. intelligence analysis details how China is exploiting the war in Iran to maximize its advantage over the United States across a range of fields, including military, economic and diplomatic 🧵 The assessment was produced this week for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and has raised alarm within the Pentagon about the geopolitical costs of Washington’s standoff with Tehran as Trump enters high-stakes talks with Xi Jinping...

SCOOP: A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship, a finding that contradicts those hailing an imminent collapse U.S. intel also indicates that Iran retains about 75% of its pre-war inventories of mobile launchers & about 70% of its pre-war stockpiles of missiles, per a U.S. official. The regime has also been able to recover underground storage facilities & repair damaged missiles

New: Pete Hegseth's triumphant portrayal of the conflict in Iran has alarmed U.S. officials who are concerned the statistics he often promotes are misinforming both the public and the president 🧵 The downing of the F-15E and A-10 fighter jets drew attention to Hegseth's earlier remarks boasting about “complete control of Iranian skies” and “uncontested airspace" but it's not just his claims about air dominance that are drawing scrutiny

NEW: The high-risk plan to seize Iran’s uranium in a commando raid that would require building a runway in Iran and dropping in excavation equipment amid incoming fire, came at Trump’s request, signaling his interest in the complex operation “This would be one of, if not the largest, most complicated special operations in history,” said Mick Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense and retired CIA and Marine officer. “It’s a major risk to the force.”

SCOOP: Senior Israeli officials tell U.S. diplomats Iranian protesters “will get slaughtered” if they take to the streets, though Israel is still angling for a popular uprising, per a State Department cable from Embassy Jerusalem 🧵 The cable relayed an Israeli assessment that Iran’s regime is “not cracking” and is willing to “fight to the end” despite the supreme leader's assassination. “The people will get slaughtered” because the IRGC “has the upper hand."

NEW: A classified report by the National Intelligence Council, representing the collective wisdom of America's 18 intelligence agencies, found that even a large-scale assault on Iran would be unlikely to oust its entrenched military and clerical establishment 🧵 The report outlined succession scenarios resulting from either a short or extended U.S. military campaign. In both cases, it concluded the clerical and military establishment would respond to Khamenei's killing by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power...

SCOOP: A suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia in what would amount to a significant symbolic victory for the Islamic Republic as it lashes out at U.S. targets and personnel across the Middle East, sources tell @nakashimae and me The U.S. and Saudi governments confirmed that two drones hit the U.S. Embassy complex in Riyadh on Monday but did not disclose that America’s spy hub was hit in the attack.

NEW: Joint Chiefs Chair Dan Caine expressed concerns to Trump at the WH last Tues that any major operation against Iran will face challenges because the US munitions stockpile has been significantly depleted by US's ongoing defense of Israel & support for Ukraine. Separately, in Pentagon meetings this month, Caine also has raised concerns about the scale of any Iran campaign, its inherent complexity and the possibility of U.S. casualties. The general has said that any operation would be made all the more difficult by a lack of allied support for a U.S. attack on Iran

Extremely rare leak of a phone call transcript between Putin's senior foreign policy-adviser and Steve Witkoff via Bloomberg. Witkoff advises Putin's aid on how to pitch Trump on backing a Gaza-style peace plan for Ukraine

https://twitter.com/business/status/1993407614370140494

The purpose of the Steve Witkoff effort seems to be to get Trump to provide Witkoff maximum room to negotiate. As if ... Trump won't give that to him unless Putin tees it up and references the promise of Witkoff's work

SCOOP: A classified US report has found that Israeli military units committed “many hundreds” of potential violations human rights violations in Gaza that will take “multiple years” to review

-The findings mark the first time a US government report has acknowledged the scale of Israeli actions in Gaza that fall under the purview of Leahy Laws, which bar funding to units credibly accused of such abuses

-U.S. officials said the watchdog findings raised doubts about the prospects for accountability for Israel’s actions given the large backlog of incidents and the nature of the review process, which is deferential to the Israel Defense Forces The State Department's office of the inspector general declined to comment for this article but has acknowledged the report’s existence on its website. “This report contains information that is Classified and is not available for public viewing,” the webpage says.

NEW: State Department fires top press officer for Israeli-Palestinian affairs after internal disputes over Israel policy, including whether to express condolences about journalists killed by Israel in Gaza and publicly oppose forced displacement of Palestinians, per documents 🧵 Last week, there was an internal debate about releasing lines to the news media saying, “We do not support forced displacement of Palestinians in Gaza.” It was prompted by questions about Israel-S. Sudan talks on transferring Palestinians. Leadership sided against doing so

State Department employees who have not yet received layoff notices today created posters for their less fortunate colleagues Some departing State Department officials urged those who are staying to "RESIST" the current leadership

SCOOP: The United States obtained intercepted communication between senior Iranian officials discussing this month’s military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and remarking that the attack was less devastating than they had expected, per four soures The communication, intended to be private, included Iranian government officials speculating as to why the strikes directed by Trump were not as destructive and extensive as they anticipated, per sources

NEW: The National Intelligence Council determined in a secret assessment early this month that Venezuela is not directing an invasion of the United States by the prison gang Tren de Aragua, a judgment that contradicts Trump’s public statements The determination is the U.S. government’s most comprehensive assessment to date undercutting Trump’s rationale for deporting suspected gang members without due process under the Alien Enemies Act

Scoop: The Trump administration reversed its decision to terminate a U.S. initiative that documents alleged Russian war crimes, including the mass abuction of Ukrainian children to Russia. It's a rare about-face following pressure from U.S. lawmakers and Christian evangelicals The decision, per congressional aides, gives the Conflict Observatory authorization and funding for six additional weeks to complete the transfer of its repository to the European Union’s law enforcement agency EUROPOL

🚨The Trump administration is considering ending all ongoing shipments of military aid to Ukraine in response to Zelensky’s remarks in the Oval Office on Friday and his perceived intransigence in the peace process, per senior administration official The decision, if taken, would apply to billions of dollars of radars, vehicles, ammunition and missiles awaiting shipment to Ukraine through the presidential drawdown authority, said the official.

New: The United States will vote no on the Ukrainian resolution at the UN General Assembly, says a State Department official. U.S. still in discussions with the UK and French on how they will vote as Macron and Starmer visit DC State Dept official: "We intend to veto any amendments added to the resolution and we have expressed that to partners … the intent is to keep the resolution noise-free, thin and to the basics of what the president wants us to do"

NEW: Scores of senior career diplomats are resigning from the State Dept effective at noon on Monday after receiving instructions to do so from Trump’s aides.
The forced departures, the prerogative of an incoming admin, indicate a desire to quickly break with the Biden era Those told to tender resignations include decorated veterans of the Foreign Service, including Under secretary John Bass and Assistant Secretary Geoff Pyatt.

Scoop: The Biden administration has decided to maintain the terrorist designation on Syria’s new Islamist rulers for the remainder of Biden’s tenure, leaving a critical decision about HTS and its leader to the incoming Trump administration, per officials The terrorist designation for HTS is a key obstacle to Syria’s long-term economic viability, but U.S. officials said the Islamist militants must demonstrate they’ve made a clean break with jihadist groups, in particular al-Qaeda, before the label can be lifted.