1) Guys, where are the good old days when the market used to puke into the close? It is not the 0DTE as there were 0DTEs before
I cannot seem to remember exactly when was the last one but i don't remember seeing one for months. Similar with rallies but I can recall a couple
2) Full disclosure :
Recongnizing there was a seller today and a lot of stops beneath the lows I got some 393-392 $SPY put spreads for 12c around 2pm
Seemed quite cheap for an index with a catalyst sitting at a 0.4% loss for the day and a heavy trend to the lows.
3) Max profit of c. 9x was a 0.65% away, I found that tempting.
After the failed attempt to take out the stops at the lows I exited the position at 3 pm for 10c. 2c (without comissions) loss was totally worth it, would take the trade again if I had the chance.
Today I woke up to the surprise of hitting 3000 @SubstackInc subscribers 🥳. I know it's not much and there are plenty of more successful writers out there but this is a small victory I never thought achievable back in Aug'22 when we launched.
Few lessons I learnt along the way:
Many traders/investors use Substack to source trading ideas from. This new idea distribution channel is breaking the previously high barrier to entry of private wall street research. There are very clever authors out there putting their everything to produce excellent content.
I am personally a reader of several Substacks and private newsletters just for this purpose alone. To get access to the authors (traders) and their thinking. I lost count of the number of profitable ideas I had 'stolen' from private research that I buy (Substack included) ...
Have you guys considered pair trading? Because I love it.
We did a few write-ups on how we do that in the FI world and I thought it might be appropriate to shed some more light on them
First, let's start with why we like to structure trades with ETF pairs 👇
Pair trading has some unanimous advantages:
↕️ Market neutral strategy
❌ Lack of idiosyncratic risks.
💡Ability to express an idea/theme
⚙️ Clear trade management
🪜 Scalability
🌊 Liquidity and borrow
Now, onto some real world examples 👇
1/ One missed opportunity ❌
Hate it or love it, facts are that energy (XLE) was the place to be last year and significantly outperformed on a total return basis its closely related peers. Its performance was somewhat challenged only by the stocks within oil services (XES)
Let's go back to the previous times gaps ups / downs were bought / faded with relation to inflation (= you are invited to have a look at my memory bias)
The chart and subsequent observations are below, the takeaway is up to you but I got my short expo decreased
Proud to announce that lately I have been doing VERY little in terms of buying and selling. Cuz if I had, I would have been thrown by that market left and right.
Hopefully, tomorrow we are finally gonna have some resolution to the choppiness. 🔪
1. $XHB - jaw-dropping performance after $PHM earnings. I don't think c. 9%+ is typical ER for this one.. A bit more euphoria, cancelation of priced cuts and homebuilders will be short again
2. $XLI, XLB - economy bid; transportation good $FDX, $UPS