Heard on the Trading Floor Profile picture
Been watching the markets go up and down for 16 years. Mostly options & credit. Running a trading floor. Weekly market reviews at https://t.co/FcwIR8d50P
Dec 26, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
I've been a trader for 16+ years and managed a trading floor for 10+ years.

Here are 4 crucial steps to take IF you want to significantly increase your chances to succeed as a trader: 1/ Start early:

Starting early gives you the opportunity to dedicate yourself to trading. The younger you are the less expectations on you to make money right away. After college you are expected to earn.

Needing to make money AT ANY time is the biggest performance killer.
Dec 23, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read
Hawkish comments by ECB, BoJ and Fed surprised many investors who expected an upcoming pivot rather than more tightening.

But they underestimate the significance of China reopening after three years of lockdown.

It will have a massive impact. Here's my view👇 Chinese households are full of cash right now. 'Work & stay at home' lifestyle for such a long time impacted their savings in a big way. Now they are free to spend it
Nov 26, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read
Want to become a better trader?

I bet you do.

Are you ready to do the work?

Are you ready to do the work consistently without finding reasons to skip it?

Very few do this important exercise called journaling. Can't blame them, its boring.

My template below 👇 How you get the most value out of your journal.

- You put down your thoughts daily and forget about them. Not much value there except for putting them down on paper.
- You gain value by tracking what problems and mistakes you had and how you tackled them in the past.
Nov 25, 2022 6 tweets 1 min read
Big shift from active towards passive investing is materializing in the past years.

А few reasons why investors run away from portfolio managers 👇

1/ Image Achieving consistently successful active management has historically proven more difficult within select asset classes, such as among the stocks of large U.S. companies. Active equity managers find it hard to beat their benchmarks

2/
Nov 25, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
In markets, there is always something worth mentioning.

Even on slow days like today.

👇 Under the radar📡:

1. Relative strength : $KRE, $XLV, $XLU, $JETS
#relativestrength

2. Relative weakness: $QQQ, $AAPL, $FXI, $CL_F, $NG_F, $ATVI
#relativeweakness
Nov 23, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Your portfolio might be in danger, if you don't consider the low probability but highly impactful events👇

Ignoring or underestimating the significance of a price shocks could result in a catastrophic loss—if not now, then sometime in the future.

1/ Image Black swan events (or price shocks) are large changes in price caused by unpredictable and significant events. While most traders don't think about them due to their low probability, they are the most common cause of catastrophic loss.

2/
Nov 23, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
Hope everyone feels loved and grateful the following days.

Before we all get the rest we deserve,

Here is what happened today 👇 Under the radar📡:

1. Relative strength : $TLT, $TSLA, $IGV, $ARKK, $JETS, $XLU
#relativestrength

2. Relative weakness: $CL_F, $KRE, $IWM
#relativeweakness
Nov 23, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read
HEDGING

How should you do it IF you want to lower your hedging costs and improve the process in general.

Biggest question to ask yourself:

Cash US Treasuries and ETFs OR Futures?

Read my thoughts below 👇👇👇 Benefits of Futures

When you short futures you avoid paying the following fees:

1. Borrow fee for holding a short position
2. Daily interest (In the case of ETFs, you may pay a dividend if holding through ex-div date)
3. Slippage, it exists even in US Treasuries (USTs) and ETFs
Nov 22, 2022 6 tweets 1 min read
Surviving bear markets requires you to manage both volatility and your emotions.

Although we try to approach trading from a logical perspective, our emotions can get in the way of sound decisions.

Why is it so difficult to avoid them? 👇

1/
Emotions can diverge from rational assessment

Bear markets are a breeding ground for emotions-based investing. The feeling of fear and a heightened sense of risk will be amplified by the behaviour of other people. Traders tend to act in herds.

2/
Nov 22, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
Slow and steady wins the race is not a phrase coined to explain the market but definitely fits well with what has been going on the last couple of days.

In case you have been busy procrastinating and in need of a summary,

this is what happened today👇 Under the radar📡:

1. Relative strength : $XME, $XLE, $XRT, $XLB
#relativestrength

2. Relative weakness: $JETS, $ARKK, $TSLA, $AMZN, $ITA, $DIS
#relativeweakness
Nov 21, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Do you know the meaning of a 'zombie' company?

As shown by the chart below, the amount of zombie companies in the Russell is at its highest level in history. Much higher than what we saw during the internet bubble.

Here's why it matters 👇

1/ "Zombie" company is defined as one that cannot pay the interest on its debt from operating revenues. The term was applied to Japanese firms supported by Japanese banks during the period known as the Lost Decade

2/
Nov 21, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
A typical day of a trader:

Soon after the open - gotta short $XLE, gravitational pull finally. Crap, entry is gone, missed this one.

1h later, Saudi news out - quick, gotta get long $CL_F. Entry? Does not matter, load it up.

Flexability is everything.

Today 👇 Under the radar📡:

1. Relative strength : $DIS, $XLP, $XLU, $XME, $NUE
#relativestrength

2. Relative weakness: $XLE, $XOP, $XES, $HG_F, $EL, $COTY, $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOG, $V, $MA
#relativeweakness
Nov 11, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
I was listening to @farnamstreet's episode with @Justinsua today. I loved the part around the 70th minute where he talked about the difference between losing and getting beaten. This resonated with me as I find it very applicable to the trading world. Why? 👇 First what it means to be losing:

- You haven't put your all in training
- You haven't put work in improving your skill
- You haven't optimized for food and nutrition

If it is something that you could have done but didn't, it is on you and you are losing.
Nov 9, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read
Almost all trading strategies are built around a simple concept and could be put in one of those 4 categories:

1. Mean reversion
2. Momentum
3. Volatility based
4. Event driven

While tons of words could be written about each of those, I will provide an example of #4

🧵 Yesterday It became clear that the recent selling in $TSLA is due Elon Musk unloading shares.

Those type of insider dealings could be seen on EDGAR, as each company is due to file them under the tab "Ownership disclosures".

sec.gov/edgar/browse/?…

👉This is our EVENT. 👈
Nov 9, 2022 9 tweets 2 min read
Over the past 16 years I have had numerous break through moments in my trading career.

Each moment came after overcoming a tough period.

Read about the 4 lessons that had a profound growth effect on my career as a trader. Early career lessons:

1. I didn't realize quickly enough that trading edges come and go. I thought I will make money with my favorite strategy forever but I was wrong. BIG MISTAKE!!!
Nov 8, 2022 6 tweets 1 min read
The psychology behind stock market bubbles has always been the same and the process is happening again. The anatomy of Bubbles can be divided in 5 stages. Here is what you need to look for during each one of them 👇 1. Displacement ✨
Investors get enamored by a new paradigm, such as an innovative new technology. Could be crypto, space, AI, etc
Nov 8, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read
Hedging is a key skill that every trader needs to learn.

The ins and out of hedging are not widely talked about on #fintwit.

Here are a few insights into what products I like to use for hedging my fixed-income portfolio 👇 1. First I need to ask myself what type of bonds I need to hedge? EUR denominated or USD denominated?

In this case I will talk about USD debt:

- Investment grade
- High Yield
- Emerging Markets
- AT1/Hybrid/Perpetuals

I use different products for each type of bonds.
Nov 6, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
I am a firm believer of using futures contracts to hedge my corporate bond exposure. Here is a list of the most popular 🇪🇺 futures contracts appropriate for hedging EUR denominated corporate bond exposure: 🇩🇪 bond futures

FGBS (Schatz) - 2 year German bond

FGBM (Bobl) - 5 year German bond

FGBL (Bund) - 10 year German bond

FBGX (Buxl) - 30 year German bond

FEHY - Euro High Yield

FECX - Euro Corporate SRI

FGGI - Euro Green bond
Nov 5, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read
In last week’s credit and equity reviews we were BULLISH for the week. We laid out our arguments supporting that view.

$SPY ($SPX) finished the week down, Bonds finished the week down.

But what happened to our positions? First let me start with the bullish arguments for our fixed income picks:

1. Change in tone from FED members - How wrong was I about that!
2. Lack of fear in iTraxx Crossover, CDX High Yield and OAS spreads
3. MOVE index refusing to make new highs and closing lower for the week
Nov 2, 2022 9 tweets 2 min read
I have been trading for 16 years . I've traded through the GFC , FLASH CRASH, EURO CRISIS, KNIGHT CAPITAL BUST, VOLMAGEDDON and COVID.

Here are the top 3 mistakes I wish I avoided earlier in my journey: 1/ NOT learning about how to trade options earlier in my career. I was able to increase my position sizing 5x as soon as I realized how to control my risk better and estimate my position size via options. It is like trading on steroids.