ICICIdirect Profile picture
Mar 2 12 tweets 5 min read
Our Gladiator stock pick for the month is:
✨Bharat Electronics (#BEL)✨

A Navratna defence public sector undertaking that's empowering India’s armed forces.

CMP: 97
Short Term target: 108
Support: 87

We have shared out techno-fundamental rationale in thread below:

1/n
2/n
#BEL Technical Outlook:
🔸Taking support at 52 Week EMA, which is expected to act as a good support

🔸Weekly stochastic has a positive crossover and in a rising trajectory

🔸Expect it to resume uptrend in coming weeks and head towards 110 which is 80% retracement of..
3/n
.. the entire decline of Sep '22 - Jan'23 (114-87).

About:
BEL is a leading Aerospace & Defense electronics company that makes advance electronic products.

Multi-product, multi-technology range:
🔸Radar
🔸Missile systems
🔸Electronic warfare & avionics
🔸Anti-submarine
4/n

BEL’s focus is on increasing non-defense share to ~20-25% over next 2 to 3 years.

Q3 results:
Company’s Q3FY23 revenue increased 11.8% YoY (4.7% QoQ) to Rs 4,153 crore at an operating margin of 21% (top quartile in peers).

driven by better execution.

Financials:
5/n
Q3 results:

EBITDA margin stood at 20.7%, contracting by 160 bps YoY mainly on account of higher raw material cost.

PAT increased 2.6% YoY to Rs 599 crore.

Order backlog at Dec 22 was at Rs 50,116 crore (2.9x TTM revenues), giving it good growth visibility.
6/n
#BEL

Despite order inflow being Rs. 3,736 cr in 9MFY23, management has given its FY23 order inflow guidance of Rs. 20,000 cr, indicating a strong pipeline:

🔸 Expected orders of Rs 3,300 crores from Himshakti program

🔸 Atulya medium-power radar of Rs. 2,000-3,000 crores
7/n
#BEL
Orders worth Rs 10,000 crore for radars and SONAR expected from naval shipyards.

Other large contracts of QRSAM (Quick Range Surface to Air Missile) and Akash missile systems is expected to be awarded in FY24
8/n

#BEL Our view:

BEL’s strategy to diversify into non-defence areas, focus on increasing exports and services share would aid long term growth and help de-risk its business.

We expect revenue, EBITDA & PAT to grow at 18.5%, 20.1% and 18.2% CAGR respectively, in FY22-24E
9/n

Overall, expected double digit revenue, order inflow growth, sustained margins and strong order book are expected to ensure a better performance.
10/n
Recent Updates:

A. Bharat Electronics (#BEL) opened a new software development centre in Visakhapatnam on Feb 24th.

Will offer “Software as a Service” for various applications in the domains of both Defence and non-Defence.
11/n
March 1, 2023: BEL to supply RF Modules for Rafale Radar.

BEL signed a Frame Supply Agreement with Thales Reliance Defense Systems (TRDS), for the manufacture and supply of
- TR Modules
- Radar LRUs (Line Replaceable Units) and
- Micro Modules.
12/n

Hope you found this useful.

Follow us @ICICI_Direct and hit the bell icon🔔to stay updated on such insights.

Disclaimer: bit.ly/fulldisclaimer

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More from @ICICI_Direct

Mar 3
Update: Axis Bank has completed acquisition of Citibank’s consumer business.

The Bank acquires:
🔸Rs 273 bn in assets
🔸Rs 400 bn of liabilities

for cash consideration of Rs 116.03 bn

Axis mgmt called it one the most complex acquisitions in India’s private banking history
🧵1/
2/
Implied Equity value is Rs 149 bn, indicating a acquired valuation of 17.7x P/E based on FY22 earnings.

Deal appears favorable as it aligns with Axis' premiumization strategy and gives access to Citi’s

- Huge retail deposit base
- Affluent and profitable consumer franchise Image
3/
Some takeaways from Axis Bank conference call:

🔸ROE for Citi business comes at 21.7% and hence this business would be RoE accretive.

🔸Axis Bank had ROE of ~13% in FY22 and annualized ROE of 19.8% based on Q3FY23 results.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 3
Momentum pick: Tata Power

Target - 224
Stoploss - 198
CMP - 207

Rationale:
Tata Power which has been undergoing a base formation over past two months has given a breakout above key trendline resistance today.

#icicidirect #technical #Tatapower Image
2/ ..indicating acceleration of upward momentum. We expect short term target of 224 which is 80% retracement of its December decline.

Among oscillators, Daily 14 day RSI has given a positive cross over and resolved above its own trendline resistance supporting bullish stance
3/ Power sector stocks have been in the limelight since the end of February and many have seen bullish momentum reversal on price charts.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 3
FIIs net short positions in Index futures is near decade highs. Are we set for a short covering rally?

A short note.
🧵 Image
2/
After recent sell-off in Feb series, FIIs are net short on 1.3 lakh contracts. Such quantum of short positions was last seen in June 2022.

Historically, we have seen whenever net short contract reaches 1.3 lakh mark, market witnesses a short covering rally from lower levels.
3/
FIIs bearish positions through Options is near multiyear high.

The long Put OI seen on Feb 20th was the highest seen since 2016. In last 1 year, there are 3 instances when FIIs index long Put reached over 4 lakh mark.

Generally this marks a short covering rally. Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 1
Ricoh India's revenue rose over 6 fold from ₹257 Cr in 2010 to ₹1,638 Cr in 2015📈

Share price surged 30x from ₹30 to ₹1,000 in the same period📈

But a fraud was detected🔻 and share got delisted

However, checking CFO/EBITDA ratio could've saved you

A thread🧵👇
[1] What is CFO/EBITDA Ratio?

CFO is Cash Flow from Operations

The limitation of EBITDA is that it has both cash & non-cash profits which might include profits due to aggressive revenue recognition policies

This ratio depicts %age of EBITDA that gets converted into cash
[2] What does it signify?

🔶 Measures what %age of profits is being generated into cash

🔶 A poor ratio might mean that company is unable to realize cash from debtors

🔶 Poor ratio might also be indicative of longer than usual credit period for debtors
Read 12 tweets
Feb 27
NSE is increasing the trading time window for derivatives segment

This will help Indian markets overlap with the international markets

Let’s quickly understand how:
🔶What does this mean?
🔶Which securities are these for?
🔶Why are they making the change?

A thread🧵👇
[1] What securities are these for?

This increase in timings is for Interest Rate Derivatives

The new trading hours would be 9AM to 5PM🕔

But this change is not for other derivatives

Keep on reading to understand if increased timings are in the offing for other segments👇
[2] Current trading hours?

Trading hours mean the time in which the market will allow an investor to buy and sell Securities💹

🔶The current trading hours are 9:15AM to 3:30PM
🔶There is also a pre-opening session from 9AM to 9:15AM
Read 14 tweets
Feb 24
Auditors of EKI Energy gave a Qualified opinion🚩, highlighting overstatement of revenue & profits by 14% and 34% respectively

Share fell by 48% 📈in just 4 days🤯

Let's learn:
🔶What is a qualified opinion?
🔶How to read an Auditor's report?
🔶Its importance

A Thread 🧵👇
[1] What is Audit Opinion

Simply, Audit opinion is the conclusion derived by auditor based on
🔶Audit procedures and
🔶Their judgement,

whether Book of Accounts (BoA) are prepared
🔶Complying with relevant laws and
🔶Showing fair view of the business
[2] Types of Audit Opinion

A. Unmodified opinion
B. Modified opinion🚩

Further, Modified Opinion can be
🔶Qualified Opinion
🔶Adverse Opinion
🔶Disclaimer of Opinion

Also, there can be some important information in following paras of Audit report:

🔶EOM
🔶OM
🔶KAM

Contd👇
Read 16 tweets

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