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Heard on the Trading Floor Profile picture
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Mar 2 β€’ 7 tweets β€’ 3 min read
Let's go back to the previous times gaps ups / downs were bought / faded with relation to inflation (= you are invited to have a look at my memory bias)

The chart and subsequent observations are below, the takeaway is up to you but I got my short expo decreased
Under the radarπŸ“‘:

1. Relative strength: $XLP, $XLU, $XLV, $XME, fertilzers
#relativestrength
2. Relative weakness: $XLY, $SMH, $KRE
#relativeweaknes
Relative strength notes 🟒:

1. $XLP, $XLU, $XLV - congrats to the knife catchers

2. $XME - steel bigly up $CLF, $X, $AA, $NUE; big miners $RIO and $BHP doing well too

3. $MOS, $NTR nicely looking charts; when $CF?
Relative weakness notes πŸ”΄:

1. $XLY - basically $TSLA and $AMZN down and weak

2. $SMH - weak part is related to $TSLA's cost cutting news. If into it, check @Citrini7 's feed today. $STM $ON $WOLF

3. $KRE is the worst subsector today. Not able to find any news on it
@Citrini7 Other observations:

1. $SPY - two good lines for today - 'shorting the hole' & 'never short a dull market'

2. DXY & rates booming

3. $GLD doing well considering 2)

4. $IWM cooling off against $SPY
@Citrini7 What did I miss?

--------

hotf.substack.com
whoops, chart double posted. one is with typos. πŸ˜…

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More from @HeardFloor

Heard on the Trading Floor Profile picture
Mar 4
Today I woke up to the surprise of hitting 3000 @SubstackInc subscribers πŸ₯³. I know it's not much and there are plenty of more successful writers out there but this is a small victory I never thought achievable back in Aug'22 when we launched.

Few lessons I learnt along the way: Image
Many traders/investors use Substack to source trading ideas from. This new idea distribution channel is breaking the previously high barrier to entry of private wall street research. There are very clever authors out there putting their everything to produce excellent content.
I am personally a reader of several Substacks and private newsletters just for this purpose alone. To get access to the authors (traders) and their thinking. I lost count of the number of profitable ideas I had 'stolen' from private research that I buy (Substack included) ...
Read 16 tweets
Heard on the Trading Floor Profile picture
Mar 3
Before I sign off I wanted to show you a chart I stumbled upon in today's am/FX by @donnelly_brent (you miss a lot if you do not follow/subscribe)

In this market more than ever, one has to be open minded.

Daily observations below after which go read the rest of his piece πŸ‘‡ Image
@donnelly_brent Under the radarπŸ“‘:

1. Relative strength: megas, $XHB, $XME
#relativestrength
2. Relative weakness: $XLP, $SMH, $HG_F
#relativeweaknes
@donnelly_brent Relative strength notes 🟒:

1. $XHB - loved the long-end rates move

2. $XME - new high close for the year

3. megas finally up from oversold levels - $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOG, $META
Read 6 tweets
Heard on the Trading Floor Profile picture
Mar 3
Have you guys considered pair trading? Because I love it.

We did a few write-ups on how we do that in the FI world and I thought it might be appropriate to shed some more light on them

First, let's start with why we like to structure trades with ETF pairs πŸ‘‡
Pair trading has some unanimous advantages:

↕️ Market neutral strategy
❌ Lack of idiosyncratic risks.
πŸ’‘Ability to express an idea/theme
βš™οΈ Clear trade management
πŸͺœ Scalability
🌊 Liquidity and borrow

Now, onto some real world examples πŸ‘‡
1/ One missed opportunity ❌

Hate it or love it, facts are that energy (XLE) was the place to be last year and significantly outperformed on a total return basis its closely related peers. Its performance was somewhat challenged only by the stocks within oil services (XES)
Read 11 tweets
Heard on the Trading Floor Profile picture
Mar 1
1) Guys, where are the good old days when the market used to puke into the close? It is not the 0DTE as there were 0DTEs before

I cannot seem to remember exactly when was the last one but i don't remember seeing one for months. Similar with rallies but I can recall a couple
2) Full disclosure :

Recongnizing there was a seller today and a lot of stops beneath the lows I got some 393-392 $SPY put spreads for 12c around 2pm

Seemed quite cheap for an index with a catalyst sitting at a 0.4% loss for the day and a heavy trend to the lows.
3) Max profit of c. 9x was a 0.65% away, I found that tempting.

After the failed attempt to take out the stops at the lows I exited the position at 3 pm for 10c. 2c (without comissions) loss was totally worth it, would take the trade again if I had the chance.

Observations πŸ‘‡
Read 8 tweets
Heard on the Trading Floor Profile picture
Jan 31
Proud to announce that lately I have been doing VERY little in terms of buying and selling. Cuz if I had, I would have been thrown by that market left and right.

Hopefully, tomorrow we are finally gonna have some resolution to the choppiness. πŸ”ͺ

Tickers πŸ‘‡
Under the radarπŸ“‘:

1. Relative strength: $XHB, $KRE, $XLI, $XLB
#relativestrength
2. Relative weakness: $FXI, $SOXX
#relativeweaknes
Relative strength notes 🟒:

1. $XHB - jaw-dropping performance after $PHM earnings. I don't think c. 9%+ is typical ER for this one.. A bit more euphoria, cancelation of priced cuts and homebuilders will be short again

2. $XLI, XLB - economy bid; transportation good $FDX, $UPS
Read 6 tweets
Heard on the Trading Floor Profile picture
Jan 30
If you happen to follow us and read our weekly attempts to make sense out of markets,

you must know we expected some normalization after what happened on Friday.

When uber crap squuezes higher, it is usally a good sign that indices are due for a pause.

Today πŸ‘‡
Under the radarπŸ“‘:

1. Relative strength: $PFF, $PGX, $XLP
#relativestrength
2. Relative weakness: $SOXX, $XLV, $UNG & $USO, $XLE
#relativeweaknes
Relative strength notes 🟒:

1. $PFF, $PGX - those do not wanna give up..once the EOM/BOM inflows are over I think this will change

2. $XLP - only green thing today; chart is stuck, same as $XLU; do not touch territory for me
Read 6 tweets

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