First thing is this point, which is coincidence with the roadshow guidance from the December capital raise. FUNDED for production AND launch of Block 1. This means funded until first revenue, whereupon they should have break-even cash flow
The TAM is very large. Note the explicit mention of IOT, wearables, etc. "unmodified, standard, existing spectrum."
Review of the TAM. This is important for when real long only's show-up. They will want to have near endless runway for growth and opportunity
ASTS will not aid in the weaponization of drones by excluding China and Russia. Made in Texas, bitches
This capacity ramp is important. Remember, 6 satellites is a ton of revenue capacity. 72 satellites per year can likely increase over time. This is massively inflected revenue growth
Look at the upper right hand corner...5Gs, just like we saw on the Vodafone test device at #MWC23. This one is a mockup (most likely). The other one, ...?
Strategic investors have been repeat investors. Rakuten is super duper interested in dominating Japan. They are into this for $100MM.
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Now, would Google ever buy a mobile network infrastructure company? Well, they bought Motorola for $12.5BN in 2012. Unclear how smart that was, but it got them heavily into the game. Devices are one thing, but making those devices work everywhere are another
1/ Our next segment of #hardcoreDD for $ASTS focuses on the technology. Please DM me with any corrections, suggestions, or areas for me to modify in the next draft (modifying other sections with feedback received)
2/ Here is the simple overview with a schematic from an $ASTS patent filing
3/ Before getting lost in the weeds, let's zoom out with $ASTS and understand the basic problem Abel and team set out to solve
Sorry for the delay, but in response to popular demand, here is the B. Riley note on $ASTS
It's interesting that the analyst echoes the chorus from retail...maybe retail wasn't so unreasonable in their Philadelphia welcome of the Company's update
In what is literally what the halls of Twitter was saying, B. Riley states the obvious:
However, after the clamored for blood subside, we have a dawning realization that perhaps the Company has done something good?
1/ So you let the stock price write the news? Here is my summary of the $ASTS call and filings.
Since retail can be a bit in need of TLDR: Onlyfans creators are just going to have to wait before uploading at 5G. Downloading, though...blazing fast
2/ The 10K says simply that they are “continuing” the initial testing to achieve Cellular Broadband communications. This implies they have not yet achieved Cellular Broadband communications; “Cellular Broadband” refers to cellular communications at 4G LTE/5G speeds. 3G anyone?
3/ If testing is done in segments, then shaking out all the issues is an iterative issue. Importantly, we know the mechanics work. $ASTS was always a software company. It's just bent pipe in the sky, but brains on the ground. This was a good summary
1/ For new members of the $ASTS #Spacemob, I realize there can be a lot of noise on the internet. But, based on Friday's "news," it seems like we might have a seminal event shortly...albeit the first of what will be many accretive weddings with most of the world's MNOs
2/ While I had expected the next "event" to be a 'First Call' - which was pretty clearly disclosed in FCC filings (I'll keep the surprise so it maintains its full impact!), we might have an accelerated path to an unlock in the share price
3/ What do I mean by unlock? See below. Lots of false positives thus far - you'd have thought the stock would have meaningfully de-risked after launch, then unfurling, then capital raise. Like me, you'd have been wrong...until you're not
Here is the $ASTS update from B. Riley. Some important points
Remember that during the roadshow, management would have been giving presentations on a 1:1 basis and also setting the stage for revised messaging. B. Riley would be parroting that. So we read carefully. First tech risk: viewed as now basically gone
The next is new visibility in what the first commercial deployment is going to look like. This is the bridge from an R&D project to a business. This is what draws in the right holders