First thing is this point, which is coincidence with the roadshow guidance from the December capital raise. FUNDED for production AND launch of Block 1. This means funded until first revenue, whereupon they should have break-even cash flow
The TAM is very large. Note the explicit mention of IOT, wearables, etc. "unmodified, standard, existing spectrum."
Review of the TAM. This is important for when real long only's show-up. They will want to have near endless runway for growth and opportunity
ASTS will not aid in the weaponization of drones by excluding China and Russia. Made in Texas, bitches
This capacity ramp is important. Remember, 6 satellites is a ton of revenue capacity. 72 satellites per year can likely increase over time. This is massively inflected revenue growth
Look at the upper right hand corner...5Gs, just like we saw on the Vodafone test device at #MWC23. This one is a mockup (most likely). The other one, ...?
Strategic investors have been repeat investors. Rakuten is super duper interested in dominating Japan. They are into this for $100MM.
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Cardinals select a new supreme constellation, FCC filings give us a lot of potential upside surprises, and more on this week's Weekly
🚀Launch Update
The launch guidance tightens up from H2 2025 - 1H 2026.
The story is now for cash flow ramp expectations. The April–May 2025 FCC/NTIA volley shows AST SpaceMobile has cleared the two riskiest technical hurdles—orbital-debris compliance and 36 GHz passive-sensor protection—while quietly quadrupling its target constellation. In short, “36 GHz passive-sensor protection” refers to proving that AST’s Q/V-band feeder links will not wash out sensitive climate-monitoring instruments. The filings show AST achieves this with comfortable technical margin, eliminating a major regulatory uncertainty without sacrificing link budget or launch schedule.
FCC Chair Carr and Senator Ted Cruz drop by to congratulate Abel, Golden Dome kicks off, 5G Fund expectations rise, ISRO Launch soon, and much more on this week's Weekly...
🎌Rakuten Meeting
CEO Hiroshi Mikitani told a briefing Wednesday that Rakuten would provide voice, video, text and "other" services when it starts in the fourth quarter of 2026.
While Japan has dense mobile coverage in built-up areas, its difficult terrain and numerous offshore islands mean most carriers cover only about 70% of the total territory.
Seeing this filing means the operator (through the U.S. administration) has taken an early and essential regulatory step. The ITU framework sets the stage for official recognition of the satellite’s frequency usage and ensures no uncoordinated interference emerges
The world is over, but $ASTS continues to be in control of its destiny with nuanced details in regulatory filings showing that a large base of government revenue appears to be cooking. That, and more, on this week's Weekly...
👶Beta Boys
Beta is back. Wholesale liquidations of the market is always super fun, but it gives you a second chance. A great stock won't ever go back or rewind itself unless a) the market pukes or b) something bad happens.
Analogues:
October 1987 saw an enormous single‑day collapse (“Black Monday”). One month later, the market was roughly flat to slightly down (depending on the exact start/end points). November 2008 saw a vigorous +18 % rebound in the month after the local low, even though the global financial crisis continued well into 2009. March 2020 bottomed on March 23; the rebound one month later was approximately +25 %, reflecting the swift policy response and rapid market snapback.
Son, are we winning? Apparently, but last week it didn't feel like it. Ligado got signed, the future is bright but macro and FUD separate the men from the boys...that, and more on this week's Weekly...
The DA is signed. The implications of this are enormous. ASTS is ever-evolving and capitalizing on opportunities to maximize the value of their innovative technology