First thing is this point, which is coincidence with the roadshow guidance from the December capital raise. FUNDED for production AND launch of Block 1. This means funded until first revenue, whereupon they should have break-even cash flow
The TAM is very large. Note the explicit mention of IOT, wearables, etc. "unmodified, standard, existing spectrum."
Review of the TAM. This is important for when real long only's show-up. They will want to have near endless runway for growth and opportunity
ASTS will not aid in the weaponization of drones by excluding China and Russia. Made in Texas, bitches
This capacity ramp is important. Remember, 6 satellites is a ton of revenue capacity. 72 satellites per year can likely increase over time. This is massively inflected revenue growth
Look at the upper right hand corner...5Gs, just like we saw on the Vodafone test device at #MWC23. This one is a mockup (most likely). The other one, ...?
Strategic investors have been repeat investors. Rakuten is super duper interested in dominating Japan. They are into this for $100MM.
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1/ For new members of the $ASTS #Spacemob, I realize there can be a lot of noise on the internet. But, based on Friday's "news," it seems like we might have a seminal event shortly...albeit the first of what will be many accretive weddings with most of the world's MNOs
2/ While I had expected the next "event" to be a 'First Call' - which was pretty clearly disclosed in FCC filings (I'll keep the surprise so it maintains its full impact!), we might have an accelerated path to an unlock in the share price
3/ What do I mean by unlock? See below. Lots of false positives thus far - you'd have thought the stock would have meaningfully de-risked after launch, then unfurling, then capital raise. Like me, you'd have been wrong...until you're not
Here is the $ASTS update from B. Riley. Some important points
Remember that during the roadshow, management would have been giving presentations on a 1:1 basis and also setting the stage for revised messaging. B. Riley would be parroting that. So we read carefully. First tech risk: viewed as now basically gone
The next is new visibility in what the first commercial deployment is going to look like. This is the bridge from an R&D project to a business. This is what draws in the right holders
2nd attempt. Elon taught me, "don't tweet in a men's room stall," so now I'm going to write this properly while at my desk. So we were talking about $ASTS and its secondary that it announced...
I know the market is generally conditioned to go "OMG - they are raising equity."
Yeah, dipsh~t, the primary benefit of being publicly-traded is access to efficient capital. Trust me, I'm living the other side of this right now; private markets are SHUT.
So what happened? $ASTS announced a deal that prices tonight. 1-day marketed deal is important: there was demand. Demand is important. A lot of companies cannot get equity deals done at any price. $ASTS can, will, did. Again, access to capital right now is hard
SPECIAL REPORT AHEAD OF $ASTS’S EARNINGS CALL PART 1. Anxious? Worried? Let’s compile what we know so that everyone can be as best positioned as possible into the Nov 14 update call. This piece was a team effort of @spacanpanman@catse and @steve_larrison and myself
There is one question we are asking: did the bird spread its wings? Let’s put together the mosaic. The thing needs to be in orbit, controlled, unfurl, and then talk to a handset and relay that back to a terrestrial gateway. Let’s check off all these things
Want a TLDR? Just read this guy’s tweet. He has 135K followers and his hairstyle screams, “I’m an Astronomer at a center for Astrophysics.” And he is!
Sam, so you went bankrupt you miserable little sh~t.
Let's start...the docket. Right now, we have a "freefall bankruptcy." That's totally JV and it's because of a sudden fraud as well as a meth-head CEO who was banging his co-CEO. They didn't plan. "Splat"
All the subsidiaries filed. It's going to be a consolidated case that rolls up into one big process.
All we have now is 130 copies of this basic filing
"It always seems impossible until it is done." I wanted to share some experience as it relates to technical story stocks. I've been drawn to them in my career. Anyone who follows me knows that for the last 2 years, I've been really focused on $ASTS
These stocks fall to the event-driven crowd, at least at first. They are not yet mature enough or have large enough market caps for long-only's. These become the fodder for idea dinners and analysts relentlessly pitch each other their book until something happens.
However, in the lead-up, analysts do a lot of expert calls and DD. We saw @KerrisdaleCap do the same. Standard operating procedure. They generally use the same expert networks I use. Companies go recruit "experts" on my behalf and you pay $1k/hr to talk to them. It's useful