1/
Thank you for update
@jam_croissant
"Flows have been supportive."
Macro flows (🔥economic data, FED bobos like Crashkari) vs. supportive flows (👸🦥).
Volatility has been dampened by FED.
The FED doesn't want markets higher.
It’s not that they’re “selling VIX calls.”
Thank you for update
@jam_croissant
"Flows have been supportive."
Macro flows (🔥economic data, FED bobos like Crashkari) vs. supportive flows (👸🦥).
Volatility has been dampened by FED.
The FED doesn't want markets higher.
It’s not that they’re “selling VIX calls.”
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1631402780819877893
2/
FED is writing calls means:
The more the market runs, the stronger the economy is, the more we’ll get interest rate rises, and Quantitative Tightening (QT).
This is the opposite of the FED PUT aka Quantitative Easing (QE), where they PROVIDE LIQUIDITY.
FED is writing calls means:
The more the market runs, the stronger the economy is, the more we’ll get interest rate rises, and Quantitative Tightening (QT).
This is the opposite of the FED PUT aka Quantitative Easing (QE), where they PROVIDE LIQUIDITY.
3/
That's why 🥐said in a TDA pod a few months ago to be careful thinking that this next rally will be a secular one. He is of the opinion that FED will continue to reduce liquidity which will decrease equity $, but in a manner that is controlled and not volatile to🔪 inflation.
That's why 🥐said in a TDA pod a few months ago to be careful thinking that this next rally will be a secular one. He is of the opinion that FED will continue to reduce liquidity which will decrease equity $, but in a manner that is controlled and not volatile to🔪 inflation.
4/
I also remember in other pods/interviews, 🥐 mentioned that he believes the FED will eventually lose control over the long end of the curve, that they're still in a box.
Eventually, inflation will come roaring back and the FED will have to throw haymakers again.
I also remember in other pods/interviews, 🥐 mentioned that he believes the FED will eventually lose control over the long end of the curve, that they're still in a box.
Eventually, inflation will come roaring back and the FED will have to throw haymakers again.
5/
Will we see that happening?
I’ve said in a previous thread:
#Bigflip movement is essentially what Cem has been preaching for a couple YEARS now.
He’s been spot on thus far with most major macro moves AND market moves.
Nobody knows the future 100% but... We’ll see!
Will we see that happening?
I’ve said in a previous thread:
#Bigflip movement is essentially what Cem has been preaching for a couple YEARS now.
He’s been spot on thus far with most major macro moves AND market moves.
Nobody knows the future 100% but... We’ll see!
6/
As far as how to play this:
I remember in prior TDA pod, he mentions you want to play along with the FED.
IF market rallies higher (no directional call here), write calls with the fed.
Sell calls to own longer dated puts.
Somebody can link that interview for reference.
As far as how to play this:
I remember in prior TDA pod, he mentions you want to play along with the FED.
IF market rallies higher (no directional call here), write calls with the fed.
Sell calls to own longer dated puts.
Somebody can link that interview for reference.
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