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SenesLULZ Profile picture
SenesLULZ
@SenesLULZ
NONE of the SH*T posts are Financial Advice (NFA). Trade for the lulz. $AMD capitulator. Go INTC. Serious stuff on https://t.co/HI1oEuyf7m
2 subscribers
Mar 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Happy LORD'S DAY Brothers and sisters!
A mid-weekly LULZ here because this should guide you into April OPEX. Doubt I'll update this.

If you took fed's call, grats. Wise to take some profits as we're just @ the 1 std > 20d.
Anyway, diff take this time around.

See 🧵👇: 1/
 - til 03/31 vol well supplied
-EOQ/BOQ flows incoming
-04/03-04/07 JPM JunQ vol + holiday ivol (Good Friday 04/07 markets closed) = Mudville 🧲(slow grind higher).
-Less volume weighted time = faster decay of puts = more support.
-4/10-4/14 = 👸🦥power week.
Mar 25, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Happy LORD'S DAY brothers and sisters!
A short WEEKLY LULZ as I have other things to prioritize (trying to get promo at work, etc...).

Not much new things to reiterate here imho, but let's dive in:
See 🧵👇: 1/
 Yesterday, I said that come next week, this would a be a dip to buy into April.
There are loads of people calling for the JPM put collar strike at 3630 to be a magnet and because of how dealers are in "negative gamma," downside moves will lead us strongly toward there.
Mar 19, 2023 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
Happy LORD'S Day brothers and sisters!
Here for another Weekly LULZ.

As always, will attempt to compile thoughts from resources (mainly 🥐) to help navigate this week.

Will try to keep it short again w/o explaining EVERY context.

See 🧵👇: 1/
 Things have played out according to plan:


We have whipsawed from the 2 std < the 20d back up almost to the 20d and then right back down to the 1 std < 20d. It has been an incredibly difficult market to trade for most. No clear direction yet.
Mar 14, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Not going to give out positions since I'm a "permabull."
Event vol to unwind steepest currently for CPI.
After the unwind (depending on the number), be prepared for more whipsaw with huge OI QOPEX as well as further hedging into what ppl would argue to be the most important FOMC. Macro flows vs. structural flows.
Currently: the macro flows are winning by a long shot.

We're under the 2std < 20d (bot green) as well as under the MOAT (orange) AND the 200d (red) on SPX.
If structural flows don't get the momentum flipped soon, the macro downtrend will resume.
Mar 6, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Sorry for so many posts, but saw that I had 4k follows.
WOW! Y'all are following the wrong dude! Follow the ones I listed in previous posts.

Anyways... to celebrate, will be giving away another fed substack month.
Just comment on this🧵.

This week's fed post is a must read... I'll do a random video drawing at 9pm pst, 12am est.
So that'll be deadline. WIll be back.
Mar 4, 2023 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
HAPPY LORD'S DAY Brothers and sisters!
A couple weeks' worth of break from 🧵, seeing less trolls and 🤡like @1929Trader (who's been absolutely getting SMOKED since shorting 3500)
and I am refreshed for another of the "Weekly LULZ"

You asked (2 of you). I deliver.
See 🧵👇: Disclaimer:
Most of the thread will be analyzed from prior 🥐pods/tweets. This is just how I am critically thinking of his insights.
Even wit the whole 20d system, I was too naive in thinking it was a surefire system, so adjusted as you can see:

Mar 2, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/
 Thank you for update
@jam_croissant
"Flows have been supportive."
Macro flows (🔥economic data, FED bobos like Crashkari) vs. supportive flows (👸🦥).

Volatility has been dampened by FED.
The FED doesn't want markets higher.
It’s not that they’re “selling VIX calls.” 2/
 FED is writing calls means:

The more the market runs, the stronger the economy is, the more we’ll get interest rate rises, and Quantitative Tightening (QT).
This is the opposite of the FED PUT aka Quantitative Easing (QE), where they PROVIDE LIQUIDITY.
Feb 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/
 Changed view:
Normally, I'd short here if I STRICTLY adhered to this system, but given more learning/research... seems like indices declined ~5% from OPEX highs in 🪟 of non💪, and vol has not 🚀.
🪟still open, but if you were short ~4200, I'd take profits by Fri if no ⬇️momo. 2/
 I scaled in long, still waiting for PCE Fri (which could get ugly).
But important support seems to be at
-50 dma
-3950

I'd say if those are breached closed AND vol up, then I'd be scared. RN, I'm buying this dip hand over fist.
People overly bearish but..
⏲️is not a 🐻friend.
Feb 16, 2023 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
Synopsis 🧵of TDA interview today...
Note*: Nothing really new from what 🥐has talked about before.

1/
 We're in window of non-strength. (Not necessarily weakness). These predictable flows of Vanna and Charm (when they are strong, when they are weak) are IMMUTABLE. 2/
 The window (started yesterday 02/15/23) goes til about 02/28.

It's usually the Wed of OPEX til the week or week and a half AFTER OPEX because there are the (again) predictable flows of Vanna 👸and Charm 🦥returning at End of Month(EOM)/Beginning of Month (BOM).
Feb 14, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Hi brothers and sisters of the 🥐fam, before an update 🧵...
If you've made any money from my help, would you be so kind as to pay it forward by helping people in Turkey & Syria?
I'm liquidating a lot of my RH port now (taxes, but also for donations).

Initial thoughts from CPI: 1/
1dte calls (OR PUTS) was indeed NOT the play.
Volcrush.exe for the second straight CPI in a row.

This CPI was a "meh" as I thought it'd be.
This was not a good CPI by any metric...
But it wasn't the WORST case either.
Feb 11, 2023 • 29 tweets • 8 min read
Happy LORD's Day brothers and sisters!
"Giga 🐂 idiot" here w/ early gift bc tmr SUPER BOWL!

Next week surely is NOT as easy as every FinTwit furu wants you to believe.
So many differences in opinions/analyses...
Let's try to think about this critically 🥐style.

See below 🧵: 1/
 Recap:
Mostly everything 🥐talked about, has played out for the past couple months. More recently, we've squeezed shorts heavily into an area that once was thought unreachable (past the MOAT, 200d sma).

However, the FED was hellbent on preventing moar...
Feb 10, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Gm folks:
1/
 Getting a few trolls for me being a "giga bull"
but also some legitimate questions like below.
Again, I will reiterate that I am not in Zee Puts. I am not largely in positions.
Full positions:
-some long positions that were bought eod yesterday
-OTM put hedges 2/
 Did I miss Zee Puts?
-Mmm no. They're still offside unless you took them at the TOP (~4200). In which case, good job! Kudos to you guys! You're nimble~

Is it too late for Zee Puts?
-IMO, no. So I'm not fretting here.

Am I remaining bullish?
-Believe it or not. Yes.
Feb 9, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Omg. There are people DM'ing and asking about market outlook (two people 🤣). I'm going to clarify for the majority anyway.
To be very clear:

1/
 a. It is peak👸+🦥week, ramps up into Friday/Mon of OPEX week. This has not changed.
b. I am still NOT in Zee Puts 2/
 Zee Puts refers to Wifey's "market puts" that are long dated.
If you couldn't tell from previous posts, I think it's absolutely IDIOTIC to have been holding or doubling down on them (w/o hedging) b/c
a. price moving against you
b. we're in window of 💪

*Note: i respect Wifey.
Feb 8, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/
 There seems to be a lot of confusion in regard to this.
Carl Icahn is a very prominent trader, known for his lucrative gains in the business.

In the past couple years, he made some notable trades that supported markets. 2/
 An example of one such notable trade:



During the great bull run of 2020-2021, he SOLD a large amount of ITM puts on the tails. What this does is provide liquidity/🍌🍌🍌/convexity support for aforementioned tails. This is typically BULLISH.
Feb 6, 2023 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Hi brothers and sisters,
Happy LORD's day~
We heard some terrible news from the 🥐.
Please pray for him and his family.

Though I was not going to post THREADS for a bit,
figured I'd "do what I love" as 🥐said and supplement his teachings in his absence. Least I can do.

See 👇: 1/
 If you were to ask me where I would fundamentally stand when we had very poor mega tech earnings, MUCH hotter than expected NFP, ⬆️ USD, and other macro risks at hand - I would say MUCH lower than where we are.

When risks are this high but price is here tho:
Respect it!
Feb 1, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Alright brothers and sisters of the 🥐fam,
in case the earlier thread from Sunday wasn't clear enough... here's a mid-week update that should help you out.

Hint: you don't want to get caught short post-this week.
h/t @jam_croissant
I added personal commentary @ end.
See 🧵👇: 1/
 I had mentioned here the vol term structure data provided by @t1alpha .
Whilst the 🥐speaks of skew generally being in the 0th percentile, the hedging that is catered to these events coming up
(FOMC, jobless claims, NFP, earnings) are high.
Jan 29, 2023 • 24 tweets • 7 min read
Hi brothers and sisters,
Happy LORD’S DAY!

🧵for the upcoming week:
1/
 Recap last week-
Two of the S&P 500 giants reported < than stellar earnings/guidance (MSFT & TSLA). That could even be a vast understatement to some.

Fundamentally, it seemed the stocks would ⬇️. 2/
 But what ended up happening?
-For #MSFT stock price dropped Jan 25th AM, found a triple bottom (from Jan 11 and 19) ~ $230/share and rocketed upwards to close just shy of previous day's close.
-For #TSLA it just simply gapped up the next day & we all know about Friday.👀
Jan 26, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
1/
Hi guys,
Here's an alpha learning thread that is VERY PERTINENT to this current situation:
reddit.com/user/NoProblem…

As I have said, @NoProb_XXX is very prescient on mid-long term equity cycles (thus why I call him Oracle).
However, as a beginner, I made a CRUCIAL mistake. 2/
 If you read through the post, he called a very accurate "MAJOR BULL MARKET" to come soon. But I was very adamant on the other side - being short to a particular target c.3100 on the S&P.

Well, we never did get to 3100.
There was a double bottom 3230-3250 and exploded up.
Jan 23, 2023 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Fellow brothers and sisters,
Since the TDA interview from @jam_croissant when he mentioned "dip to buy into..."

What has transpired?
-retrace to the 20d (dip). ✅
-Bear killer rally. ✅

MY take🧵for the week ⬇️: 1/
 All 👀are on tech earnings coming up, FOMC meeting next week, the 200d sma, the Mother of All Trendlines (MOAT).
Today alone, we got a backtest of the 200d, thrust back up and we're currently > that MOAT.
As the 🥐said, these are important to 👀 b/c if we close > both...
Jan 20, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
IMPORTANT update!
1/
 I forgot to include in the thread yesterday that 02/01/23 FOMC meeting is not *ONLY* bullish.

-Yes, there is event vol attached to the meeting.
-HOWEVER, what the FED says (or does not say) is hugely important to the distribution of probabilistic outcomes. 2/
 I only mentioned here:
the positive outcomes.
If the FED comes out swinging with more hawkish rhetoric (esp if equities have run up largely), expect a downside response from equities AFTER the event vol resolution.
Jan 19, 2023 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Fellow 🥐
I will try to make @jam_croissant 's TDA interview ELI5 as possible. Please watch on your own though in case I miss anything. This is for those who don't have time to watch a 11 minute video (or are visual learners).
Will only include actionable ST analysis.
See 👇🧵: 1/
 We got the rally from week of Jan 10th--front run starting Jan 6th--on to Jan 18th Wednesday (VIXPIRY).

👸(Vanna) + 🦥(Charm) have lost their oomph starting yesterday and are all but packed w/ their bags ready for🏖️(vacation) fully after tomorrow, Jan 20th (MOPEX).