More from @squatsons

ayden

@squatsons

Mar 4

Some predictions for the next few months of fighting in the Donbass 🧵

Chasov Yar is an obvious place to start as the battle for Artyomovsk begins to winds down just to the east. I see the Russians following their usual MO of surround/cut supply/storm. The high ground to the north and securing a bridgehead over the canal is key to the encirclement.

With the bridgehead south of Chasov Yar developing the Toretsk conglomeration that sits in a low area could be susceptible to an attack from the rear it just depends on the tactical situation in the area.(I have studied this settlement the least but consider it a possibility)

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ayden

@squatsons

Feb 26

Prigozhin has just released a statement alleging that Leopard tanks are already in Chasiv Yar. The implications of this action may actually give us some insight into how the Ukrainian command is thinking and how critical the situation appears to be for them.

If leopards are in the country for less then a week (publicly) and already being sent to the front, the crews will be inadequately trained (unless mercenaries) and will be rather alone in the field considering the bulk of donated tanks are in transit or have not been sent yet.

To me this shows the extreme desperation that AFU command is in and how vitally important they see Bakhmut’s defense. This may also indicate that the planned offensive to Crimea is taking a back seat as equipment necessary for said offensive is being rushed to plug armor holes.

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ayden

@squatsons

Feb 24

1 year later

Russian economy stable after the full force of western sanctions on a “gas station economy”.

China, India, OPEC+, Turkey all closer allies to Russia then before the SMO started.

Russian military has successfully continued to attrit all of NATO through its proxy.

Everything is not perfect and smooth but it was supposed to go so much worse for Russia and it’s really not. No one planned for this to go a full 12 months but the US is now in a much worse position then it was in February, while Russia took a 2.1% GDP hit (less then Covid).

A full pivot to Eurasia is occurring and the period of a influential Europe is now coming to end. Pipelines are being built to china, trade alliance through Iran to India, Russian/Chinese spring in Africa is occurring, and the west is losing trust/allies faster then I can count.

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ayden

@squatsons

Feb 23

Machine translation

Evgeny Prigozhin statement

“Today at 6 am, they announced that the shipment of ammunition is starting. Most likely, the train started moving. So far, on paper, but, as we were told, the main papers have already been signed.

I would like to thank all those who helped us make this happen. You saved hundreds, maybe thousands of lives of guys who are defending their homeland, gave them the opportunity to live on. Their mothers and their children will not receive coffins with their bodies.

Many thanks to those who did it in various ways - to those ordinary citizens who did everything they could, and to those who were, including in high offices, exerted pressure and made decisions.

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