Leon Simons Profile picture
Mar 3, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The ☀️sun☀️ is getting very active.

Last year Earth received on average more solar radiation than it has for the past 20 years.
Next years will most likely top this, as we are moving into the positive phase of the solar cycle. On August 31, 2012 a long filament of solar material that had been hovering in the sun's atmosphere, the corona, erupted out into space at 4:36 p.m. EDT. The coronal mass ejection, or CME, traveled at over 900 miles per second. The CME did not travel directly toward Earth, but did connect with Earth's magnetic environment, or magnetosphere, causing aurora to appear on the night of Monday, September 3. Pictured here is a lighten blended version of the 304 and 171 angstrom wavelengths taken from the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Cropped
This Solar Cycle is much more active than predicted by @NWSSWPC , rapidly moving outside the Predicted Range, with 2.5 more years to the estimated solar maximum.

swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar…
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This could turn out to be a strong temporary climate forcing, adding ~0.2°C to warming from:
-Increasing greenhouse gasses
-Decreasing aerosols
-El Niño
-Reducing ice albedo
-Increased water vapor in both the troposphere (feedback) and stratosphere (Hunga Tonga volcano eruption).
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Next years will give some insight in the climate of the next decades.
Highest annual Global Average Solar Irradiance in 20 years.
This adds about 0.25 W/m² of incoming radiation compared to the years experiencing a solar minimum. Image

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More from @LeonSimons8

Jun 14
🌊🌡📈
Sea Surface Temperatures of these Northern Oceans were a record of >9 standard deviations above the 1951-1980 climatology in May.
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When using 1991-2020 climatology, the peak was in April and "only" 4 Standard Deviations:
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The Sea Surface Temperature dataset from @NOAA goes back further, so here we can use the 1901-2000 climatology (which some like to use as a preindustrial baseline): Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 4
🔥Decadal warming of 0.42°C!?🔥

There is a lot to going on here.
Please bear with me as I break it down below.Image
@CopernicusECMWF @ECMWF @OceanTerra @DrJamesEHansen @NOAA @NOAAClimate 🌍🌡️📈
First note the temperature of 2023 and 2024 (up to May) plotted in red.

These are the global monthly average surface air temperatures above 1850-1900 (from @ECMWF ERA5).

The past 12 months were on average +1.63 °C! Image
@CopernicusECMWF @ECMWF @OceanTerra @DrJamesEHansen @NOAA @NOAAClimate Also note the monthly temperatures from 2015-2016 in purple.

The same 12-month period was +1.29 °C above estimated 1850-1900 temperatures! Image
Read 9 tweets
May 29
📈
Like many leading climate scientists, most of my followers got this wrong!

Earlier this month I asked my followers whether outgoing infrared radiation to space has been increasing or decreasing.

Outgoing longwave (IR) from @NASA satellite observations is record high!

1/
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There is an increase in greenhouse gases, but also a decrease in aerosols.

Less sunlight is reflected to space and more is absorbed.

Part of that excessive heat leaves our planet as infrared radiation instead:

But there is a relative decrease in outgoing infrared!

Relative to how much sunlight is absorbed.

Read 5 tweets
Mar 29
Must read on the aerosol termination shock, darkening of our planet, and on the accelerating regional and global warming!

It's getting harder and harder to deny what @NASA and @NOAA observations are telling use.

Full mailing copied below:



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Absorbed Solar Radiation and Earth's Energy Imbalance are off the chart, leading to acceleration of regional and global warming!


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Sea Surface Temperatures are increasing most where sulphur emissions from shipping reduced most and where the increase in absorbed sunlight is most apparent.


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Read 5 tweets
Mar 19
People living in and around this area might want to know that the amount of Absorbed Solar Radiation in this area increased to +4.3 W/m² in 2023 since 2000-2009!

This is more than the greenhouse gas forcing from all greenhouse gases we've added to the atmosphere since 1750!Image
+4.3 W/m² for over 10% of the Earth's surface!

If people understood what this means, it would be front page news everywhere.

We all know this won't be covered anywhere.Image
These +4.3 W/m² over 54,340,000,000,000 m² added 7.4 ZJ of additional heat in the 12 months of 2023!: Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
☀️📈BREAKING @NASA CERES🌡️📈

Why was 2023 so extreme? The data is finally in!

The world absorbed a lot more sunlight, as less was reflected.

While greenhouse gases kept most of the additional heat in.

Add El Niño and all temperature records shattered!

More 👇🧵 Image
Let's start with the sun. It's a bit brighter, as it is starting to reach the peak of its 11-year cycle.

But that doesn't explain why our planet absorbed an additional 2.3 Watts per square meter over its 510 trillion m² surface, compared to the first decade of satellite data: Image
As global temperatures increased, the amount of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) increased.

But not as much as the Absorbed Solar Radiation (ASR) increased, leading to an increased rate of global heat uptake: Earth's Energy Imblance.Image
Read 8 tweets

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