Last year Earth received on average more solar radiation than it has for the past 20 years.
Next years will most likely top this, as we are moving into the positive phase of the solar cycle.
This Solar Cycle is much more active than predicted by @NWSSWPC , rapidly moving outside the Predicted Range, with 2.5 more years to the estimated solar maximum.
This could turn out to be a strong temporary climate forcing, adding ~0.2°C to warming from:
-Increasing greenhouse gasses
-Decreasing aerosols
-El Niño
-Reducing ice albedo
-Increased water vapor in both the troposphere (feedback) and stratosphere (Hunga Tonga volcano eruption).
Next years will give some insight in the climate of the next decades.
Highest annual Global Average Solar Irradiance in 20 years.
This adds about 0.25 W/m² of incoming radiation compared to the years experiencing a solar minimum.
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When using 1991-2020 climatology, the peak was in April and "only" 4 Standard Deviations:
The Sea Surface Temperature dataset from @NOAA goes back further, so here we can use the 1901-2000 climatology (which some like to use as a preindustrial baseline):
Absorbed Solar Radiation and Earth's Energy Imbalance are off the chart, leading to acceleration of regional and global warming!
Sea Surface Temperatures are increasing most where sulphur emissions from shipping reduced most and where the increase in absorbed sunlight is most apparent.
People living in and around this area might want to know that the amount of Absorbed Solar Radiation in this area increased to +4.3 W/m² in 2023 since 2000-2009!
This is more than the greenhouse gas forcing from all greenhouse gases we've added to the atmosphere since 1750!
+4.3 W/m² for over 10% of the Earth's surface!
If people understood what this means, it would be front page news everywhere.
We all know this won't be covered anywhere.
These +4.3 W/m² over 54,340,000,000,000 m² added 7.4 ZJ of additional heat in the 12 months of 2023!:
The world absorbed a lot more sunlight, as less was reflected.
While greenhouse gases kept most of the additional heat in.
Add El Niño and all temperature records shattered!
More 👇🧵
Let's start with the sun. It's a bit brighter, as it is starting to reach the peak of its 11-year cycle.
But that doesn't explain why our planet absorbed an additional 2.3 Watts per square meter over its 510 trillion m² surface, compared to the first decade of satellite data:
As global temperatures increased, the amount of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) increased.
But not as much as the Absorbed Solar Radiation (ASR) increased, leading to an increased rate of global heat uptake: Earth's Energy Imblance.