US ISM manufacturing minus China PMI manufacturing (relative)
Housing markets globally are cracking
ISM < 45 has historically coincided with negative payrolls
The Lowest Interest Rates in 5000 Years
21st vs 20th Century Stock Market Valuations
The trailing P/E ratio of the S&P 500 back to 1900
US government spending as % of GDP
Markets stop panicking when Central Banks start panicking
Investment themes for the 2010s vs 2020s
Trades for the 2010s vs the 2020s #regimes
For many, higher rates a good thing (especially in Europe)
Government bonds the ‘flow winner’ so far in 2023
Treasury funds on track for $170bn inflows in 2023
Equity funds on track for $107bn inflows in 2023
EAFE continues to lead in 2023

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More from @MikeZaccardi

Mar 3
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.5.
This P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (18.5) but above the 10-year average (17.2). Image
Significant earnings recession is the expectations. 3 straight quarters of negative EPS growth. (Starting with 4Q22). Image
Energy sector with the worst EPS growth in 2023 Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 3
BofA: Spending appears to have slowed since mid-Feb. The Feb mfg ISM was soft. We expect job growth to moderate to 230k in Feb
By historical standards, total card spending in Feb 2023 looks soft relative to Jan
"Data received since our update last Friday lowered our 1Q tracking estimate from 1.3% q/q saar to 0.9% q/q saar."
Read 8 tweets
Mar 2
January Commodity Inflation Trendspotter

Spot inflation significantly decelerated versus last month
Average NTM or futures inflation -0.7% y/y. Down 297bps versus last month
Long rice, short oats has been a winning pairs trade
Read 5 tweets
Mar 2
The labor differential (“jobs plentiful” – “jobs hard to get”) once again points to a tight labor market.
dailyshotbrief.com
The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index showed severe deterioration in the region’s business activity.
China: The official manufacturing PMI showed a massive factory activity surge in February.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28
The median new home price is now down on a year-over-year basis. @SoberLook charts Image
China: Mobility indicators have surged Image
(Evil) companies known for buying back their shares have been outperforming. Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 18
The January report on producer prices topped expectations in both the headline and core PPI. Upstream price pressures persist.

@soberlook charts
dailyshotbrief.com
Lithium prices have been rolling over.
After months of declines, new home prices were flat in January.
Read 5 tweets

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