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Patrick Ruffini Profile picture
@PatrickRuffini
Mar 3, 2023 • 8 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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🚨 NEW today is the @EchelonInsights #SplitTicketAtlas updated for 2022: Almost 100 maps showing unique voter coalitions by state, and answering who performed better where: Trump, or Republican gubernatorial and Senate candidates in 2022.

Download here: echeloninsights.com/split-ticket-a… Image
Governors' races are new to the most recent version of the #SplitTicketAtlas. A particularly telling slide: @BrianKempGA improved over Donald Trump virtually everywhere in GA, but not in places like Henry County, which have seen rapid demographic change in the last 2 years. Image
This is the @leezeldin vs. Donald Trump map. Image
And here's the @RonDeSantisFL map vs. Trump. Image
In Vermont, @PhilScott4VT had overperformances of as much as *101%* in margin over the Republican candidate on the ballot in 2022. Image
I initially thought this Idaho map had to be wrong, since it looks so much more random than other states. It wasn't: Just the effect of Ammon Bundy as a third-party candidate for Governor. Image
Nebraska is an interesting example of a state that seems split 50/50 regionally, but a lot of these orange Trump-first counties are very sparsely populated. Image
Lessons? Even if split ticket voting is on the decline, we saw in 2022 that it still matters. But when planning for a campaign you shouldn't assume over or underperformances will be spread out equally across the state.

Our data shows how they aren't: echeloninsights.com/split-ticket-a…

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More from @PatrickRuffini

Patrick Ruffini Profile picture
May 2
What is Trump's ceiling?

Why is Biden focusing more on his base than swing voters?

A polling experiment finds some answers.

At first blush, Biden appears to have a higher ceiling than Trump. 43% say there's ZERO chance they'd vote for him, 48% for Trump. Image
For months, we've been asking people to rate their likelihood of voting for Biden or Trump on a 0-10 scale. We then compare the answers to come up with an alternative to the traditional head-to-head ballot, assigning voters based on their probabilities.
This nuanced view of intensity shows why Biden had an upswing in the polls: voters totally committed to him (Biden 10, Trump 0), went from 22-23% of voters to 27-28% starting in March, matching Trump's hardcore group.

Before, there was probably doubt Biden would be the nominee. Image
Read 14 tweets
Patrick Ruffini Profile picture
Apr 3
Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996 by 8.5 points, the most resounding victory by a Democrat since LBJ.

I don’t think people realize what a stick in the eye his campaign was to liberal Democratic orthodoxy.

A 🧵and appreciation of Clinton’s 🐐 ‘96 re-election. Image
After losing the 1994 midterms, Clinton was in a political funk, written off for dead.

Then he hired Dick Morris, the party-hopping Republican who helped Clinton win his 1982 comeback bid in Arkansas.

Soon after, Clinton had his groove back. nytimes.com/1995/07/01/us/…
Image
One of Morris’s first moves was to launch an ad blitz in the summer of 1995 sixteen months before the election. The issue: crime.

Clinton seamlessly blended talk of gun control with support for more police, a both/and strategy that eludes Democrats today. Image
Read 25 tweets
Patrick Ruffini Profile picture
Jan 23
We're already starting with the takes about a high percentage of Republican primary voters signaling they won't support Trump in the general.

These numbers don't show what you think they show.

They are pre-Trump establishment relics, not new defections. 🧵
Haley is down to 20% while Trump has over 70%. It is what it is.

This is pretty undistilled hardcore Trump opponents and skeptics. Any defection in the general will come from this 20% but ultimately amounts to single digit percentages of Republicans.
But people who will vote in the Republican primaries != the Republican base in the general election.

In NH it includes a lot of independents who are crossing over to support Haley in the primary.

This shows why she's such a strong general election candidate...
Read 6 tweets
Patrick Ruffini Profile picture
Nov 14, 2023
🚨 New Party Reg Data for Newly Registered Voters

The Hispanic realignment continued across party registration states, with the GOP reaching new highs in the first quarter of 2023 most places.

Approaching 60% of new registrants in FL, near 50% in AZ.Image
The Realignment is slowly starting to reach Black voters.

There's been a surge in the GOP share among new registrants starting after 2020 in FL & NC, two states required to keep race on file.

In FL it's surged from 5% to 14%. In NC, 4% to 8%.

#PartyofthePeople Image
In other states, likely black voters are identified by living in high black population census tracts, which are nearly all Democratic, but the trend is positive.
Read 8 tweets
Patrick Ruffini Profile picture
Mar 8, 2023
This of course totally ignores decades of education polarization and the 2016 and 2020 shifts. Certainly, "working class" voters as a group don't all vote the same, because of splits between whites and nonwhites, but they're all moving the same direction--towards Republicans.
On the idea that not having a college degree isn't a good way to frame this debate - education is the thing that drives everything today.

In 1996, there was a 47 point gap in how the richest and poorest groups voted for president and almost no education gap among whites...
In 2020, there was just an 8 point gap between the richest and poorest voters and a 39 point education gap among whites.

And what about the education gap among nonwhites?
Read 6 tweets
Patrick Ruffini Profile picture
Mar 8, 2023
Voters age 18 to 29 voted 66-32 for Obama in 2008, a margin of 34 (!) points.

Voters age 30 to 44, overlapping almost exactly with that 2008 cohort, supported Democrats by 4 points in the midterms.

That’s a shift of 30 points right.
If you look at 2020, the same holds: Biden +6 or +12 among 30-44s. Catalist has +18. +12 seems like a sensible middle ground estimate. That’s still a crazy shift right from the 2008/10 baseline.
And the argument back is that something like either a 10-15 point lean so deep into people’s voting career is unprecedented. That’s true. But we’ve also never seen an over 55 vote lean this far right—and they’re a bigger share of the electorate than ever.
Read 9 tweets

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