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Patrick Ruffini Profile picture
Patrick Ruffini
@PatrickRuffini
Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, here for the Realignment, author of Party of the People — “the book that predicted the 2024 election.”
3 subscribers
Feb 13 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🧵 with a few takeaways here

Trump maintains above-water approval, 52-46

Favorability is +1 Elon has moved from +3 last month to -7 now.

Approval of his role is in the government is -11.
Nov 12, 2024 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
🧵 A few quick notes for posterity to close the loop on those interminable polling error debates from before the election that have now seemingly been memory-holed. From our final MI/PA/WI surveys... We were seeing much the same issues as @Nate_Cohn was with raw samples coming in much more pro-Dem across the board.

Without weighting on recall vote, MI & WI would have been Harris+ high single digits.
Nov 6, 2024 • 16 tweets • 1 min read
Highlights from AP VoteCast / Fox News Voter Analysis

Men Trump 54-44
Women Harris 53-45

Not a historic gender gap. 52-46 among 18-29 year olds (!)

Trump wins seniors by 2.
Jul 8, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In an age of extreme partisan polarization, you’ll never get one candidate up by double digits in a way that tells the other one it’s hopeless. It’s always “just a standard polling error away!” When average leads never get above 5 points it’s super-easy to gaslight people by pointing to one showing a 2 point race and then comparing it to this other one showing the same before the debate.
May 13, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Trump should skip doing some swing state rallies in order to attend every UFC event between now and November to remind young nonwhite men that there’s an election happening. Image Yard signs can help in local races. Image
May 2, 2024 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
What is Trump's ceiling?

Why is Biden focusing more on his base than swing voters?

A polling experiment finds some answers.

At first blush, Biden appears to have a higher ceiling than Trump. 43% say there's ZERO chance they'd vote for him, 48% for Trump. Image For months, we've been asking people to rate their likelihood of voting for Biden or Trump on a 0-10 scale. We then compare the answers to come up with an alternative to the traditional head-to-head ballot, assigning voters based on their probabilities.
Apr 6, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Turns out Joe Biden isn’t very good at industrial policy. TSMC construction in Arizona is being held up by labor and environmental disputes, and the red tape in the CHIPS Act, compared to a relatively speedy approval in Japan. economist.com/business/2024/…Image
Image Do you think the Substack policy bros realize that their side just isn’t very good at this?
Apr 3, 2024 • 25 tweets • 9 min read
Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996 by 8.5 points, the most resounding victory by a Democrat since LBJ.

I don’t think people realize what a stick in the eye his campaign was to liberal Democratic orthodoxy.

A 🧵and appreciation of Clinton’s 🐐 ‘96 re-election. Image After losing the 1994 midterms, Clinton was in a political funk, written off for dead.

Then he hired Dick Morris, the party-hopping Republican who helped Clinton win his 1982 comeback bid in Arkansas.

Soon after, Clinton had his groove back. nytimes.com/1995/07/01/us/…
Image
Jan 23, 2024 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
We're already starting with the takes about a high percentage of Republican primary voters signaling they won't support Trump in the general.

These numbers don't show what you think they show.

They are pre-Trump establishment relics, not new defections. 🧵 Haley is down to 20% while Trump has over 70%. It is what it is.

This is pretty undistilled hardcore Trump opponents and skeptics. Any defection in the general will come from this 20% but ultimately amounts to single digit percentages of Republicans.
Nov 14, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 New Party Reg Data for Newly Registered Voters

The Hispanic realignment continued across party registration states, with the GOP reaching new highs in the first quarter of 2023 most places.

Approaching 60% of new registrants in FL, near 50% in AZ.Image The Realignment is slowly starting to reach Black voters.

There's been a surge in the GOP share among new registrants starting after 2020 in FL & NC, two states required to keep race on file.

In FL it's surged from 5% to 14%. In NC, 4% to 8%.

#PartyofthePeople Image
Jul 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Woke capitalism was the result of a Twitter consensus where actually far-left opinions seemed mainstream. Then the old Twitter consensus collapsed, leaving the left with no way to police the discourse. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/… Seems to me that there are 4 discrete Twitter eras:

2007-2011: Era of Good Feelings — Existing offline communities migrate online. In this era conflict was kept at a minimum because the people you’d encounter on here were mostly people you knew in real life. People still posted what they had for breakfast.

2012-2015: Liberal Expansion — Coinciding with mass adoption, this was the era where hashtag activism, identity politics, and disturbingly, cancellation mobs, got going.

2016-2021: Civil War — MAGA rises to check the liberal hegemony of the earlier era. There’s no room for the center and the clubbiness of the earlier eras is gone as most of the people are new on the scene and digitally native, without grounding in offline community.

2021-present: Schism — Years of civil war lead to something of a ceasefire with the creation of small autonomous zones for each warring faction, first on the right (Gab, Parler, Truth, etc.) then on the left (Mastodon, Bluesky, Threads?)
Mar 8, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This of course totally ignores decades of education polarization and the 2016 and 2020 shifts. Certainly, "working class" voters as a group don't all vote the same, because of splits between whites and nonwhites, but they're all moving the same direction--towards Republicans. On the idea that not having a college degree isn't a good way to frame this debate - education is the thing that drives everything today.

In 1996, there was a 47 point gap in how the richest and poorest groups voted for president and almost no education gap among whites...
Mar 8, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Voters age 18 to 29 voted 66-32 for Obama in 2008, a margin of 34 (!) points.

Voters age 30 to 44, overlapping almost exactly with that 2008 cohort, supported Democrats by 4 points in the midterms.

That’s a shift of 30 points right. If you look at 2020, the same holds: Biden +6 or +12 among 30-44s. Catalist has +18. +12 seems like a sensible middle ground estimate. That’s still a crazy shift right from the 2008/10 baseline.
Mar 7, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
A Twitter Polling "Memo" on our latest conjoint analysis: What is "candidate quality"? What does it take to convince primary voters that someone isn't a quality candidate and shouldn't get nominated?

A 🧵... First, what's a conjoint? It's where a respondent chooses between two fantasy candidates with randomly-generated lists of attributes. We then look at how many times an attribute was present in the winning choice to find out what voters *really* prefer.
Mar 3, 2023 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
🚨 NEW today is the @EchelonInsights #SplitTicketAtlas updated for 2022: Almost 100 maps showing unique voter coalitions by state, and answering who performed better where: Trump, or Republican gubernatorial and Senate candidates in 2022.

Download here: echeloninsights.com/split-ticket-a… Image Governors' races are new to the most recent version of the #SplitTicketAtlas. A particularly telling slide: @BrianKempGA improved over Donald Trump virtually everywhere in GA, but not in places like Henry County, which have seen rapid demographic change in the last 2 years. Image
Feb 16, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🚨 NEW POLL: Voters say that most major financial goals are out of reach for the typical American family. This includes a plurality who say owning a good home in a good neighborhood with good schools. Considered most out of reach is raising a child on one parent's income. The sharpest divides by income are in the ability to afford a family vacation or save for retirement.
Feb 10, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
The reports of teen mental health problems starting around 2010 when they all got smartphones I believe can be traced to the same phenomenon. Basically everyone started going nuts because of the Internet around 2011-12
Feb 9, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Joe Biden on Social Security in 2024 is just like Bill Clinton on Medicare in 1996 except without the willingness to do anything to break with the college educated white liberals driving the party left on culture war issues. Remember what Bill Clinton did to make sure he wasn’t seen as just another liberal Democrat:

- Triangulation
- Signing DOMA
- Sister Souljah moment
- Bringing on Dick Morris
- School uniforms, V-chips, death penalty for drug kingpins, etc.

Biden is doing nothing like this.