Thread by @PatrickRuffini

🚨 NEW today is the @EchelonInsights #SplitTicketAtlas updated for 2022: Almost 100 maps showing unique voter coalitions by state, and answering who performed better where: Trump, or Republican gubernatorial and Senate candidates in 2022.

Download here: echeloninsights.com/split-ticket-a…

Governors' races are new to the most recent version of the #SplitTicketAtlas. A particularly telling slide: @BrianKempGA improved over Donald Trump virtually everywhere in GA, but not in places like Henry County, which have seen rapid demographic change in the last 2 years.

This is the @leezeldin vs. Donald Trump map.

And here's the @RonDeSantisFL map vs. Trump.

In Vermont, @PhilScott4VT had overperformances of as much as *101%* in margin over the Republican candidate on the ballot in 2022.

I initially thought this Idaho map had to be wrong, since it looks so much more random than other states. It wasn't: Just the effect of Ammon Bundy as a third-party candidate for Governor.

Nebraska is an interesting example of a state that seems split 50/50 regionally, but a lot of these orange Trump-first counties are very sparsely populated.

Lessons? Even if split ticket voting is on the decline, we saw in 2022 that it still matters. But when planning for a campaign you shouldn't assume over or underperformances will be spread out equally across the state.

Our data shows how they aren't: echeloninsights.com/split-ticket-a…