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Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
@DionisCenusa
Mar 4, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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#Critical_Technology: The concentration of R&D, academic and technological potential is something to watch closely: 1) China is a leader in many areas; 2) The US and India are closest to China in this race; 3) the EU is falling behind; 4) Russia is not close.⤵️
Analysis by @ASPI_org shows the following trends: 1) The risk of monopoly in defense, robotics and transportation is medium to low, with main competition between China and the US. Drones and small satellites are the areas where that Italy and Germany are in the top 5;⤵️
2) China and the US are dominant in artificial intelligence and computing. India follows in third place, with South Korea and the United Kingdom completing the top 5 in almost all cases;⤵️
3) The situation is more fragmented in advanced materials and manufacturing, with India successfully competing for second place with the US, while China leads the way. South Korea, Germany and the UK are also present in the top 5.⤵️
4) Quantum technology is the only sector where Germany (the EU) has a chance to be in strong positions in the top five, competing with the United Kingdom for third place. China and the United States lead the pack. This makes monopoly unlikely in this sector.⤵️
All in all, China is the leading country in 37 of 44 sectors and the US in 7, respectively. However, monopoly risk persists in only 7 sectors, with China leading the pack. Some of these sectors refer to manufacturing and energy. In general, if the trends do not change,⤵️
the Global South has the potential to become future providers of advanced technology for the Global North. Also, there are different poles of attraction, not just two. The balance of power between democracies and autocracies will be determined by India's trajectory.⤵️
More read in the report of @ASPI_org 👇

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Feb 26
#Ukraine: Russian goals following a peace deal are more ambitious than many in the West had anticipated: 1) Russia does not merely aim to retain the territories it currently occupies. Its interests lie in influencing policy-making within post-war Ukraine; 2) The war as a means of radical political transformation in Ukraine has failed, which is why Russia seeks to utilise the peace talks to establish favourable conditions on the ground; ⤵️
3) Russia's objective is to create a Ukrainian reality that favours the Russian language and a Russian-friendly religious and cultural environment, sustained not only by local guarantees but also by international commitments. Russia is demanding the restoration and consolidation of post-2014 policies regarding language, religion, and culture in Ukraine.⤵️
In short, Russia's intentions should be understood by those who try to comfort its intentions through peace. Accepting Russian conditions would mean undermining Ukrainian sovereignty.
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Jan 8
#FrozenConflict: The geopolitical competition around the solution of the Transnistria conflict may get a breath of fresh air now that the breakaway region is facing one of the most serious crises since the collapse of the USSR. A 🧵:⤵️
1) The EU suggests that Tiraspol coordinate with Chisinau to find a way out of the current energy crisis. If this happens before the war in Ukraine ends, Moldova’s reintegration could gain further ground through Chisinau’s involvement in managing the energy crisis in Transnistria, only with EU support;⤵️
2) Russia is not willing to change the status quo, which is one of the reasons why it did not propose to supply gas to the Moldova/Transnistria region via Turkish Stream. Still, Moscow might change the approach after seeing Trump’s peace plans in Ukraine translated into practice after the inauguration on Jan 20. However, Trump seems to be more occupied with redrawing the balance of power in the Arctic (through control over Canada and Greenland) while Russia is busy in/with Ukraine;⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Dec 28, 2024
#Russia_Moldova: Gazprom officially announces that it is stopping gas deliveries to Moldova: 1) The gas was used in the Transnistria region, mainly to generate electricity that was sold to the rest of Moldova. This was convenient for Chisinau, although indirect energy dependence on Russia continued;⤵️
2) Gazprom claims that Moldovagaz (implicitly referring to the Moldovan government) failed to pay $700 million in debts. According to the 2021 contract negotiated by the Moldovan government, non-payment of debts could lead to the interruption of gas supplies;⤵️
3) It is interesting, but Gazprom does not say a word about the interruption of gas transit through Ukraine by kyiv. That could be done deliberately to fuel future narratives about the need to hold negotiations with Moscow to resume gas supplies;⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Dec 22, 2024
#Romania: New findings from Romania’s ANAF, the body that oversees financial integrity, show that the pro-EU National Liberal Party (PNL) financed the TikTok campaign that ended up amplifying public visibility of Georgescu in the presidential election. Some important findings: ⤵️
1) The Russian factor seems to be exploited by local political elites against far-right parties; 2) The PNL-funded TikTok awareness campaign “Echilibru și Vrticalitate” conducted by Kensington Communication, which endorsed Georgescu to then officially support Elena Lasconi in the second round;⤵️
3) The Romanian special services and the Constitutional Court used the TikTok argument to cancel the entire election, leading to the restriction of citizens’ constitutional rights on security grounds; 4) Western capitals in the EU and NATO bought the argument that the elections had to be cancelled due to Russian interference, which seems to be more of an electoral technology of the PNL (pro-EU party) to reduce the chances of AUR leader Simion making it to the second round by promoting Georgescu.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Dec 13, 2024
#Moldova: It is official: a state of emergency has been declared for 60 days in the field of energy security. The country is facing the second energy crisis since 2021. A🧵: ⤵️
1) The current crisis is more problematic because it affects not only the gas sector, but also power generation; 2) Russian gas is at the heart of the new crisis; 3) The Moldovan government overlooked the creation of the crisis and so did the EU; 4) Another inflationary shock is expected, which will have serious effects on the legislative elections in 2025.⤵️
This article explains the role of the Transnistrian region in the looming crisis in Moldova. For @RidlRussia 👇
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Dec 5, 2024
#Moldova: The country is heading full speed towards a new energy crisis. This time it has three dimensions. A 🧵:⤵️
1) As the gas transit contract between Ukraine and Russia expires, gas supplies to Moldova are at risk. That will primarily affect the power generation capacity of the Transnistrian region, which is largely supplied by the rest of Moldova.⤵️
2) Gazprom would agree to supply gas to the breakaway region, but only if Moldova pays the debts demanded by the Russian side (~$700 million). Even if Gazprom finds a way to export gas to the breakaway region, it will be strictly for social consumption;⤵️
Read 14 tweets

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