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Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
@DionisCenusa
Mar 4, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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#Critical_Technology: The concentration of R&D, academic and technological potential is something to watch closely: 1) China is a leader in many areas; 2) The US and India are closest to China in this race; 3) the EU is falling behind; 4) Russia is not close.⤵️
Analysis by @ASPI_org shows the following trends: 1) The risk of monopoly in defense, robotics and transportation is medium to low, with main competition between China and the US. Drones and small satellites are the areas where that Italy and Germany are in the top 5;⤵️
2) China and the US are dominant in artificial intelligence and computing. India follows in third place, with South Korea and the United Kingdom completing the top 5 in almost all cases;⤵️
3) The situation is more fragmented in advanced materials and manufacturing, with India successfully competing for second place with the US, while China leads the way. South Korea, Germany and the UK are also present in the top 5.⤵️
4) Quantum technology is the only sector where Germany (the EU) has a chance to be in strong positions in the top five, competing with the United Kingdom for third place. China and the United States lead the pack. This makes monopoly unlikely in this sector.⤵️
All in all, China is the leading country in 37 of 44 sectors and the US in 7, respectively. However, monopoly risk persists in only 7 sectors, with China leading the pack. Some of these sectors refer to manufacturing and energy. In general, if the trends do not change,⤵️
the Global South has the potential to become future providers of advanced technology for the Global North. Also, there are different poles of attraction, not just two. The balance of power between democracies and autocracies will be determined by India's trajectory.⤵️
More read in the report of @ASPI_org 👇

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Oct 25
#Georgia: This Sunday's elections will be crucial for the future of the political and social fabric of this country, still a EU candidate state. Both voters and the EU are faced with a dilemma: the continuity of the oligarchic regime or a political rejuvenation. A 🧵:
1) The oligarchic regime of Ivanishvili has not shown any fear of the threats of sanctions from the U.S. and the EU. Nor is the freezing of the EU candidate status perceived as a real risk, as local political interests prevail in the calculations of the Georgian Dream.⤵️
2) Georgian security forces launched investigations into experts from civil society organizations to fuel the narrative that the West would interfere in Georgia's internal affairs. ⤵️
Read 42 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Oct 20
#Moldova: Voting has begun. Around 160,000 voters have cast their ballots in the country (6% turnout so far). Around 15,000 voted in the diaspora. A thread 🧵:
1) The Central Election Commission publishes the turnout for the presidential elections. It is not yet clear whether the figure matches that of the referendum.⤵️ Image
2) Queues are reported at two polling stations in Moscow. At the suggestion of Moldovan intelligence services, only two polling stations were allowed, while the number of people abroad is estimated to be 350,000.⤵️
Read 80 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Oct 5
#Moldova_Elections2024: In 15 days, Moldova will hold presidential elections and a constitutional referendum. Some pro-Russian proxies are vying to enter office. I open a thread related to Russian hybrid interference in Moldovan elections. A🧵:⤵️
1) More than 130,000 Moldovan citizens have received money from Russia through accounts at Sberbank, which is subject to Western sanctions (since 2022). More than 50,000 are directly linked to the Shor Group/“Victory” ⤵️
Bloc (a self-exiled businessman convicted in absentia for the 2010-14 banking fraud). It could mean that another 80,000 people are either Shor supporters or pensioners receiving social payments from Russia;⤵️
Read 18 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Aug 25
#Hybrid: Durov’s arrest in France is suspicious: 1) he knew he was wanted for the quality of content moderation on Telegram platform, used by Russia for spreading disinformation; 2) Durov appears to have deliberately chosen to fly to Paris, even though he was avoiding Western ⤵️
jurisdiction so far; 3) The French arrest warrant was valid only for French territory, which may explain why Durov chose to fly to France and not another European country, where he was immediately arrested; 4) As a French citizen, he will not be extradited, although Russia ⤵️
would like to have him back; 5) One working theory may be that Durov chose to collaborate with the French police, without being clear in return for what, to show that he is not working with Russian states to destabilize France/the West;⤵️
Read 14 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Aug 8
#EU_Neighborhood: The three main narratives employed by the current govts in Georgia, Moldova & Armenia envisage the following: 1) War: The Georgian govt speaks of the risk of the “opening of a second front”, attributed to the West and local opposition forces.⤵️
In Moldova, Russian aggression against Ukraine is at the forefront of govt discourse. Some official narratives in Armenia hint at the danger of a war that could be started by Azerbaijan. 2) External interference: The Georgian govt frequently refers to the “Global War Party”⤵️
(indirectly the West) that gets involved in domestic politics. In Moldova and Armenia, Russia and pro-Russian “proxies” are the usual suspects of interfering to destabilise. 3) European integration: It follows from the Georgian govt narratives that the EU would not be impartial⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Apr 24
#Ukraine_Moldova: They have many things in common, but the most important is the presence of Russian occupation forces. Drawing parallels between the negotiations on the Transnistrian conflict and the peace talks that Kyiv would have to hold with Russia can be misleading. A🧵:
1) Negotiations on the Transnistria conflict in the 2000s were carried out with the mediation of the EU and the US, which rather accepted the terms set by Russian diplomacy (because it is unlikely that both they will be fooled). The conditions were dictated by the context in⤵️
which the West and Russia were looking for platforms on which they could cooperate and the “5+2” format was one of them (not the only one); 2) After the failure of the Minsk agreements and large-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine, neither the West is willing to mediate⤵️
Read 10 tweets

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