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Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
@DionisCenusa
Mar 4, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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#Critical_Technology: The concentration of R&D, academic and technological potential is something to watch closely: 1) China is a leader in many areas; 2) The US and India are closest to China in this race; 3) the EU is falling behind; 4) Russia is not close.⤵️
Analysis by @ASPI_org shows the following trends: 1) The risk of monopoly in defense, robotics and transportation is medium to low, with main competition between China and the US. Drones and small satellites are the areas where that Italy and Germany are in the top 5;⤵️
2) China and the US are dominant in artificial intelligence and computing. India follows in third place, with South Korea and the United Kingdom completing the top 5 in almost all cases;⤵️
3) The situation is more fragmented in advanced materials and manufacturing, with India successfully competing for second place with the US, while China leads the way. South Korea, Germany and the UK are also present in the top 5.⤵️
4) Quantum technology is the only sector where Germany (the EU) has a chance to be in strong positions in the top five, competing with the United Kingdom for third place. China and the United States lead the pack. This makes monopoly unlikely in this sector.⤵️
All in all, China is the leading country in 37 of 44 sectors and the US in 7, respectively. However, monopoly risk persists in only 7 sectors, with China leading the pack. Some of these sectors refer to manufacturing and energy. In general, if the trends do not change,⤵️
the Global South has the potential to become future providers of advanced technology for the Global North. Also, there are different poles of attraction, not just two. The balance of power between democracies and autocracies will be determined by India's trajectory.⤵️
More read in the report of @ASPI_org 👇

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Aug 8
#EU_Neighborhood: The three main narratives employed by the current govts in Georgia, Moldova & Armenia envisage the following: 1) War: The Georgian govt speaks of the risk of the “opening of a second front”, attributed to the West and local opposition forces.⤵️
In Moldova, Russian aggression against Ukraine is at the forefront of govt discourse. Some official narratives in Armenia hint at the danger of a war that could be started by Azerbaijan. 2) External interference: The Georgian govt frequently refers to the “Global War Party”⤵️
(indirectly the West) that gets involved in domestic politics. In Moldova and Armenia, Russia and pro-Russian “proxies” are the usual suspects of interfering to destabilise. 3) European integration: It follows from the Georgian govt narratives that the EU would not be impartial⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Apr 24
#Ukraine_Moldova: They have many things in common, but the most important is the presence of Russian occupation forces. Drawing parallels between the negotiations on the Transnistrian conflict and the peace talks that Kyiv would have to hold with Russia can be misleading. A🧵:
1) Negotiations on the Transnistria conflict in the 2000s were carried out with the mediation of the EU and the US, which rather accepted the terms set by Russian diplomacy (because it is unlikely that both they will be fooled). The conditions were dictated by the context in⤵️
which the West and Russia were looking for platforms on which they could cooperate and the “5+2” format was one of them (not the only one); 2) After the failure of the Minsk agreements and large-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine, neither the West is willing to mediate⤵️
Read 10 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Apr 20
#Moldova_Russia: The implications of Russian aggression against Ukraine are qualitatively changing the symmetry in the Moldova-Russia relations in favor of Chisinau. This is one of the underlying conclusions reached by Ch. Smith (@StateDept) on Moldova. A 🧵:⤵️
1) The US recognizes that there is no real threat from Russia, mainly because its capabilities in Ukraine are at the limit. This has always been the case since the full-scale war began because the Russian military has never come close to reaching the Ukraine-Moldova borders; ⤵️
2) According to the US, Russia is using disinformation in an attempt to destabilize Moldova. Even as the Moldovan govt closed (suspended their licenses) 13 TV channels and is closely monitoring media content, disinformation is continually invoked as one of Russia's main levers.⤵️
Read 9 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Apr 6
#Critical_Infrastructure: The implications of Russian airstrikes against Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure in recent weeks (March-April) are still being assessed. Here are some intermediate findings:⤵️
1) Russian missiles targeted mainly thermal and hydropower production infrastructure; 2) Both generation and transmission infrastructure were severely damaged; 2) Up to 80% of Ukraine's thermal energy production was affected, with varying degrees of damage;⤵️
3) Ukraine is looking for components to make repairs in its neighborhood and around the world; 4) To finance the costs of repairing the infrastructure of the electric prosecutor's office, the Ukrainian authorities may have to increase bills for the population.⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Feb 23
#Moldova_Russia: Meanwhile, the administration of the separatist regime asked the EUBAM mission to intervene and reduce tension, convincing Chisinau to remove urgent points (focusing on customs duties). The Feb 28 event of local deputies at all levels in the Transnistria region⤵️
was presented as an emergency meeting to discuss an eventual looming humanitarian crisis (as depicted by the separatist regime). It seems to be cry for attention of a (separatist) regime for its survival in conditions of falling budget revenues in the region and⤵️
greater control of different functions by constitutional authorities (trade, banking, transportation, etc.). It may yet become part of a broader Russian hybrid operation to save the collapsing status quo around the breakaway region.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenușa Profile picture
Feb 20
#Moldova_Russia: There are early signs of escalation in the dialogue between Chisinau and the Transnistrian region. The dispute revolves around economic interests and, closely linked, the stability of the regime in the separatist region. A thread 🧵:⤵️
1) The Moldovan constitutional authorities are applying a new customs code, which generates costs for the separatist regime. About half of the region's $300 million annual budget could be retained through export and import duties by constitutional authorities. Some⤵️
of the key industries stopped/reduced production and have stopped production because their exports are restricted as a result of Chisinau's implementation of the EU secondary sanctions on Russia regarding dual-use products;⤵️
Read 11 tweets

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