IMO Tesla may have pulled a fast one on the audience during the Investor Day discussions around the next generation platform. I’m going to outline my thought process below.
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When Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, they eliminated a major headache environmentally and quality assurance wise nightmare of the automotive industry. Paint matching between plastic and metal is a nightmare. Color matching repairs on 5 year old UV damaged paint is a nightmare.
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Now many people after watching the Cybertruck unveiling believe you can’t form stainless, this is wrong. Cybertruck exoskeleton design dictated thicker almost “plate” like paneling. Work trucks age extremely fast, and this robustness is a huge benefit. You can form SS.
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So how would you go about coloring Stainless Steel?
One method is to paint Stainless. But this has two major down sides. Chemical treatments, emissions, water consumption, quality control. And the other being poor durability. I suggest not buying “black” stainless appliances.
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Or there is Electroplating or Electrolytic processes which alters the surface composition of the stainless. My understanding is you can do this process before forming and cutting which is a major pluse in manufacturing. But all the downfalls Tesla ditched already with Chrome.
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So lets look back at the images from the unveiling. Notice the modular process they offered for the next generation. How the panels are finished prior to assembly. And the suspect wording “Stamp and Paint”. What if they omitted paint and just stamped Stainless?
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Tesla could very easily use Stainless, and also offer colors in the process. Simply by Vacuum wrapping each stamped component in vinyl, or another PPF type material. When you wrap at manufacturing, you can hide the edges and achieve better adhesion.
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This process is no different then when they lay electrolyte on film during cell manufacturing, or many other manufacturing process like labeling cans for rapid volume. Or wrap IP and the dash.
Once parts are stamped they can then be wrapped in succession, Vacuum and heat.
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This eliminates the paint process completely. But not only in manufacturing. But also auto repair. Auto repair shops instead of trying to color match to UV damaged paint. Just wraps the vehicle again like new.
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Tesla is in the process of eliminating steps. Improving environmental impacts. And cutting down repair challenges. Which brings this full circle. IMO
Tesla is currently bringing many important projects to fruition. Cypertruck, Semi, Model Y, Plaid Roadster S and X, Maxwell Cells, GF2, GF3, GF4, SolarRoof, MegaPack, 🇨🇳 Model 3, AutoPilot.
The following is a collection of my thoughts before the flood gates are opened. Long 🧵
🔋: I have long been a proponent that Tesla will likely never incorporate the 2170 Cell into Performance Model S, X and Roadster. Plaid prototype chassis running the Nurburgring in test mules demonstrates exactly the reasoning.
2)
🔋: Maxwell Technologies was a gift, many missed the reasonings completely. Why did Tesla buy up Maxwell uncontested? What was hiding in plan sight? What has held back cell development?
We need to take a look at current cell manufacturing.
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In a couple hours Tesla will unveil to the would their first mass produced mid sized crossover. What does that mean and what kind or volume can we expect? Let’s dive in.
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The luxury Mid Sized SUV and CUV market as been very healthy and growing. The Top 5 best seller in the 🇺🇸 in 2018 include the very successful Lexus RX which is offered in a 3 row and Hybrid variant. Model Y would need to reach 2200/wk to compete for top spot.
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Tesla has often compared the mid sized Model 3 to the better selling Compact market, and judging by trade-ins Consumers are heading up market. So naturally we should look at the Luxury Compact SUV markets as well. Model Y would out sell the top 3 🇺🇸 at 4100/wk.
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1) November 2018 🇺🇸 automotive sales figures are being reported. Is the US auto industry still weathering a storm? Are fossil Sudan sale still plummeting in the new era of the EV? Follow along:
2) Honda Reports sales of 120,534 Down 9.5% from Nov 2017. Honda Civic, and Pilot and MDX taking the largest hits. Accord holding the line Toe to Toe with Camry and Model 3 in the Mid Sized Sedan market, but down 12.7% in YTD volume.
3) Toyota Sales are relatively flat in 2018. But buyers are fleeing the Fossil power car offerings. Corolla (-10%) Camry (-8.6%) Prius (-18.1%) are having rough years. Most notably Camry who’s the best selling Mid sized sedan in the USA is hemorrhaging sales in Nov (-29.9%)