Thread by @BaluSreevidya

I respectfully disagree with most views on BJP's position wrt 2024 and 2026 in TN (also Kerala).

Here is my reason:

~ The old world political view of seeing elections as opportunities to grow the party is partially gone. In the Modi-Shah era, growing party is BAU.

~ As I have said many times in Spaces and threads, for LS elections, allies, seats or candidates are decided by central BJP to align with its national plan

which is Congress Mukth Bhārath

~ In TN, this means give maximum scare to Stalin and prompt him to ask all allies to

contest under DMK symbol. This will reduce Congress' seats in LS.

~ To do this, Stalin must believe that his opposition is strong. For that, AIADMK, BJP and other allies should all come together and identify winnable seats and candidates.

~ This naturally means @annamalai_k 's

leadership cannot be judged by the alliances he builds, nor the seats he gets for the party. WINNABILITY alone will be the key.

~ If BJP formed a third front, it will only help split anti-DMK votes and DMK will be more confident in winning all MP seats and may get Congress to

contest under their own symbol, which will add its strength in LS. This clearly beats BJP's national goal.

So what do I think will happen?

~ BJP is most likely to stitch AIADMK factions together and hold the main opposition as a strong front. This is a double edged sword

because it serves BJP's national goal, and it fits in with EPS's need to challenge Stalin and build confidence among the cadres and supporters that AIADMK is a force to reckon with.

~ Something similar will happen in Kerala. BJP will ensure victory for LDF across all 20 seats.

~ It will not aim for BJP MP wins. No such risks. Strategy is to ensure no Congress MP goes to Delhi. This they may achieve through tactical voting.

~ I will write another thread (again) on Kerala BJP's position for 2026.

~ Coming to TN 2026, if what I heard on SM is right -

that is, if Nadda spoke about 2026 as opposition, and 2031 rule, it can only mean one thing:

~ 2026, Stalin must come back. If EPS comes back as EPS 3.0, then that will be the end of BJP's fast track growth

~ This I have said many times before. I will repeat, the tactic in 2026

will be to split the NDA alliance and ensure AIADMK does not win. EPS is no friend of BJP, and is the least reliable.

~ If Annamalai's Nadai Payanam gathers the grassroot infrastructure. Those who follow me will know that I always said BJP will need between 2 - 8 lakh workers

with 2 years time to lay ground for Annamalai to be the challenger of the incumbent Stalin.

~ In any election, incumbent and challenger alone are the key factors. Third front, or multi-fronts are vote splitters.

~ Challenging an incumbent needs grassroot infrastructure.

The simple rule being, you have to ask a voter to vote for you.

You need feet on street to reach every voter.

If #Annamalai 's #Nadaipayanam fetches him this strength, then 2026 cannot be ruled out as Tamizh voters don't have tolerance for incumbency beyond 5 years (exc 2016)

As I always suggested, this is highly unlikely, also due to the cadre strength of AIADMK.

~ I would think it will be suicidal for BJP to stitch up a government with AIADMK in 2026.

To be cont'd in another thread on OPS/EPS++