Analysis of Tamizh Nadu Polls #Elections2024

What I have to say is not what you may want to hear. Especially my conclusion that EPS has played this game very well.

1. DMK manages to keep their votes intact but will not get the same win as 2019

2. As I have always maintained, EPS is no fool.

He has emerged as the Oligarch of Tamizh Nadu Politics.

While others lauded EPS for being a great leader, and later called him a fool, mine was the lone voice that said EPS knows exactly what he is doing.

Politically he is dangerous and must be stopped.

I demand CJI to withdraw his outrageous comments on Hon Guv of Tamizh Nadu Sri RN Ravi @rajbhavan_tn

1. Clearly a case of Judicial Overreach (see my pinned thread on what's behind this)

2. What RN Ravi has done is perfectly Constitutional. A minister shall hold office at the 'pleasure' of the Governor. In this case, SC has NOT acquitted the culprit, but only stayed the lower court's award.

Governor has acted as per 'Article 163 and 164 of Part VI - States' of the Indian Constitution. Subsection (3) of Article 163 is inserted to ensure the Governor

Avial thoughts on Politics:

1. CEC brief: very comprehensive reflecting excellent master plan and meticulous blueprint. Felt the only weak point was no concrete answer to how EC will demonstrate enforcement of MCC.

TN among the first states off the block underlines what I have always been saying. TN is a terror hub and brain of deep state

2. Electoral Bonds: crystal clear case of #JudicialOverreach

As mentioned in my pinned thread, Judicial Overreach will be one of the tools to undermine the executive with flow on effect on BJP

Containers of cash from Pakistan in Kerala ports, Biriyani addiction and DMK aligned Drug Mafia - short thread.

This thread is a collection of expose I have made over the past few years.

Drug news is sensational. But it's important to see what's behind all this.

1/16 1. Cash from Pakistan and Demonitisation

During UPA 1.0, it is believed that ISI managed to print Indian currency and sent them in containers to the Kerala coast.



2/16indianexpress.com/article/explai…

Twitter axed this thread pre- @elonmusk takeover.

It unveiled a massive and successful propaganda against Bhārat. As this propaganda rears its head again in the light of the recent events, I'm re-sharing my thread which was written in 2021.

Use information or graphs freely. The propaganda industry in India have focused on 3 major narratives over the past 10 years.

1. Lynchistan

2. Fascist

3. Rapistan

First two failed.

A Shiva miracle in the life of the legendary archeologist K K Muhammad.

Loose translation of his Malayalam interview:

He was posted as the chief for the Chattisgarh branch of ASI.

There was a very Purātan Shiva Temple called Lafagarh temple (Chaithurgarh) in the state. The priest of the temple approached KK and said the temple will be in ruins soon as the structure is about to collapse.

KK said the experts to do the reinforcement work were in Madhya Pradesh, a state he is not in charge and

Many wonder why Congress is boycotting the Ayodhya event. Some view it as a monumental blunder or even Harakiri.

However, their puppet masters are not naive enough to go against the sentiment of the nation and the Dhārmics.

In this thread, I unravel their master plan. First of all, we are talking about a party that survived many tests including an Emergency, Sikh Genocide, and gigantic corruption for over 100 years.

It cannot survive if not supported by long term strategy and patient execution.

Also, this is a party as per Wikileaks cables

"Why isn't @annamalai_k going against EPS now that the alliance is broken?" Many have asked me.

Here's my take:

1. Annamalai won't hesitate to challenge EPS, but it's unnecessary at this moment. This election isn't about the regime change for Tamizh Nadu.

1/10 2. The Central BJP will be eager to gauge the floating votes in LS constituencies before making a move.

They might even do tactical voting to defeat DMK or Congress. So, it's wise not to campaign against EPS party just yet.

3. Going against EPS means giving life to his image.

Note on TN Politics.

1. AIADMK

~ EPS 3.0 I had warned would be more dangerous than DMK. Fortunately, it looks like there isn't going to be an EPS 3.0 after all.

I said in Dec 2020 that if EPS didn't make it back to the CM post in 2021, it's curtains for him. ~ I also said in 2021 that OPS will be able to break AIADMK into pro JJ and Pro EPS factions.

This wedge will deepen towards 2026. ~ I thought EPS saw this coming, and cleverly removed OPS well ahead of 2024.

TN politics unfolding exactly as I predicted in 2020.

The 2021 Assembly election was make or break for EPS, the incumbent CM.

If he lost, it meant game over. No time to grow into a Supremo and no PR skills before 2019.

Same went for Stalin - if he lost, it was curtains for him too.

But there was hope for EPS if he did these 2 things:

1. Embrace his role as opposition leader - In this cadre party, corruption is key.

He had to get dirty and join forces with DMK on the revenue sharing model.

Someone who listens to my repeat mention of 'critical thinking' asked me for an example. I am sharing my response here.

In the movie "Ezhām Arivu," opening scenes show interviews with young people about their knowledge of a historic figure, Bodhidharman. While most Indians were unfamiliar with him, most Chinese knew who he was.

The narrative guilt-trips Indians for not knowing about Bodhidharman.

The film then depicts how this man learned ancient Indian martial arts and traveled to China to teach them.

13 years on Twitter, and this is the longest I've stuck with a moniker. #EnMannEnMakkal means a lot to me. @annamalai_k means a lot to me.

This is history in the making. Here are my three key observations:

1. @AmitShah 's message is loud and clear. He stood by @narendramodi then, and now he stands by Annamalai.

Amit Shah and Modi had the same beginning - from the rural villages in Gujarat several decades ago.

Now another leader begins his journey from the grassroots and Shah wants to be there for him.

NDA 1 & 2 surpassed all my expectations.

No government has fought as hard and honestly for India since the days of invaders.

A heartfelt thank you to @narendramodi and his dedicated team - from top, down to the Karyakarta.

Now, here's my wishlist for 2024 Manifesto.

1/8 1. Scrap 'minority' status and provisions to any religion, caste or creed. All Indians must have the same rights and privileges

2. Base ALL reservations solely on current income levels and stop all other reservations

Hypothyroidism, women empowerment and Sanātana Dharma

In 1991, a first generation career woman became very sick at age 45.

It took the hospital 4 days and an array of tests to finally suggest she had Hypothyroidism - a condition the family had never heard of before. She agreed to lifelong Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT).

Seven years later, her career-woman daughter who was only 25, was diagnosed with the same illness.

But the daughter chose not to follow her mother's footsteps and refused to take any medication.

"Shadow Economy, Soft Terror and Modi's response" - My Notes on Democracy Part 5

Section 1. Shadow Economy:

During UPA 2.0, India gets flooded with Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN)
indiatoday.in/india/north/st… How Pakistan/ISI was able to do this is still speculation.

The strongest link: the supplier of currency mints for India and Pak once was the same country.

The FICN found in India was so alike that 2 out of 3 countries tested it got it wrong.

linkedin.com/pulse/indias-f…

The issue with some nationalists/BJP supporters is that they are often impatient and try to be skeptic at the cost of consistently setting a narrative.

Success of communists across all realms of social life is due to their patience, consistency, and focus on long term outcomes. An example of how some nationalists fail is #DMKFiles. They say this won't create much of an impact and then hop on to other things.

How will it create an impact if you are not willing to repeat the story every day until your relative who is not on SM tells you this story?

#DMKFiles analysis:

1. I know for a fact that @annamalai_k has only updated his dossier on TN corruption which he has been building since 2018.

2. What is out in public is just the tip of the iceberg.

3. He has a clear game plan, but we will know the rules only as we play on. 4. Every reaction to #DMKFiles has been expected and counter actions already mapped - we will see this unfolding in the coming days.

5. He has shown absolute courage by straight-hitting Stalin so that there is no doubt about his intentions, also shows how he positions himself.

Seeing the comments below this tweet, looks like most are new to my views.

To clarify, I believe L Murugan will be CM of Tamizh Nadu in future. Annamalai has said he will not be CM.

But he may become CM, but may not be here for long as he is needed at the centre.

https://twitter.com/BaluSreevidya/status/1646606427996430337

Those who follow my views know that I have been saying all this for some time.

I have always said that Murugan and Annamalai work together.

Those who give me unsolicited advice think they both are in different camps.

If you believe that, you know little about BJP.

Here is my take on @annamalai_k 's latest press meet.

The debate is not about BJP going solo vs BJP going with AIADMK, it is about whether or not to place national interest above Tamizh Nadu being freed from the clutches of the Kazhakams.

What is important? What will happen? As I have said many times in the past, alliance with AIADMK is the choice of the central @BJP4India in the larger interests of the country -

to ensure Congress Mukth Bhārath, and ensuring strength in Rajyasabha.

Alliance with AIADMK is key as every number is precious.

I view this issue seriously.

While some of the victims of the sting don't deserve my time, I do care about the ones I respect.

Urge you not to judge by what the sting selectively revealed. There is a broader issue behind.

This is about how a counter narrative is broken.

1/6

https://twitter.com/iamradioguru/status/1636607764477939712

Karunandihi started controlling the narrative in TN by giving free Television and the the cable network through his nephews.

After two decades, for the first time some journalists started to counter the DK narratives through SM.

These voices were independent and unrelated.

TN Politics - Note 10

In response to questions on my thread about Nirmal Kumar's exit, here is detailed view of BJP-AIADMK relationship.

~ As I said in Jaipur Dialogue in Jan 2021, EPS had everything to lose in 2021 Assembly Elections. He was seeking re-election as sitting CM. ~ EPS was a good administrator. Given time, he will rise to the stature of JJ and even MGR. He has the cunning, patience, skills, determination, and genuine wish to serve people.

His biggest weakness was L&O. His drawback is that no matter how effective he was, he still was the