🧵 1/ This is part two of the "Assault Units" thread, which focuses on suggestions for russian assault units in urban combat, gleaned from captured documents. The section provides general recommendations on tactics that assault units can employ in urban warfare scenarios.
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Main provisions from the document regarding urban warfare:
- To ensure safe passage, holes should be made by tanks or explosives in fences and buildings.
- The route of movement of assault companies, if possible, should exclude movement along roads and straight streets
3/ - Placing observation points on the roofs of buildings is prohibited in urban environment.
4/ - As a military tactics, it is recommended to assign new names to streets and buildings in towns that are being assaulted. This is done to confuse defenders and exploit open coms channels. In the present case, the attackers named the streets Lenin, Stalin, and Khrushchev
5/ - The assault begins with artillery fire on the front line of defense. The transfer of artillery fire to the next line is carried out by the commander
6/ - If the multi-store building is well fortified and can't be easily assaulted, then the "Squeezing" method should be used: instead of blocking the building, the assaulters should take cover in nearby buildings.
7/ - Meanwhile, artillery (or AGS) and firesupport teams should proceed with engaging the target. This way the enemy gets a chance to leave the building while taking losses from artillery, providing an opportunity for the assault team to advance
8/ When an assault platoon tries to clear the multi-store or multi-entrance building, it is recommended to act in the following order:
-One person is set at the entrance, with the task of preventing an enemy attack from the basement or the street.
9/ - The platoon begins to move along the staircase in small groups (3 people) to the upper floors, while soldiers cover each other.
- Clearing is carried out on an apartment basis on each floor, based on the number of rooms in the apartment (one-room, two-room, etc.).
10/ - Three people are enough for a one-room apartment.
- When clearing common corridor on a floor, a cover group (1-2 people) is set with the task of preventing an enemy attack from an uncleaned apartment or stairs from the upper floors.
11/ - The common corridors on the upper floors are mined to exclude the penetration of the enemy into the rear. The clearing of the rest of the building happens in the same method
12/ - After securing all floors, the wall of the apartment on the second floor is broken with TNT or C-4 to get access to the rest of the building.
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As the war progresses, russians aim to modernize and become more flexible by implementing changes. However, most instructions are still top-down and blindly applied across the battlefield based on a few successful examples, resembling a cargo cult.
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Becoming proficient in urban warfare tactics requires extensive training and proper logistics, including training grounds, qualified instructors, and adequate communication equipment. Even with intensive training, it still takes time for a team to become effective
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Does Russia have the necessary capabilities, including sufficient trained officers and NCOs with coms, leadership, teamwork skills to conduct such operations? In my third section, I'll address these questions and examine disparities between manuals and observed practices
16/ I invite you to follow me to stay updated, as social media algorithms may not prioritize war-related content.
Here's the link to access the scanned version of the original Russian manual, published by Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butusov, in case you wish to review it:
The latest satellite images show 3 major developments: a large Russian troop buildup in Bryansk Oblast, damage from recent drone strikes in Kyiv, and unusual military activities at Taiwan’s Wangan Airport.
All three have one thing in common - they were generated by AI. 🧵Thread:
2/ While those who regularly work with satellite imagery or OSINT can quickly tell that something is "off," the quality of AI-generated satellite images is improving fast. As the number of convincing fakes grows, I've put together a few recommendations to help avoid being misled
3/ In the case of the "Kyiv attack," it took just a single prompt on a free platform to generate the image. While it appears convincing at first glance, a closer look reveals clear geometric irregularities - distorted car shapes, and irregular windows and balconies on buildings
A drone attack is ongoing against Russian airbases with strategic bombers. While the full damage is still unclear, several videos show multiple bombers have been badly hit. Satellite images from yesterday confirm that Belaya hosts various Tu-95 models, Tu-22M3s, and Tu-160s
Satellite imagery of Olenya Airbase from May 26 at 09:50 UTC, shared by @avivector , shows the presence of 11 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 5 An-12 (Cub), and 40 Tu-22M3 (Backfire-C) aircraft.
Another suspected target is Belaya Airbase. Satellite images from May 31, analysed by @avivector , show the presence of 7 Tu-160 (Blackjack), 6 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 2 Il-78M (Midas), 6 An-26, 2 An-12, 39 Tu-22M3, and 30 MiG-31 aircraft.
Over the past few months, Russians have focused on disrupting Ukrainian logistics, using a mix of drones, including fiber-optic. Once EW is neutralized or forced to withdraw by fiber-optic drones, it clears the way for drones like the Molniya, which can fly over 20 km. Thread:
2/ Cutting off supply lines has made vehicle transport nearly impossible. In some cases, individual soldiers must walk more than 10 km at night to deliver basic supplies: an unsustainable way for supporting any sizable unit, or even rotating troops.
3/ Despite growing logistical problems, Ukrainian command has made bad choices to launch Russian-modelled assaults. The attempt to capture positions while already struggling to hold current ones, with fewer troops and less equipment, lead to predictably poor outcome
Through the Optics of War: An analysis of leaked confidential data from Russia’s military-industrial complex by Frontelligence Insight — from thermal scopes and laser anti-UAV programs to Chinese import schemes and production bottlenecks in the optoelectronic sector. 🧵Thread:
2/ Rostec is a state-owned conglomerate that includes much of Russia’s military-industrial complex. One of its key holdings, Shvabe, specializes in optical-electronic technologies for military and dual-use applications. The original files were obtained by the @256CyberAssault
3/ In February 2024, Polyus Scientific Research Institute, part of Shvabe Holding, was tasked with advancing laser technologies to counter UAVs. This includes developing materials like active elements under a program focused on high-power lasers, running through 2033.
How bad is Russia’s war chest? Has the country entered stagflation? Why does it fear falling oil prices, but not a crash? And how is the tariff war hurting Russia?
These questions — and more — are explored in a special interview with Russian economist Vladimir Milov.
🧵Thread:
2/ Tariff wars:
China’s economic slowdown has closed its market to many Russian products, hitting major industries hard. The China-focused Russian coal industry is struggling, and Russian non-energy and non-commodity exports are down by about a quarter compared to pre-2022 levels
3/ Tariff war will obviously exacerbate the Chinese slowdown. The slower Chinese growth, the less market for Russian goods. Share of China in the total Russian exports is as high as a third now - we're heavily dependent on this market and its well-being.
1/ The exhaustion of Russia’s vehicle fleet is becoming increasingly evident. The reduced use of armored vehicles and the growing reliance on civilian: including motorcycles, golf carts, and vans, continues to signal a degradation in Russian maneuvering capabilities.
2/ During the winter, outside of Kursk, Russia achieved mostly tactical gains, notably in Kharkiv Oblast, the Chasiv Yar area and Kurakhove–Velyka Novosilka axis. While these advances have been troubling for Ukraine, Russia has so far failed to capitalize on them strategically.
3/ Despite slow progress, Russia still retains the resources and capability to conduct active offensive operations through the summer and fall of 2025. However, as I noted in my analysis last year, the diminishing returns will determine whether Russia will continue this war