Morning reminder: Record numbers of people are leaving Ontario. Young families simply can't afford to live here.
So who, on net, is leaving Ontario for other provinces?

Pretty much every age under 70, with people in their mid-20s being the largest cohort of leavers.

We used to gain a lot of people in their 30s from other provinces. Now we're losing them.
If Ontario is suddenly losing people to other provinces, who is gaining them?

Answer: Alberta, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick.

B.C. is also gaining people from other provinces, but somewhat fewer than they used to.
And it really is high prices and ability to work from home that is causing young Ontarians to move to other provinces.

Ontario has gotten very expensive... and not just Toronto.
Think about that for a sec. Say you're an OHL player and you play for the Guelph Storm or Kitchener Rangers or London Knights or Windsor Spitfires etc. and you get called up to the NHL to play for the Habs, Jets, Oilers or Flames, you're moving to a less expensive housing market.
Here's a list of all OHL cities in Ontario, and whether or not their home prices are higher or lower than Edmonton. (I feel like this is prime @stubbs980 content).
If I were to substitute Winnipeg for Edmonton, then both Sudbury and North Bay go into the "More Expensive" column, leaving the Soo Greyhounds as the only Ontario-based OHL team in a market with cheaper real estate than the home of the Winnipeg Jets.

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More from @MikePMoffatt

Feb 19
I don't think people realize how big Southern Ontario's population is. So here's a reference. Toronto and the surrounding area have a population the size of Alberta and British Columbia... combined.
Heading east, we can also incorporate Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Northern Ontario has a nearly identical population to Newfoundland + the territories.

This works because Ontario’s population (15.1) is almost exactly that to the rest of Canada, excluding Quebec.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 10
With my son facing some serious health struggles, I'll be away for a bit. So I'll leave you with one last housing thread.

Title: Policymakers simply don't understand the scope of Canada's housing supply challenge.
There's a bunch of estimates of how many units we need to build over the next decade to support a growing population and demographic change.

In Ontario, the province says 1.5M/10 years. The CMHC pegs it at closer to 2.5M.
Similarly, across Canada the federal government says we need 3.5M/10 years. The CMHC puts the number at 5.8M/9 years. cbc.ca/news/canada/to…
Read 11 tweets

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