1. Confirms that platforms other than F-16 are still being considered including F-15s and F-18s. IMO key is to give Ukraine the ability to destroy Russian SAM air defenses that can cover Ukraine. With HARMs used as they were intended to be used Ukraine can push S-300,
2. S-400 and BUK out of the battlespace with the air-space full of capable Ukrainian pursuit and attack air force. Russia will then have few options other than to pull back or lose their SAMS and fighter force.
Once the SEAD mission is compete, above 12,000 ft (manpads range)
3. will be clear so Ukrainian attack aircraft can then safely bring NATO smart munition to bear against the Russian invading forces. JDAMS and SDBs will create a massive overmatch. This strategy would mean a brief air battle with Russian fighters out-matched by F-15s and then
4. the unprotected Russian ground force can be completely destroyed if they don't withdraw. If suicidal Putin forces the battle that destroys the invasion force, Russia could cease being the most powerful conventional force in the region and Ukraine can dictate Russia's future
5. role as Black Sea power. While the #Nuremberg2 trials get under way. Or Patrushev could do what he knows needs to be done and end this now by removing Putin while Russia is still a powerful nation and can still sail warships in the Black Sea.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Mar 6
1. My take:

"Trump fighting to bar use of White House lawyers' grand jury testimony in special counsel probe: Sources" abcnews.go.com/US/trump-fight…
2. Cipollone and Philbin likely have not been sharing their testimony with anyone who might disclose it to FPOTUS. People who are being called to testify are either first-timers or repeat appearances to give them a chance to recant their earlier testimony.
3. Whomever they are they could be having the Cipollone and Philbin transcripts read to them to corroborate Cipollone and Philbin's testimony. So someone in this group of recent witnesses has disclosed it in a way that it got back to #45.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 6
1. I won't speculate on Bakhmut so I will report on objective evidence of what appears to be happening. First, in the past 24 hours there were reports of Russian shelling across a large area of the front. This far, it does not appear to be related to an offensive. Image
2. Here is the NASA Firms map showing what appears to be fires related to the shelling that based on their light tan color at left were about 24 hours ago. Then Ukraine appears to have subsequently hit multiple targets in a wide range of Image
3. Russian held areas. The amber color evidences they are about six hours old. A quick survey of the fires appears to place them in remote areas near roads. One was near what appeared to be an old ammunition storage area. I think it this may be evidence of attacks Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 5
1. From this remarkable statement I take one fact to be true: Russia is very low on artillery ammunition. The smart move would be an orderly withdrawal but that's what he's resisting. He's concerned he'll be blamed for the defeat. Wants to throw more Mobiks into the fire pit.
2. I think there are other factors adding to his melancholy. One is that Ukraine is soon to receive many more M270 systems, the tracked double-sized version of HIMARS MLRS. I saw a report where the British were preparing to ship a number of them. It looked like a lot. Image
3. They can fire the LR-SDBs that puts almost all of Russian occupied Ukraine, other than a small part of Crimea, in range of deadly accurate weapons. In addition, with promised main battle tanks and armored fighting vehicles, Ukraine is soon to become much stronger at a time
Read 5 tweets
Mar 3
1. After many thoughtful responses to my question regarding what was happening in June 2020 to explain why Jack Smith's subpoenas went that far back, I think @BaddCompani pointed me in the right direction. In May 2020, FPOTUS went to Camp David, at least twice.
2. Around the time of the first Camp David visit, armed protestors entered the Michigan state Capitol. During the last May trip, the weekend of May 16-18, is when I think the coup plot may have been hatched. After that, FPOTUS called for armed forces to be deployed to DC.
3. During this time FPOTUS was reeling from reports he was unable or unwilling to call out Putin after the reports he had put cash bounties on US service members in Afghanistan. I went back to try to understand why I had forgotten the Camp David meetings. I had filing deadline
Read 12 tweets
Mar 3
After watching prosecutor's cross-examination I concluded that a quick Murdaugh verdict would likely mean a conviction. Thought the defense would hope that it would take time. Every day would add to his chances of a mistrial. We'll know soon if I was right. #murdaughverdictwatch
Guilty.
Guilty
Read 7 tweets
Mar 1
1. The NASA Firms fire data strongly suggests that the explosions in #Yeysk ccurred on an old Soviet air force facility in the area of the base's ordinance magazine. I make the base as an old bomber base with a weapons magazine consistent with that use.
2. My guess is that, based on the range from known Ukrainian positions, it might have been hit with GLSDB's at their extreme range. If not and if we rule out more smoking accidents, the Ukrainians have some capability that is not currently known.
3. Here is the base. On the right you can see overgrown Christmas trees near the 11,000 foot runway that suggest that this was once a bomber base. In can't find any record online so it's just a guess. Lower right shows the FIRMS fires in relation to the runway. ImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets

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