As I strive to provide #content for my followers, I typed up my ratings from this weekend. Of the 200+ wines I tasted, ~150 were producer samples of guaranteed quality, and ~100 of those were reds (I don't drink enough white burg to have an opinion). Editorializing to follow:
The scoring method was just A+ to F, since it needed to be simple enough to be robust to me getting smashed over the course of the tastings, since I didn't spit. The older wines were Friday, all the 2020s were Saturday.
It is probably not surprising that Dujac, Hudelot-Noellat, Salon, etc. had the best wines. However, I was very impressed with the Robert Chevillon NSG wines, and the Didier Fornerol regional appellations punched way above their weight. Denis/Arnaud Mortet was also great.
In terms of recent vintages, 2019 was the best by far, 2015 and 2017 were consistently great too, 2020 and 2018 were generally good but had some variability, and 2016 wasn't particularly appealing to me.
I didn't rate wines from dinner, since "buy 2002 Cros Parantoux on release in mags" isn't exactly actionable advice. However, if you do decide to go, the pro move is to roll in stone cold sober at 10 when everyone is totally hammered and start drinking their abandoned wines.
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Doesn’t take a genius to read behind the lines here and conclude that the agencies most likely to have actual relevant data from China think it’s natural, whereas the one who would have the least (the FBI, a *domestic* agency) has the highest confidence it is a leak (“moderate”).
The current agency distribution is 4-2-2 natural-leak-undecided, and curiously despite the breathless reporting on the FBI+DOE the identities and arguments of the 4 is are unremarked upon, despite their evidence being persuasive enough that an interagency panel sided with them.
Also, look, not to be tweeting about COVID in the year of our Lord 2023, but doesn’t lab leak prove that all the things lab leakers were complaining about were justified? If it’s a dangerous engineered Chinese pathogen then of course vax mandates, shutdowns, etc. are a good idea!
Ren is impressed with the natural environment and beauty of the US, and is amazed that in New York ("the largest and most prosperous city in the United States, but also the dirtiest one with the worst social order", New Yorkers btfo) has a space like Central Park
He complains that Chinese in America are too frugal, while American spend lavishly and make many friends, which allows them to easily succeed in business and commerce
Militaries are built to accomplish specific goals, which dictates their cost- for instance, France's is "fuck around in Africa", China's is "take over Taiwan", Pakistan's is "fight India", etc. The US's is "win a war against anyone anytime anywhere in the world in under a month".
The US can deploy an 800-man Ranger battalion anywhere in the world within 12 hours, a 4,000 man rapid response brigade within 24, an armored Stryker brigade within 96, and an entire armored division within 5 days.
Many people look at US aircraft carriers and assume it must be slow and defenseless because that’s how you would balance a video game. In fact, they are the fastest *because of their size*. A Chinese 055 stealth destroyer has a hull speed of ~32kn, a nuclear powered carrier 44+!
Quick analysis: Musk pledged 69mm (sigh) shares in 2020 at an average VWAP of $257 + 18mm shares in prior years when the stock was ~60. Assuming a 25% initial LTV, his existing borrowings are likely ~$6bn. Whether this gets refinanced is critical to if the TWTR deal gets done.
If you assume that, for whatever reason, he is stuck in those loans and cannot free up the shares, he only has 75mm unencumbered shares left, so the minimum price Tesla can have for him to get a $12.5bn loan is $12.5bn/20%/75mm = $837.44, which was breached yesterday. Not good!
However, if he can roll that $6bn+ into another loan at the new terms, then now he only needs Tesla to stay above $18.5bn/20%/163mm = $567.61, which is 25% below the current price. Much more doable. If he can get the old loans refi'd at 25% LTV, then it only needs to be $530.79!
Student loan debt in America: the angle is proportional to the number of people with debt in that range, the area is proportional to the total value of debt in that range. The top 10% of borrowers have half the debt, a Gini coefficient of 62%.
Everyone complaining about this visualization:
Enough! I relent, and will bow to the crass taste of the masses. I have added in the % of total debt and changed it to a soft baby-friendly pastel color scheme, so the babies whining about it in my mentions will finally shut up.