I don't have much news for today, so this will be light.
There were a lot of shelling reports out of Sumy today. I do not believe any of these targets were shelled very heavily. Likely 2 or 3 shells in each location.
Russians continue their attacks around Kreminna without any success.
The greater Bakhmut area is without much change. Perhaps small advances toward Bohdanivka, a few hundred meters perhaps.
Russian control over the eastern side of the Bakhmutivka River is growing. One of my sources told me Russia controls the entire eastern side of the river, but I cannot confirm that.
In the Avdiivka area, Russia is attacking Novobakhmutivka, Krasnohorivka, Kamyanka, Sjeverne, and Pervomaiske. All with minimal, if any, changes.
The attack toward Pervomaiske from Vodyane (highlighted arrow) seems to be having the best results for Russia in this area. Russia is also attacking Nevelske, where they hope to eventually break through Ukrainian defenses. So far, failure.
In my opinion, Russia is trying to break through Nevelske so they can attack the city of Krasnohorivka from the north, and then continue pushing west toward Karlivka (or north to Pervomaiske if Ukraine still controls it )
In the Marinka area, Russia is continuing to attack Marinka itself without much progress. They are destroying buildings in the city one at a time (and there aren't many left) trying to break the Ukrainian defense.
They are also attacking south toward Pobjeda. There may be Russian progress here toward the town. They have reached the town with assault groups before, but were beaten back. The more recent attacks may have dug in to new positions, I am not sure.
Russia is attacking Pobjeda in an effort to bypass Marinka. I think they would likely attack south toward Kostyantynivka and north toward Heorhiivka and Kurakhove if they capture Pobjeda.
The string of settlements behind Novomykhailivka ( Kostyantynivka, Illinka, Uspenivka, Bohoyavlenka, and the other smaller settlements between them), in my opinion, are a serious impediment to Russia's advance in this area.
Ukraine struck Volnovakha multiple times today, perhaps with GMLRS.
Ukraine also heavily shelled Polohy.
Ukraine stated today that they destroyed several Russian assets on Kinburn Spit, but I believe this was confirmation of attacks from yesterday and not a new strike.
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The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.
Guys I took my division and charged them into combat and while we lost 50% of our armored vehicles and 45% of our infantry are dead, and several of our HQs were destroyed and most of our best officers are dead, we captured a village where 200 once lived so we’re winning the war.
Tomorrow we will send our next division to assault the next village. That one had a population of 1200. Its actually considered a huge city, when you think about it. If we can capture that, we will send our third division to capture the hamlet behind it.
I wrote 2 years ago about why I was worried about Molniya drones. They are long range and capable of very large warheads. For whatever reason they were oddly scarce for a while, but they have become very common items on the battlefield and exactly everything I feared.
They can destroy a house in a single hit. Even small concrete buildings. They can dive straight down into dugouts, fly along trenches and fly into bunkers. They are being used to target infantry now, too. Russia clearly has a lot of them and are using them to destroy things that used to require helicopters.
They cost around $1000 each, roughly 2x a base level drone or roughly the same price as a higher end fpv drone. But they can carry a 6-7kg bomb and can fly over 40km.
The United States government is built on the concept that Congressmen will have the swagger to take pride in their station. The government hinges on congress enforcing their will upon others. They are supposed to be arrogant sons of bitches who look down on others.
The moment you have a congress that is unwilling or incapable of being arrogant, condescending assholes and you instead have weak placating losers, the whole foundation of the government crumbles. The supreme arrogance of congress is what lets them reign in power of president.
Right now the US has the weakest congress in its history. A bunch of spineless losers who are incapable of even having independent thought. They are owned entirely by others, especially the republican party who bows to a president. Imagine, a CONGRESSMEN bowing to a PRESIDENT.
A few areas where I have been focusing on geoing strikes on Russians positions lately have been interesting in that only a very tiny number of Russians are defending. In one area in particular, the video showed a drone scan a series of trenches where only four Russians were spotted. Two killed and two forced to flee. I wonder what is behind those Russians, and whether it is similarly a skeleton crew on defense. Also, these Russians were quite far from Ukrainian positions, so they were not some extremely advanced forward position, they seem to me to be the second and/or third line of defense, which are typically more heavily manned.
When I see video like this, from an area very far from offensive actions, where Russia is purely defending, it makes me wonder how different the war would be if Ukraine had the capacity to attack this location. I feel like if Ukraine were to attack and capture it, many people online would say the area doesn't matter because it is only advancing 1km or blah blah. But advancing 1km is important, because it forces Russians to divert resources away from attacking to defending. Or you will advance a second k, or a third km until such a point that the Russians are forced to defend.
There is an area where Ukraine has been slowly advancing in this manner. Nobody is really talking about it, because it isn't sexy. It doesn't impact any large battles, it isn't a sign of things to come, or anything else. It is just Ukraine taking advantage of Russia failing to adequately defend positions.