Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Mar 6, 2023 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
An update for March 5th, 2023. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com

I don't have much news for today, so this will be light.
There were a lot of shelling reports out of Sumy today. I do not believe any of these targets were shelled very heavily. Likely 2 or 3 shells in each location.
Russians continue their attacks around Kreminna without any success.
The greater Bakhmut area is without much change. Perhaps small advances toward Bohdanivka, a few hundred meters perhaps.
Russian control over the eastern side of the Bakhmutivka River is growing. One of my sources told me Russia controls the entire eastern side of the river, but I cannot confirm that.
In the Avdiivka area, Russia is attacking Novobakhmutivka, Krasnohorivka, Kamyanka, Sjeverne, and Pervomaiske. All with minimal, if any, changes.
The attack toward Pervomaiske from Vodyane (highlighted arrow) seems to be having the best results for Russia in this area. Russia is also attacking Nevelske, where they hope to eventually break through Ukrainian defenses. So far, failure.
In my opinion, Russia is trying to break through Nevelske so they can attack the city of Krasnohorivka from the north, and then continue pushing west toward Karlivka (or north to Pervomaiske if Ukraine still controls it )
In the Marinka area, Russia is continuing to attack Marinka itself without much progress. They are destroying buildings in the city one at a time (and there aren't many left) trying to break the Ukrainian defense.
They are also attacking south toward Pobjeda. There may be Russian progress here toward the town. They have reached the town with assault groups before, but were beaten back. The more recent attacks may have dug in to new positions, I am not sure.
Russia is attacking Pobjeda in an effort to bypass Marinka. I think they would likely attack south toward Kostyantynivka and north toward Heorhiivka and Kurakhove if they capture Pobjeda.
The string of settlements behind Novomykhailivka ( Kostyantynivka, Illinka, Uspenivka, Bohoyavlenka, and the other smaller settlements between them), in my opinion, are a serious impediment to Russia's advance in this area.
Ukraine struck Volnovakha multiple times today, perhaps with GMLRS.
Ukraine also heavily shelled Polohy.
Ukraine stated today that they destroyed several Russian assets on Kinburn Spit, but I believe this was confirmation of attacks from yesterday and not a new strike.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Dec 3
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 1
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 18
Guys I took my division and charged them into combat and while we lost 50% of our armored vehicles and 45% of our infantry are dead, and several of our HQs were destroyed and most of our best officers are dead, we captured a village where 200 once lived so we’re winning the war.
Tomorrow we will send our next division to assault the next village. That one had a population of 1200. Its actually considered a huge city, when you think about it. If we can capture that, we will send our third division to capture the hamlet behind it.
Every day we advance. That means we’re winning.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 21
This is what Russia does. A country that only exports oil, gas, and war. This is the city of Marinka. Image
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Read 4 tweets
Jul 26
I wrote 2 years ago about why I was worried about Molniya drones. They are long range and capable of very large warheads. For whatever reason they were oddly scarce for a while, but they have become very common items on the battlefield and exactly everything I feared.
They can destroy a house in a single hit. Even small concrete buildings. They can dive straight down into dugouts, fly along trenches and fly into bunkers. They are being used to target infantry now, too. Russia clearly has a lot of them and are using them to destroy things that used to require helicopters.
They cost around $1000 each, roughly 2x a base level drone or roughly the same price as a higher end fpv drone. But they can carry a 6-7kg bomb and can fly over 40km.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 3
The United States government is built on the concept that Congressmen will have the swagger to take pride in their station. The government hinges on congress enforcing their will upon others. They are supposed to be arrogant sons of bitches who look down on others.
The moment you have a congress that is unwilling or incapable of being arrogant, condescending assholes and you instead have weak placating losers, the whole foundation of the government crumbles. The supreme arrogance of congress is what lets them reign in power of president.
Right now the US has the weakest congress in its history. A bunch of spineless losers who are incapable of even having independent thought. They are owned entirely by others, especially the republican party who bows to a president. Imagine, a CONGRESSMEN bowing to a PRESIDENT.
Read 7 tweets

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