I don't have much news for today, so this will be light.
There were a lot of shelling reports out of Sumy today. I do not believe any of these targets were shelled very heavily. Likely 2 or 3 shells in each location.
Russians continue their attacks around Kreminna without any success.
The greater Bakhmut area is without much change. Perhaps small advances toward Bohdanivka, a few hundred meters perhaps.
Russian control over the eastern side of the Bakhmutivka River is growing. One of my sources told me Russia controls the entire eastern side of the river, but I cannot confirm that.
In the Avdiivka area, Russia is attacking Novobakhmutivka, Krasnohorivka, Kamyanka, Sjeverne, and Pervomaiske. All with minimal, if any, changes.
The attack toward Pervomaiske from Vodyane (highlighted arrow) seems to be having the best results for Russia in this area. Russia is also attacking Nevelske, where they hope to eventually break through Ukrainian defenses. So far, failure.
In my opinion, Russia is trying to break through Nevelske so they can attack the city of Krasnohorivka from the north, and then continue pushing west toward Karlivka (or north to Pervomaiske if Ukraine still controls it )
In the Marinka area, Russia is continuing to attack Marinka itself without much progress. They are destroying buildings in the city one at a time (and there aren't many left) trying to break the Ukrainian defense.
They are also attacking south toward Pobjeda. There may be Russian progress here toward the town. They have reached the town with assault groups before, but were beaten back. The more recent attacks may have dug in to new positions, I am not sure.
Russia is attacking Pobjeda in an effort to bypass Marinka. I think they would likely attack south toward Kostyantynivka and north toward Heorhiivka and Kurakhove if they capture Pobjeda.
The string of settlements behind Novomykhailivka ( Kostyantynivka, Illinka, Uspenivka, Bohoyavlenka, and the other smaller settlements between them), in my opinion, are a serious impediment to Russia's advance in this area.
Ukraine struck Volnovakha multiple times today, perhaps with GMLRS.
Ukraine also heavily shelled Polohy.
Ukraine stated today that they destroyed several Russian assets on Kinburn Spit, but I believe this was confirmation of attacks from yesterday and not a new strike.
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A few areas where I have been focusing on geoing strikes on Russians positions lately have been interesting in that only a very tiny number of Russians are defending. In one area in particular, the video showed a drone scan a series of trenches where only four Russians were spotted. Two killed and two forced to flee. I wonder what is behind those Russians, and whether it is similarly a skeleton crew on defense. Also, these Russians were quite far from Ukrainian positions, so they were not some extremely advanced forward position, they seem to me to be the second and/or third line of defense, which are typically more heavily manned.
When I see video like this, from an area very far from offensive actions, where Russia is purely defending, it makes me wonder how different the war would be if Ukraine had the capacity to attack this location. I feel like if Ukraine were to attack and capture it, many people online would say the area doesn't matter because it is only advancing 1km or blah blah. But advancing 1km is important, because it forces Russians to divert resources away from attacking to defending. Or you will advance a second k, or a third km until such a point that the Russians are forced to defend.
There is an area where Ukraine has been slowly advancing in this manner. Nobody is really talking about it, because it isn't sexy. It doesn't impact any large battles, it isn't a sign of things to come, or anything else. It is just Ukraine taking advantage of Russia failing to adequately defend positions.
Ukraine does not have an adequate air force, but it can create the effects of an air force using other methods and tools. For example, long-range drones can be deployed in a series of nested concentric circles to mine and harass supply roads, effectively cutting them off.
One layer of drones could strike targets 100 km out, the next at 80 km, then 60 km, 40 km, and finally, the remaining drones could dominate the last 20–30 km leading to the front.
With sufficient drone coverage density, the impact on enemy logistics can closely mirror that of a conventional air force—cutting off supplies and limiting troop movements.
Furthermore, the development of heavier strike drones, with payloads between 100 and 500 kg, can replicate the effects of traditional airstrikes. In conjunction with attack drones, this combination becomes a deadly one-two punch: attack drones locate and relay target positions, and heavier strike drones follow up with rapid and destructive precision.
Once the enemy's rear positions are degraded to this extent, the front becomes unsustainable. The opposing force will be forced to withdraw, regardless of intent.
Ukraine does not need large offensive pushes to defeat Russia. It needs extremely high-density drone coverage to deny Russian sustainment. Land can be taken back piece by piece, without committing to large and costly ground assaults.
All but the heavy strike drones can be done with the technology that Ukraine has available today, right now. The strike drones could be developed in short order. This is a realistic path to victory using the tools and resources available. And one which Europe could help using financing alone.
Europe could also provide longer range weapons for Ukraine’s existing aircraft, which is frankly a much more unrealistic path forward. Albeit possible. And Europe doesn’t really have the weapons available to give, so would require making them first.
After Trump put Fedex guys in charge of USPS, the democrats should issue an official warning that any aspect of USPS that might get “privatized” under trump will be immediately seized, without compensation, by the following administration and congress.
There should be an open air understanding that any aspect of the government privatized by Trump will be seized back without compensation. We will eminent domain your ass, and change any law (or court makeup) to make it legal.
The property of the people isn’t for sale. That’s the message.
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Sitting here listening to a news report from the 1970s where the police broke into the wrong house in a police raid, where every American was... normal. They were outraged, they wanted immediate accountability and changes to the law. And then congress... changed the law. Apparently the US had a functional society at some point.
Literally in 4 days there will be a major supreme court case in the US about this. That law from the 70s, the federal government has basically declared the law doesn't count. On Tuesday, four days from now, there is a Supreme Court case where the courts will decide whether that law written by congress is going to be followed or whether the judiciary gets to invent their own laws and ignore congress.
And nobody is talking about this, for some reason. Even after literally yesterday where Trump literally signed an executive order THAT ALLOWS FEDERAL AGENTS TO SEARCH YOUR HOUSE WITHOUT A WARRANT.