Hans Kristensen Profile picture
Mar 6 6 tweets 3 min read
Two B-52 bombers currently conducting ground targeting training over Denmark. 60-0026 (NOBLE12) and 60-0056 (NOBLE11). The B-52s are 2 of 4 on Bomber Task Force deployment to Moron AB in Spain. Here’s tweet from similar exercise last year:

#B52 ImageImage
After Denmark, the two B-52 bombers are heading east over the Baltic Sea and turning southeast over Poland for a display of force and training in the region. The two aircraft 60-0026 (NOBLE12) and 60-0056 (NOBLE11) are both nuclear-capable, but not carrying nukes. Image
The B-52 operations over Europe are taking place as other B-52s are operating over Northeast Asia.
The B-52s are now circling over northwest Poland. Combined, the two bombers can carry up to 40 long-range cruise missiles and from here would potentially be able to hold at risk facilities throughout all of western Russia with up to 6 Megatons of explosive power. ImageImage
After apparent refueling over Poland, the B-52s split up: one heading west and the other (60-0057, NOBLE11) flying east over Baltic Sea. Image
After circling west of Tallinn, a little over 400 km from St Petersburg, the B-52 (60-0056, NOBLE11) is heading back southwest. Image

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More from @nukestrat

Mar 8
1/n - In addition to my earlier tweet thread about the HASC strategic forces hearing today, the prepared testimony from STRATCOM's new commander includes some interesting new and some curious statements. armedservices.house.gov/hearings/strat… Details below in this thread: Image
2/n - The first is that each silo in 3 new new missile silo fields "can be equipped with the CSS-10 Mod 2 ICBM [DF-31A], which is capable of ranging the continental United States...with...MIRVs."

Neither NASIC nor 2022 DOD report have attributed MIRV to DF-31A.
3/n - The second is "PRC's most modern road-mobile and MIRV-capable ICBM advanced from concept to deployed system in only a few years."

Well (assuming he's taking DF-41], DOD first reported it in 1997, then again in 2012, and first MIRV test in 2018.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 8
House Armed Services Committee hearing on US strategic posture is underway. armedservices.house.gov/hearings/strat…

Lambourn immediately shows his simplistic view of nuc strategy: "Now that China has more ICBM launchers than the United States, STRATCOM has more targets to hold at risk."
STRATCOM commander Gen Cotton did not take the bait from Lamborn that more Chinese launchers mean US needs to increase its nuclear arsenal.
Turner tries to use Russian New START to argue for looking at re-MIRVing US ICBMs and also mentions bombers (including B-1).
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8
1/n - DNI's Annual Threat Assessment is out. intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/… (This is the coordinated assessment, not the military one.)

Link to hearing video: intelligence.senate.gov/hearings/open-… Image
2/n - On reason for China's nuke buildup: Beijing has "concluded that their current capabilities are insufficient [and] worries that bilateral tension, US nuclear modernization, and the PLA’s advancing conventional capabilities have increased the likelihood of a US first strike."
3/n - On Russia, report says degrade of ground/air conv wpns in Ukraine war has "increased its reliance on nuclear weapons." Russia is "expanding and modernizing its large, diverse, and modern set of nonstrategic systems."
Doesn't necessarily mean nuke for them also increasing.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 25
Great to attend large demonstration in Washington DC for Ukraine and against Putin’s brutal aggression. One poster said it all.

#StandWithUkraine️ ImageImage
More photos capturing the great spirit at the demonstration in Washington DC today for Ukraine!

#StandWithUkraine ImageImage
Among the speakers, Samantha Powers, the Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 29, 2022
DOD has published its 2022 report on Chinese military developments. The report covers developments up until end-2021, nearly a year ago. media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/20…

Main nuke overview below. Blog coming soon:
The report states that size of China’s stockpile probably surpassed 400 warheads in 2021, up from low-200s in 2020. sipri.org/sites/default/…

Largely reaffirming our estimate of 350 Chinese warheads from early-2021.
DOD projects Chinese stockpile could increase to 1,500 warheads in 2035. Basis for projection is vague and uncertain but largely seems to assume last years’ increase continues halfway through next decade.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 21, 2022
1/n - In his latest speech, Putin rattles the nuclear sword again. This time by threatening nuclear use if the “territorial integrity” of occupied territories in Ukraine he plans to declare part of Russia after sham referendum is “threatened.” kremlin.ru/events/preside… Image
2/n - Unlike the generic nuclear threat issued at the start of his attack on Ukraine in February, this threat is explicitly linked to the military situation in Ukraine. And “when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened” goes beyond Russian declaratory policy. Image
3/n - To justify that, Putin mentions “statements of some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO states about the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction against Russia - nuclear weapons.”

Haven’t seen that, except in RESPONSE to Russian use. Image
Read 5 tweets

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