Hans Kristensen Profile picture
Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. Tracking nuclear arsenals, writing Nuclear Notebook, SIPRI Yearbook. Opinions my own.
Jun 25 4 tweets 3 min read
As suspected, deployment of E-6B TACAMO nuclear command, control and communication aircraft to Norway indicated forward operations with nuclear missile submarines.

What I didn't expect was one of them surfacing off Norway in a blunt signal to Russia. 👀
One of the images shows low-level flight of the E-6B over the SSBN, which based on the flight track appears to have been 30-40 km from the Norwegian coast.
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Jun 17 8 tweets 3 min read
1/n Nuke statement by Stoltenberg: "I won't go into operational details about how many nuclear warheads should be operational and which should be stored, but we need to consult on these issues. That's exactly what we're doing."

A short thread: 👇telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202… 2/n I don't think this means, as some reactions claim, that the US is planning to put its non-strategic nuclear weapons in Europe on alert or standby. Here are some facts:

1. The US has an estimated 100 B61 bombs "stored" at six bases in five countries. tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.10…
May 6 6 tweets 3 min read
Russia to hold exercise in southern mil district “to increase the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces…in response to provocative statements and threats of individual Western officials against” Russia.

See Rus nukes overview: t.me/mod_russia/383…
tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.10…
Image Putin has previously used nuclear rhetoric against West during his war in Ukraine but this is to my knowledge the first time he has ordered tac nuke exercise of forces in district off Ukraine with explicit reference to West. Obviously intended as a signal.
Jan 6 4 tweets 2 min read
Corruption effects on Chinese nuclear buildup: "missiles filled with water instead of fuel and vast fields of missile silos in western China with lids that don’t function in a way that would allow the missiles to launch effectively."

Possible crime scene: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image The link has changed. Here is the new one: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Dec 1, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
Kudos to NNSA for organizing this NGO expert visit to Nevada National Security Site. It’s was an honor to take part. Access to facilities/officials was impressive. The message was loud a clear: No, the US is not planning a nuclear test explosion. 1/n energy.gov/nnsa/articles/…



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2/n We were taken into the P-tunnel where they’re conducting nuclear test verification experiments, 950 feet down into the PULSE (U1a) complex where the labs do subcritical plutonium implosion experiments for nuclear weapons (I saw LLNL’s upcoming NIMBLE device).
Jul 11, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
1/n - The NATO Vilnius Summit Communique is out. On nuclear issues it largely reiterated existing policy but with a couple of nuances. https://t.co/E0WoXCtZfnnato.int/cps/en/natohq/…
2/n - This includes “strengthen training and exercises that simulate” conv & nuc dimension of a crisis/conflict to get “greater coherence between conventional and nuclear components of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture across all domains and the entire spectrum of conflict.”
Mar 25, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read
Putin apparently said he will deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. A storage site would be ready by 1 July. ria.ru/20230325/khran…

The story is a bit odd. Unclear if this warheads or launchers. If true, it would be Russian version of US nukes in Europe. Much uncertainty and confusion from initial reports about what he actually said. More nuances here:
h/t @Jack_Mrgln
Mar 24, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
A B-52 bomber (60-0026) with new callsign HOJO11 has departed Moron AB in Spain. Heading southwest passing over Rota. Image B-52 (60-0026, HOJO11) is continuing far west. Possibly one of a pair. @SirListenalot reported possible return to Minot AFB. Bomber Task Force to Moron AFB began a month ago with overflight of Tallinn and has involved noteworthy operations over Baltic region. Image
Mar 11, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read
B-52 bomber (60-0026, NOBLE61) currently operating over northern Norway. ImageImage Mission over norther Norway complete, B-52 (60-0026, NOBLE61) heading south after overfly of Tromsø. Image
Mar 9, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
Reuters: Australia to buy up to 5 US Virginia-class nuclear-propelled attack submarines in 2030s. Moreover, in addition to annual port visits, by 2027 the US will forward-deploy some submarines in Western Australia (Perth?). reuters.com/business/aeros…

More details later today. Image I have questions…about US sub building capacity, sale of sensitive technology. Hopefully more clarity after San Diego meeting later today.
Mar 9, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
Two B-52 bombers operating out of Moron AB in Spain are circling over southern Bulgaria. They are 60-0026 (NOBLE41) and 60-0056 (NOBLE42?). Both are nuclear-capable (but not carrying nukes). ImageImage Interesting that EUCOM announced B-52 deployment as the bombers were on their way. Normally they announce it after.
Mar 8, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
1/n - In addition to my earlier tweet thread about the HASC strategic forces hearing today, the prepared testimony from STRATCOM's new commander includes some interesting new and some curious statements. armedservices.house.gov/hearings/strat… Details below in this thread: 2/n - The first is that each silo in 3 new new missile silo fields "can be equipped with the CSS-10 Mod 2 ICBM [DF-31A], which is capable of ranging the continental United States...with...MIRVs."

Neither NASIC nor 2022 DOD report have attributed MIRV to DF-31A.
Mar 8, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
House Armed Services Committee hearing on US strategic posture is underway. armedservices.house.gov/hearings/strat…

Lambourn immediately shows his simplistic view of nuc strategy: "Now that China has more ICBM launchers than the United States, STRATCOM has more targets to hold at risk." STRATCOM commander Gen Cotton did not take the bait from Lamborn that more Chinese launchers mean US needs to increase its nuclear arsenal.
Mar 8, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
1/n - DNI's Annual Threat Assessment is out. intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/… (This is the coordinated assessment, not the military one.)

Link to hearing video: intelligence.senate.gov/hearings/open-… 2/n - On reason for China's nuke buildup: Beijing has "concluded that their current capabilities are insufficient [and] worries that bilateral tension, US nuclear modernization, and the PLA’s advancing conventional capabilities have increased the likelihood of a US first strike."
Mar 6, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
Two B-52 bombers currently conducting ground targeting training over Denmark. 60-0026 (NOBLE12) and 60-0056 (NOBLE11). The B-52s are 2 of 4 on Bomber Task Force deployment to Moron AB in Spain. Here’s tweet from similar exercise last year:

#B52 ImageImage After Denmark, the two B-52 bombers are heading east over the Baltic Sea and turning southeast over Poland for a display of force and training in the region. The two aircraft 60-0026 (NOBLE12) and 60-0056 (NOBLE11) are both nuclear-capable, but not carrying nukes. Image
Feb 25, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
Great to attend large demonstration in Washington DC for Ukraine and against Putin’s brutal aggression. One poster said it all.

#StandWithUkraine️ ImageImage More photos capturing the great spirit at the demonstration in Washington DC today for Ukraine!

#StandWithUkraine ImageImage
Nov 29, 2022 8 tweets 3 min read
DOD has published its 2022 report on Chinese military developments. The report covers developments up until end-2021, nearly a year ago. media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/20…

Main nuke overview below. Blog coming soon: The report states that size of China’s stockpile probably surpassed 400 warheads in 2021, up from low-200s in 2020. sipri.org/sites/default/…

Largely reaffirming our estimate of 350 Chinese warheads from early-2021.
Sep 21, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
1/n - In his latest speech, Putin rattles the nuclear sword again. This time by threatening nuclear use if the “territorial integrity” of occupied territories in Ukraine he plans to declare part of Russia after sham referendum is “threatened.” kremlin.ru/events/preside… Image 2/n - Unlike the generic nuclear threat issued at the start of his attack on Ukraine in February, this threat is explicitly linked to the military situation in Ukraine. And “when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened” goes beyond Russian declaratory policy. Image
Sep 19, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
1/n Excellent article by @KofmanMichael and @AnyaFink on escalation management & nuclear employment in Russia’s military strategy. warontherocks.com/2022/09/escala…

It contains serious challenges to popular claims about Russian “escalate-to-deescalate” strategy.

Required reading! 2/n Some gems:

“There is no gimmicky ‘escalate to win’ strategy, in which military strategists believe they can start and quickly end a conflict on their terms thanks to the wonders of nuclear weapons.”
Sep 18, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
At Joint Base Andrews for airshow. F-35s and F-22 5th gen fighters getting ready. Both the B-52 and B-1 bombers are here. Missed the B-2 flyby yesterday. But I did my own New START inspection of the B-52 (61-0021) from Barksdale AFB. Yep, this is a denuclearized version. See, no external identifier. ✅ ImageImage
Mar 29, 2022 5 tweets 3 min read
Two B-52s are airborne. One (61-0003) heading east into Germany. The second (61-0039) heading east over the Mediterranean Sea south of Turkey. ImageImage After reaching a point over Slovakia about 140 km from Ukraine border, the B-52 headed southeast over Hungary, turning east into Romania. Image