Randy Mott Profile picture
Mar 7 15 tweets 5 min read
US AID TO UKR
There is a major misconception the US is providing a big majority of the aid to UKR. This is only true of mil aid & because only the US had unused stores of the necessary eqpt. This is important because it fuels part of the resentment over aid. Please retweet./1
US mil aid involved just the weapons needed by Ukraine. But some allies have even given far more in proportion to what eqpt that had available./2
All US aid is also exaggerated in the media because people are led to believe that new aid announcements are cumulative to the $120 B authorization: they are not./3
The US aid authorization figure of $120 B is for the next seven years. It is running under $30 B a year, since most of the expenditures are "back-filling" for donated eqpt & ammo. Actions that are ongoing for a few years./4
US expenditures in aid are ironically therefore made in the US for most of the mil aid (our biggest component). See previous chart. As eqpt & ammo are replaced, they are also frequently upgraded. A new HIMAR missile will often be more capable than the one given to UKR./5
US aid also needs to be seen through the lens of the size of our GDP compared to allies. Several NATO allies give far more of their GDP than the US. This also correlates to their their proximity to Russia: they know the risk of letting Putin win./6
To everyone who thinks that UKR spending should be used at home instead: explain how $30 B a year out of the US defense budget can fix any of our domestic ills, in the context of a federal budget of trillions that you apparently think is now unable to do so./7
Since most of the funds are spent in the US on defense contracts, they generate taxable income, jobs, and secondary employment in the US (from various suppliers). So their impact of the federal deficit is less than many forms of govt spending./8
Contrary to some partisan political claims from members of my own party, the aid is aggressively audited and financially tracked, verified by third-parties./9
Weapons are all tracked down to the end-user. This is even now going to units on the front in actual contact with Russians. See 2nd half of interview w/ ex-Green beret vet./10
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukr…
No verified reports of actual diversion of US-supplied arms have been found, although every case is investigated./11
armedservices.house.gov/hearings/full-…
US mil aid has been a decisive factor in allowing UKR to win the war and defeat the invading forces from Russia. UKR does not need or ask for US or NATO troops and is winning./12
This will not be an "endless war" and can be resolved this year. The end will result in Russians out of UKR, And new air defenses will protect its cities./13
defenseone.com/policy/2023/02…
US is honoring its pledge in Budapest to guarantee the security of UKR borders. It is stopping Putin from taking 2nd largest country in Europe. Further preventing Russia from ability to invade or threaten other neighbors for many years./14
carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurop…
Putin has bluffed about using nuclear weapons for months. Their use would not affect the outcome of the war: he will still lose, causing massive addtl costs to Russia. The safest course to prevent nuclear war is to not allow the threat to be effective./15
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

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More from @randymot4

Feb 11
1/13
Okay. I have to go here. There has been a systematic campaign to try to discredit Zelensky. It comes from one place: the Kremlin. Before I do details: ask why he has 90% approval in UKR and support from all of NATO, from people who see him every day & under great stress?/1
All of those folks will have enormously more info than you do and a much greater interest in an effective president. So could it be that you might be conned by a fake video or photo? Occam's Razor./2
Start with the latest Russian re-assertion of a crazy story they try early in the war: Zelensky is a big cocaine user. Every attempt was been debunked (that they were faked should also tell you something -who has a motive?)./3
observers.france24.com/en/europe/2022…
Read 13 tweets
Feb 10
A new theme is to force Ukraine to make peace. This is undoubtedly one of the dumbest ideas to emerge from the war. The Gaetz proposal would cut off US aid (now audited)to try to force a peace deal. This thread sets out the reasons why this is nonsense:
@Threadapp unroll
What would the US gain by this: a reduction of $22-30 B a year in expenditures over 4-5 yrs. About 6-7% of the annual DOD budget. A savings that could come from trillions in other wasteful spending and which would not make a dent in anything. /2
How would it work? UKR loses aid: Russia then says starting peace talks depend upon UKR giving up all occupied land. With aid cut, Russia would increase its demands for surrender even more. Certain outcome: Create crazy peace conditions and keep fighting a weakened UKR./2
Read 16 tweets
Feb 10
Why are the media and even smart folks like CEPA missing the existence of an elaborate UKR aid accountability system? Here is CEPA - totally ignoring the legal requirements and new procedures:/1 @CEPA
cepa.org/article/will-a…
Multiple articles in MSM before and after the election discussed Republican concern about more oversight, but none mentioned the rules now in place. This sloppiness has unnecessarily threatened the bipartisan commitment to Ukraine./2
If there are problems with the aid procedures, then they should be discussed and improved. But it seems that no one is even acting like they know what is happening le alone articulating any informed opinion about it./3
Read 4 tweets
Feb 8
How deranged are some of my Republican colleagues that we would be upset about a Chinese balloon flying over US, but seem to ignore NATO concerns over Putin occupying the 2nd largest country in Europe? /1
carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurop…
Show thread
Russian occupation of a country that borders multiple NATO allies would necessitate a beefed-up US presence in Europe. The cost of this would be much larger than US aid to UKR. The risk of direct conflict with Russia escalated by a big margin./2
The temptation for European countries and others to accommodate to Russian interests would be also greatly increased. Reducing US influence in the world to perhaps dangerously low levels./3
Read 25 tweets
Jan 31
RUSSIAN BIOLAB FAKE INFORMATION
This thread exposes an elaborate effort to try to argue that the US is providing aid to UKR to cover up US-sponsored bioweapons labs in UKR. This is easily proven a scam. Please bookmark this and retweet it./1
@threadreaderapp unroll
All the photos in the tweet try to portray a bioweapons cache. Your warning light should flash anytime a photo is not sourced. That is the case here, as the photo has nothing to do with bioweapons. It does not even look like bioweapons/2
In fact, this is a photo from a highly publicized visit by Senator Obama as a part of a US-UKR program to destroy old Soviet CONVENTIONAL weapons:/3
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2…
Read 19 tweets
Jan 29
Many folks w/o a lot of info use the Ukraine conflict to speculate that whoever their perceived enemy may be is somehow behind the war or aid and is benefiting. This allows personal bias to replace inquiry and facts. It excuses not taking any time to check things./1
show thread Image
We all have personal narratives to describe the world. Some more reality-based than others. But with thousands of lives at stake and the future of Europe riding on the outcome, everyone should concede ignorance or ask questions./2
I started in February learning more. Although I live in Warsaw and have worked in the defense sector and knew a bit about UKR. I took the time to check every question I had or saw on social media. A bit of a private crusade./3
Read 5 tweets

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