Thread by @PatrickRuffini

Voters age 18 to 29 voted 66-32 for Obama in 2008, a margin of 34 (!) points.

Voters age 30 to 44, overlapping almost exactly with that 2008 cohort, supported Democrats by 4 points in the midterms.

That’s a shift of 30 points right.

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1633284169039216642

If you look at 2020, the same holds: Biden +6 or +12 among 30-44s. Catalist has +18. +12 seems like a sensible middle ground estimate. That’s still a crazy shift right from the 2008/10 baseline.

And the argument back is that something like either a 10-15 point lean so deep into people’s voting career is unprecedented. That’s true. But we’ve also never seen an over 55 vote lean this far right—and they’re a bigger share of the electorate than ever.

Let’s be clear about the reason for this: nonwhite voters. I have a book coming out in September that largely focuses on this. Part of the reason we are seeing a shift among Obama-era young voters is that Republicans are winning more nonwhite young voters. amazon.com/Party-People-M…

That big shift in Miami? Most of it was among younger Hispanics who immigrated since 1995. There was something like a 50 point shift among post-1995 Cuban arrivals.

That’s not an isolated incident either.

Hispanic new voter registration has trended about 15-20 points more Republican across states post-Trump.

Black younger males are something like 20% Trump.

And @EquisResearch postmortems finding bigger positive shifts in Trump approval in the 2020 election cycle among low-propensity voters, who are basically younger voters.

Younger Hispanics, Black voters and Asians are more ideologically polarized, meaning partisanship = ideology. Even if they’re more liberal, this is good for Republicans because right now the GOP is getting crushed among older nonwhite moderates, though this improved in 2020.

Why this 30-44 group is super interesting is because all of the trends we like to talk about #OnHere have fully worked their way through this group. Education polarization is super high and so is the gender gap.