The obvious question for Brexiters and for Britain is:

What did you expect?

1.

theguardian.com/world/2023/mar…
The response is fairly typical. "Well Britain can set its own rule and buy British" and so forth.

But actually this is a problem of Brexit that is widespread in different industries and likely to be exacerbated.

2.
Britain is a large arms producer. It is also host to a major financial centre.

In both cases Brexiters insist that UK will continue exporting and trading because it is "important".

Here though we can see the lie become apparent.

3.
The synergies and cash available within Europe will simply divert investment into Europe; UK manufacturers will not be able to compete; the UK will end up either buying more expensive be less high quality arms, or buying European (or American) arms.

4.
Ultimately this means a transfer of wealth (and knowledge, and security) to Europe.

And for the City of London? It is obviously much more dominant that the UK arms industry, and it is a more complex industry.

5.
But the City has cut itself off from its enormous hinterland that ran from the Arctic to the Algarve, from Connacht to Crete. That is not without consequences. It cannot offer the integrated synergies, with the best will in the world, that European centres can.

6.
Money is already starting to leave London and pool in European centres (and indeed flee for Zurich, NYC, HK and Dubai).

Certain niches will survive, of course (Russian money, for example, tax evasion, particular funds), but Brexit means being shut out of the natural

7.
hinterland and market, to the detriment of specialist areas where the UK had a comparative advantage, like the City and the arms industry, chemicals, pharma., fishing, and pretty much everything else you care to name.

#Brexit
#ThankEU

Ends
PS Britain may remain a boutique arms manufacturer, in much the same was as Brexit's causing the death of mass car production will still leave some Formula 1 teams based there.

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More from @nialloconghaile

Mar 6
Despite Europe's global leadership in regulation, this has been apparent to leaders in Bxl and capitals for years. The expansion to Central Europe, the CU with Turkey, and the close relationships with Ukraine and others are meant to give those states a close relationship with

1
the regional order, and to bulk up the region, in the event that the global order fails (owing to security, public health, environment, etc.)

This has been very successful, exporting not just European standards, but stability and European values in many cases too.

2.
the recent European generosity towards the UK in the protocol can be seen in that light: major UK divergence is now little more than a chimera; it will be dependent on Europe for regulation; it needs to be taken into the tent so as to contribute.

3.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 4
Not such a good idea to talk about winners and losers.

For one thing, the UK and its citizens had "lost" once they had voted for Brexit and engaged A50.

1.

economist.com/europe/2023/03…
For another, Europe needed to protects its member states, citizens and way of life. It this it succeeded absolutely.

2.
But it is telling that the Brexiters and many Britons feel they have "lost". Quite simply, life is worse outside Europe and there is strength in unity.

But it is also clear that Brexit, apart from being foolish, was plain directionless from the off.

3.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 2
@anandMenon1 points out that Labour and Cons really have the same Brexit policy now, both in substance and in image.

1.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Labour presumably understand the need to differentiate themselves so as to get remainer support (not just votes). Yet so far nothing.

If we assume that Labour has been actively forming relationships in Bxl, Paris, Berlin and so forth as the gov in waiting...

2.
Is it possible that there have been no announcements on how to make Brexit a bit less painful because there is little interest on the part of Europe?

Alternatively, do they not understand what Brexit is doing to the UK?

3.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 2
Very interesting article. Yes, accessible and balanced.

1.
It looks to me like the "Stormont brake" will never be used, because the trade measures that'd follow would be enormous and fall disproportionately on WM parties' English constituencies.

Good. It won't leave potential lacunae in the SM or drag us into NI's byzantine politics.
You'd have to say, this, along with continued checks and monitoring at Larne, should go a long way to protecting the SM from lower GB standards.

3.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 20
Just sick at how British politics doesn't recognise the enormous sacrifice that Europe has made for Northern Ireland.

The whining has to stop.

1

itv.com/news/2023-02-2…
They complain about 🇪🇺 law. Yet, NI is being given privileged access to the SM for goods. This splits the four freedoms in a way that it would never ordinarily allow.

Only possible with 🇪🇺 law.

2
As for democratic deficit, NI refuses to contribute to the European budget for the well-being of others, unlike CH, Norway, etc.

#NoRepresentationWithoutTaxation

3
Read 4 tweets
Nov 13, 2022
A very interesting stage has been reached in UK-EU relations. It's worth asking how the UK has played it so badly that it has turned the world against it.

A thread.

1
First thing to note it that Europe did not do anything out of the ordinary. It consulted with its stakeholders (MSs, business, close trade partners) and assessed the United Kingdom position, and then formed a coherent negotiating position.

2
That assessment of the UK was made easier by the actions of the Brexiters: their rhetoric closed off potential avenues that might have been profitable.
Read 19 tweets

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