Ben Casselman Profile picture
Mar 8 8 tweets 4 min read
There were 10.8 million job openings at the end of January, down slightly from an upwardly-revised 11.2 million in December.
Layoffs up slightly. Quits down slightly. All consistent with a gradually cooling (but still hot) labor market. #JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j…
The exception, of course, is hiring -- way up in January, to 6.1 million from 4.6 million in December. (Remember, these are gross figures, not net like in the monthly jobs report.) Consistent with the big gain we we saw in the jobs report last month.
Job openings *are* trending down. It's just a very slow process, and not a smooth one. Openings are still far above any prepandemic level.
There are still close to twice as many job openings as unemployed workers. Hard to say anything about the trend on this one -- maybe it's easing a bit, but if so only very gradually.
Quits fell by more than 200,000 in January, the biggest one-month decline since May. It had looked for a bit like the decline in quits might have stalled out, but this suggests it's continuing.
The comparison between quits and openings continues to be interesting. Both remain elevated, but openings much more so -- quits are starting to return to something more in line with historical norms.
Layoffs rose in January. They're still low by historical standards, but the pickup is starting to look a bit more real.
@melbournecoal and I wrote about the low level of layoffs last month:
nytimes.com/2023/02/26/bus…
Gross hiring picked up in January, consistent with what we saw in the jobs report. But I wouldn't read too much into the monthly ups and downs -- the bigger picture there still seems to be one of gradual cooling.

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More from @bencasselman

Mar 10
U.S. employers added 311k jobs last month. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
Live coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/03/1…
Lots of talk (including by me!) that we might see a big downward revision to the January figure, but no: January revised down by a modest 13k, to +504k. December revised down by 21k to +239k.
We've added an average of 351,000 jobs over the past three months, 336k over the past six. Not sure we can say that job growth is *accelerating*, but it sure isn't slowing down meaningfully. Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 3
WOW: U.S. employers added a whopping 517,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/02/0…
November/December both revised up, by combined 71k. That's separate from the benchmark revisions throughout 2022.
Average earnings up 10 cents/hour. Up 4.4% over the past year. Unlike everything else in the report, that's consistent with a continued gradual cooldown.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 2
Tomorrow is #JobsDay, my favorite day of the month! Except that tomorrow's report is going to be so, so, SO annoying. Quick, nerdy thread on why:
First, population adjustments! For the January jobs data every year, @BLS_gov incorporates updated population estimates into the Current Population Survey (the source of data on the labor force, unemployment, etc).
Importantly, BLS does *not* revise its previously published data -- it treats each year's adjustment as a one-time change, as if the population suddenly grew or shrank in January, as you can see in this chart. Image
Read 15 tweets
Jan 31
Overall employment costs rose 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 1.2% in Q3. Up 5.1% from a year earlier.
Pretty much same story for private-sector wages and salaries: up 1.0% q/q, 5.1% year-over-year.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
Some signs of a slowdown in one of the most closely watched series:
Private-sector wages & salaries, excluding incentive pay, grew 0.9% in Q4, a slowdown from 1.2% in Q3. Year-over-year rate down to 5.2% from 5.6%.
On a year-over-year basis, wage growth has leveled off, but not really fallen in any meaningful way. Quarter-over-quarter figures are noisy, but we're no longer seeing the runaway increases that got the Fed so worried in late 2021/early '22.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 27
December income/spending data from @BEA_News:
Consumer spending: -0.2%
After-tax income: +0.3%
Consumer prices: +0.1% m/m, +5.0% y/y
Core prices: +0.3% m/m, +4.4% y/y
Full data: bea.gov/news/2023/pers…
Consumer spending has been the engine keeping the economy moving forward over the past year. So it's a big deal that it fell in December. November also revised down from a small increase to a small decline. Image
The strong job market is continuing to lift incomes, though the gains were a bit weaker in December. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 12
U.S. consumer prices *fell* 0.1% in December. Year-over-year inflation slowed to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
Excluding food and energy, prices were up 0.3% from November and 5.7% from a year earlier.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/c…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/01/1…
Energy prices down 4.5% last month (gasoline down 9.4%). Used cards down 2.5%. Airfares down 3.1%. But rents up 0.8%.
Inflation has slowed markedly on both a year-over-year and month-to-month basis in recent months.
Read 10 tweets

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