Leon Simons Profile picture
Mar 8, 2023 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
For decades this area has been kept relatively cool by sulfur emissions from ships.

But this changed in 2020. Image
On January 1st 2020 new shipping regulation came into effect (#IMO2020), decreasing the maximum amount of sulfur in shipping fuels from 3.5% to 0.5%.

From 2020 we see a rapid increase in the amount of solar radiation that's being absorbed by the region highlighted above. Image
If this trend continues that could mean that the Northern Hemisphere mid latitudes (where many of us live) will warm much more rapidly.

It could also impact global and regional weather systems, like the monsoons.

More extreme weather is likely. Image
See my earlier thread for more details:

Oceans are already warming more rapidly:

Sea Surface Temperatures have spiked for the Northern Hemisphere Mid Latitudes.

In 2022 these were 1°C above the 1979-2000 average.

It takes a lot of heat to warm the oceans. Image
This all coincidences with a record rate of global warming.

I wrote more about that here:

Air pollution has also been hiding the precipitation increase of global warming:

"When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined ... the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying."

science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

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Global warming is mainly ocean warming.

This is part of the reasons why the 80% reduction in sulfur emissions from shipping significantly increases global warming.

The peak global cooling/dimming effect from shipping is uncertain, but in scale potentially equal to the warming effect of ~20 years of current GHG emissions:

Global sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions from international shipping since 1850: Image
More on regional aerosol changes here.
With many (peer reviewed) sources at the end.

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More from @LeonSimons8

Jul 14
👇🏻🥶
🌍🌡📉

If the AMOC shuts down, winter in Bergen, Norway will be about 30°C colder!..
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Much less heat will be transported northward through the Atlantic Ocean.

Aerosols were keeping the AMOC relatively strong (reduced weakening from greenhouse gas warming).

With the reductions in aerosols, that AMOC strengthening has largely vanished.


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The scientific community is keeping the world ignorant about this:

Read 5 tweets
Jun 14
🌊🌡📈
Sea Surface Temperatures of these Northern Oceans were a record of >9 standard deviations above the 1951-1980 climatology in May.
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When using 1991-2020 climatology, the peak was in April and "only" 4 Standard Deviations:
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The Sea Surface Temperature dataset from @NOAA goes back further, so here we can use the 1901-2000 climatology (which some like to use as a preindustrial baseline): Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 4
🔥Decadal warming of 0.42°C!?🔥

There is a lot to going on here.
Please bear with me as I break it down below.Image
@CopernicusECMWF @ECMWF @OceanTerra @DrJamesEHansen @NOAA @NOAAClimate 🌍🌡️📈
First note the temperature of 2023 and 2024 (up to May) plotted in red.

These are the global monthly average surface air temperatures above 1850-1900 (from @ECMWF ERA5).

The past 12 months were on average +1.63 °C! Image
@CopernicusECMWF @ECMWF @OceanTerra @DrJamesEHansen @NOAA @NOAAClimate Also note the monthly temperatures from 2015-2016 in purple.

The same 12-month period was +1.29 °C above estimated 1850-1900 temperatures! Image
Read 9 tweets
May 29
📈
Like many leading climate scientists, most of my followers got this wrong!

Earlier this month I asked my followers whether outgoing infrared radiation to space has been increasing or decreasing.

Outgoing longwave (IR) from @NASA satellite observations is record high!

1/
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There is an increase in greenhouse gases, but also a decrease in aerosols.

Less sunlight is reflected to space and more is absorbed.

Part of that excessive heat leaves our planet as infrared radiation instead:

But there is a relative decrease in outgoing infrared!

Relative to how much sunlight is absorbed.

Read 5 tweets
Mar 29
Must read on the aerosol termination shock, darkening of our planet, and on the accelerating regional and global warming!

It's getting harder and harder to deny what @NASA and @NOAA observations are telling use.

Full mailing copied below:



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Absorbed Solar Radiation and Earth's Energy Imbalance are off the chart, leading to acceleration of regional and global warming!


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Sea Surface Temperatures are increasing most where sulphur emissions from shipping reduced most and where the increase in absorbed sunlight is most apparent.


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Read 5 tweets
Mar 19
People living in and around this area might want to know that the amount of Absorbed Solar Radiation in this area increased to +4.3 W/m² in 2023 since 2000-2009!

This is more than the greenhouse gas forcing from all greenhouse gases we've added to the atmosphere since 1750!Image
+4.3 W/m² for over 10% of the Earth's surface!

If people understood what this means, it would be front page news everywhere.

We all know this won't be covered anywhere.Image
These +4.3 W/m² over 54,340,000,000,000 m² added 7.4 ZJ of additional heat in the 12 months of 2023!: Image
Read 4 tweets

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