Air pollution has also been hiding the precipitation increase of global warming:
"When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined ... the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying."
The peak global cooling/dimming effect from shipping is uncertain, but in scale potentially equal to the warming effect of ~20 years of current GHG emissions:
Absorbed Solar Radiation and Earth's Energy Imbalance are off the chart, leading to acceleration of regional and global warming!
Sea Surface Temperatures are increasing most where sulphur emissions from shipping reduced most and where the increase in absorbed sunlight is most apparent.
People living in and around this area might want to know that the amount of Absorbed Solar Radiation in this area increased to +4.3 W/m² in 2023 since 2000-2009!
This is more than the greenhouse gas forcing from all greenhouse gases we've added to the atmosphere since 1750!
+4.3 W/m² for over 10% of the Earth's surface!
If people understood what this means, it would be front page news everywhere.
We all know this won't be covered anywhere.
These +4.3 W/m² over 54,340,000,000,000 m² added 7.4 ZJ of additional heat in the 12 months of 2023!:
The world absorbed a lot more sunlight, as less was reflected.
While greenhouse gases kept most of the additional heat in.
Add El Niño and all temperature records shattered!
More 👇🧵
Let's start with the sun. It's a bit brighter, as it is starting to reach the peak of its 11-year cycle.
But that doesn't explain why our planet absorbed an additional 2.3 Watts per square meter over its 510 trillion m² surface, compared to the first decade of satellite data:
As global temperatures increased, the amount of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) increased.
But not as much as the Absorbed Solar Radiation (ASR) increased, leading to an increased rate of global heat uptake: Earth's Energy Imblance.
The North Atlantic Ocean reached 365 days of continuous record high temperatures!
Thank you to the journalists who have accurately reported on this!
E.g:
Scientists warn Earth warming faster than expected — due to reduction in ship pollution cbc.ca/news/science/m…
After the publication of our @DrJamesEHansen et al. Pipeline paper, the person smearing our research and question my qualifications, coauthored a paper agreeing with the @NASA CERES data we presented.
Unfortunately, global warming is indeed accelerating:
🌎📉🌍
I did some basic energy and water calculations on the scary AMOC study (1) that's making headlines, so you don't have to.
It's quite simple, so please don't let the orders of magnitude scare you off.
This is a Big F*cking Deal (BFD)!
First, what are we talking about here?
What is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?
It's a shitload of water transporting a shit ton of heat energy North, through the Atlantic Ocean!
The study starts with an AMOC strength of about 15 sverdrups, or 15,000,000 cubic meters of ocean water per second.
This transports about 1 PW (1 petawatt = 1*10^15 watt) of heat North from the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics.
That's about 32 ZJ (32 zettajoules = 32*10^21 joules) of heat per year.
When the AMOC tips, most of this ocean heat transport stops.
The obvious question people are asking is "could this happen any time soon and how?"
The study (as have others, for example @DrJamesEHansen et al. (2016) (2), which is not referenced for some reason) shows that a lot of fresh water input from rainfall and Greenland ice melt could shut this thing down this century.
The more fresh water is added, the slower the AMOC becomes.
The tipping in the model happens at about 0.5 sverdrups (0.5 Sv, 500,000 m³ per second) of fresh water input.
There is a lot of fresh water waiting to add those 0.5 Sv, if only there was enough heat available to melt the ice sheet of Greenland.
0.5 Sv is 1.6*10^13 m³ of water per year.
Greenland holds 2.85*10^15 m³ of ice, which could provide about 170 years of 0.5 sverdrups of fresh water (after which global sea levels would be over 7 meters higher).
To melt 0.5 sverdrups worth of ice for a year takes 5.3 ZJ of heat.
Since 1970, our greenhouse gases have caused about 450 ZJ of additional heat to accumulate in the Earth system. ~90% of that warmed the oceans.
Aerosols, notably from coal plants and ships burning sulfur rich fuels, have reduced that heat accumulation.
Now that we are reducing aerosols, more heat is accumulating.
The larger North Atlantic Ocean region shows a spike in how much sunlight is being absorbed over recent years, while higher temperatures cause more heat radiation to space.
The net effect is a spike of over 2.4 W/m² above the 2000-2009 average. This spike added 4 ZJ of heat over 12-months:
The record high global energy imbalance is now (2023) about 1.8 W/m², which adds 29 ZJ of heat to the Earth system over a year.
To make a long story short, the heat is there to melt enough Greenland ice to shut the AMOC down.
And we don't need all that heat to be directed to the melting of ice, as more precipitation also contributes.
And of course, we are only making the climate forcing and Earth's Energy Imbalance worse by rapidly increasing greenhouse gas concentrations while decreasing aerosols.
Sorry I couldn't make this more hopeful.
But numbers don't lie.
(1): Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course
René M. van Westen et al. (2024)
(2): Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: Evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming is dangerous
@DrJamesEHansen , @MakikoSato6 et al. (2016) science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/37…
Also see this thread, and this great article by @bberwyn: