Walter Derzko Profile picture
Mar 10 11 tweets 3 min read
Russia to the bottom
Mar 9, 2023

Racist propagandists relish the publication in The Washington Post that, they say, "the USA will need 15 years" to restore its potential - due to the reduction of defense spending and aid to Ukraine, which exceeded $32 billion.
1/
Trying to present this as a problem, the Rashists do not see the unpleasant conclusion: the more the US and its allies help, the more interested they are in the victory of Ukraine.

And the Rashists, on the other hand, are shelling Ukrainian cities,
2/
adding weight to the arguments about providing weapons as soon as possible. To complete the picture, Ukraine must demonstrate in every possible way that it is an outpost of freedom and democracy - and the pressure on Russia will increase.
3/
1. The price of gas in Europe fell below $450 per 1,000 cubic meters. m for the first time since the end of July 2021.

2. Turkey suddenly stopped the transit of sanctioned goods to the Russian Federation.
4/
The customs system of Turkey blocks their registration. It is the sanctioned goods that are stuck, which go to the Russian Federation through "parallel import".

No one wants to fall under secondary sanctions.
5/
3. Commerzbank - the second bank in terms of assets in Germany - stopped servicing payments to Russia.

It is interesting that this bank was one of the first to start working in Russia, back in 1993.
6/
The loss of another major European bank cuts off the channels through which the Russian financial system is connected to the outside world, locking it into the ruble zone and dealings with rogue countries.
7/
4. The Binance crypto exchange closed the purchase of dollars and euros for Russians through its mechanisms.

5. Russia's budget is bursting at the seams from these and other measures.
8/
In Russia, arrears from salaries to state employees are growing rapidly. They account for almost 20% of salary debts in the economy of the Russian Federation.

Salary arrears due to late receipt of funds from budgets of all levels in February 2022 increased several times.
9/
As of Mar 1, the total amount of salary debts to state employees reached 152 M rubles, although in Jan it was 10 million, and at the end of Dec the debt was zero.

The number of employees whose payments are delayed has reached 18,900 and has more than doubled in one month.
10/
Debts to educators increased 12 times in February.

Salary arrears to doctors increased by a significant 37% in a month.

There is no money, but you hold on.

And it will continue

#sanctions #rashists #bottom #tothebottom #russiamustdie

Rostyslav Pavlenko, Kyiv.
11/

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Walter Derzko

Walter Derzko Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @SmartEconomy

Mar 10
The 🇺🇦 War dividend?

One of the very few benefits from the 🇷🇺 war in 🇺🇦, which Ukraine has paid a tremendous price for, is that after 🇺🇦 wins, one of the three post war conditions is that Russia will be forced to pay reparations for lost lives & damaged infrastructure
1/
in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Russian reparations combined with a western Marshal plan 2.0 will allow Ukraine to get brand new infrastructure from scratch!
New roads, hospitals, schools, residential living quarters, industry, etc
2/
which should set the Ukrainian population up for the next 2-3 generations. And it will widen the gap between a new, modern Ukraine and crumbling, outdated, decrepit Russian Soviet infrastructure.
3/
Read 10 tweets
Mar 9
Russia Now Experiencing Same Deformation of Economy to Support Military that Killed USSR, Grozovsky Says
Paul Goble
Mar. 4, 2023

What happened at the end of Soviet times & ultimately killed off the USSR is happening again in Russia Boris Grozovsky of Important Stories says.
1/
The country is producing rockets & tanks “but people don’t feel” any benefit from this as a result because those increases are being paid for by a decline in the standard of living. That is the summary conclusion the analyst reaches on the basis of a survey
2/
that is the summary conclusion the analyst reaches on the basis of a survey of what is now happening as the Kremlin shifts the country to a wartime economy, something it wasn’t prepared for and is now moving toward only at the price of leaving the population without
3/
Read 10 tweets
Mar 8
Russian Collapse

Russia is collapsing not just because of sanctions.

If you study the demographics carefully, you will notice, that if Russia didn’t start the war in 2022, soon they would not have enough teens from 18-20 year old cohort to draft into the army
1/
not to mention enough workers for the labour force to replace retiring baby boomers!

3.0- 3.5% of the Russian population is set to retire, yet they only have 2.5% of the population as replacement workers, a figure which will drop due to casualties in the war in Ukraine.
2/ Image
Or at least 1,440,000 - 1,600,000 workers short, if not way more before this war is over
3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 6
Putin May Trigger a Revolution Because of His Inability to Speak the Truth, Gatov Says
Paul Goble
Feb. 28, 2023
1/
Despite the hopes of some in the emigration, there are many reasons to think that there is no immediate prospect for a revolution in Russia, Vasily Gatov says. The regime not only has enormous coercive resources & propaganda keeps the population in check
2/
but elites do not yet think they would not risk losing everything by challenging him. But the Russian scholar, who now is at the University of Southern California in the West, has one shortcoming that could in the end trigger a revolution:
3/
Read 9 tweets
Mar 6
According to viable system modelling theory & system dynamics modelling, both the USSR & the Russian Federation are non viable systems (Inst. of Cybernetics, Kyiv & Moscow, early 1970s)

Not Just Propaganda-Putin Really Fears Russia Could Fall Apart,
Paul Goble
Mar 5, 2023
1/
Most commentaries on Vladimir Putin’s recent references to the possibility that Russia & the Russian nation could disintegrate have suggested that the Kremlin leader is using that possibility as a way of mobilizing the population of his country in support of his regime
2/
Aleksandr Skobov says. But there are compelling reasons to think that Putin, just like earlier Russian rulers, really fears that there is “an abyss under their feet” & that “the fragility of the entire imperial structure” could lead to its collapse
3/
Read 18 tweets
Mar 6
Far from All Russians are Morally Responsible for the War in Ukraine, Sekatskaya Says
Paul Goble
Staunton, Mar. 2, 2023
1/
In discussions about moral responsibility for the war in Ukraine, 2 extreme positions have become popular. Some place all the blame on Vladimir Putin because he decided to go to war and could at any moment stop it, while others blame all Russians for failing to block him
2/
from starting the war or participating in any way in the continuation of the conflict. But in fact, Mariya Sekatskaya, a Russian philosopher at the University of Dusseldorf, says, while there is no question that Putin bears moral responsibility for the war
3/
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(