Podcast with Michael Kofman reflecting on his recent trip to Bakhmut. Ukraine rationing artillery ammo tightly. Russia using air power more, testing whether has Ukraine has enough stocks of radar-guided air defence missiles. geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/myth-…
Poor prospects for Russia. Ukr has “really good” defences of Bakhmut. Risk to Ukr is Russia turning north, pushing to Sieversk & Bilohorivka, going up to Donetsk river to pressure Kreminna-Lyman axis. Kofman says lot of personnel in Ukr units now mobilised. Experienced men lost.
Most western training programme for Ukraine “pretty anaemic” relative to losses. Kofman asked Ukrainians on quality of training “and answers were pretty mixed, skills-wise”. Combined arms training is producing two battalions a month; “not a lot” relative to size of new corps.
Kofman: Ukraine artillery barrel wear an issue but since autumn Ukr now has domestic capacity to fix Western supplied artillery rather than sending it to Poland. Kyiv Ind story saying Ukr has ten 120mm mortar rounds per day "tracked with a lot of things I saw & heard"
Kofman on artillery shortages. Only solution is US & other countries reach deep, take big risk in eating into their own stocks this year "but after that I worry that folks will be relatively empty & down to monthly production". Worry is summer, autumn, winter after an offensive.
Kofman on military culture clash in Ukraine: parts of force "young and dynamic". Ukr army v good at platoon, company & battalion command level, Other parts look "Soviet and ossified, very hierarchical and vertical command structure that doesn't like to do mission command."
Kofman: most NATO-trained ppl lost. This is now "war of mobilised" & of reserve officers returned to staff duty. That offensive capacity of both sides. Makes it about "who wants it more" and "who makes fewer mistakes", like Russia's choice to exhaust itself in this offensive.
Kofman on forthcoming Ukrainian offensive. People expecting "major operational thrusts" like in Kharkiv. "Initially people will be disappointed". More likely is "series of pushes, pressing Ru forces". Ukrainians talk lot about Ru tactical adaptation on drones, counter-battery etc
Kofman: "read-outs" from Ukraine on how US weapons are performing are proving extremely helpful, including on "tinkering we need to do". [Me: Presumably this is also true of European weapons. Ukraine as grand test-bed for old and new arms]
Kofman: major issue is no. of armoured fighting vehicles. Ukr bgdes "dramatically expanded", some with seven infantry battalions per brigade. "There is no mechanisation for them" nor "motorisation". Ukraine needs mobility to go on offensive (plus logistics, breaching equipment)
Kofman: "it's all about Starlink. I hate the idea of game-changers ... but if you're looking for one enabling tech that's critical to the war effort it's Starlink. I see it everywhere, it's essential. I shudder to think what the war effort would look like without Starlink"
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