Thread by @BaluSreevidya

TN Politics - Note 10

In response to questions on my thread about Nirmal Kumar's exit, here is detailed view of BJP-AIADMK relationship.

~ As I said in Jaipur Dialogue in Jan 2021, EPS had everything to lose in 2021 Assembly Elections. He was seeking re-election as sitting CM.

~ EPS was a good administrator. Given time, he will rise to the stature of JJ and even MGR. He has the cunning, patience, skills, determination, and genuine wish to serve people.

His biggest weakness was L&O. His drawback is that no matter how effective he was, he still was the

product of the DK ideology and ecosystem. So, he let his party's (shared) revenue model allowing his district/ward level leaders to continue to live on extortion, commission, and corruption at the grassroot.

~ Until 2019 LS Elections, EPS did not realise that

despite his good administration (minus L&O, minus DK style grassroot operations), his name still wasn't a familiar one among the cadres and voters.

~ Sunil K filled in this gap and built a good PR campaign to the extent of bridging the gap with DMK.

~ The entire premise was

'this admin is going well, why should we change this'?

I had already predicted earlier that year EPS's approach will be entirely on his CM position.

~ Now this is over. He is not a sitting CM, not even a distant challenger after @annamalai_k

~ After MGR and JJ, it's not EPS

who is more familiar with the masses. It still is OPS.

~ So, in 2026, people would have long forgotten EPS as a CM. He will need to rely on footwork, rather than PR this time.

~ He also cannot shine as the challenger of Stalin as Annamalai has already snatched this role.

~ Since OPS is a better known CM face, he is always a threat for EPS. It does not matter if leaders of the party support EPS.

He allowed AIADMK's revenue shared (with DMK) model to continue, and OPS chose to question the accounts instead. So, the leaders knew whom to stand with.

OPS is not the man for them.

He was not in Koovathur Resort. EPS was. So, I won't take the number of elected/selected leaders standing with EPS.

AIADMK leaders know that they need a lot of money to meet two major elections and need the symbiosis to continue with DMK.

No one knows who of the two will the masses recognise and stand with now or in 2026. This is not tested yet.

~ EPS knows that if OPS is allowed to continue in the party till 2026, OPS may even break the party to ensure EPS does not come back as EPS 3.0

~ He thought removing OPS will mitigate the risk. This was like eating the frog first thing in the morning.

~ Therefore, LS election matters a lot for EPS to demonstrate to the masses that he is a serious contender for the 2024 and the challenger to Stalin in the 2026 elections.

~ All this means he will need to stitch up alliances with all parties that would give him votes - however small the percentage is.

~ BJP has the money to support at the booth level, AIADMK has cadre strength.

~ If put together, this mutual benefit will help in a big way. Why would EPS not want to have this advantage?

~ Now, that being established, the next question is on the propaganda the DK ecosystem spreads on minority votes - BJP - AIADMK issue.

~ I don't think EPS is so naive

as to believe that minority will vote for AIADMK the moment they sever relationship with BJP.

~ Today minority votes in TN are controlled by the Delhi power centre led by Sonia. (She was the centre even when JJ was alive).

~ All power nodes of TJ, EC, LTTE, and other such

forces have come together in TN and their choice is Stalin and Congress.

~ I have said 1.5 years ago, that the coordination with these forces has been taken over from Kanimozhi by Stalin's son.

~ Whether EPS keeps BJP out or not, these votes are not going to come to AIADMK

for this reason. JJ had struck deals with these forces which is why they voted her.

Karunanidhi didn't overtly do anything like this, but Stalin has adopted JJ's tactic openly this time.

~ So, keeping BJP out won't secure minority votes, but joining hands with them will bring

not only additional vote share, but also shared election expenses.

~ This way, EPS manages to win a decent share of LS seats (more than half), then his position wrt 2026 will be powerful.

Hence, the AIADMK-BJP alliance will continue in 2024

As I always say, 2024

may become the watershed moment for AIADMK and the future of its alliance with BJP in 2026.

~ The current rumble between the two parties will continue right into the election year as EPS's unease with Annamalai is greater than his unease with OPS

~ This will also reflect in

seat selection and negotiations as well. As such this is a weak point for NDA alliance.

Therefore,

~ It's best for BJP cadres and supporters to not engage in the BJP-AIADMK relationship issues at the cost of focusing on DMK.

~ As I always say, Stalin needs a lot of pressure

to cut down seats to Congress, which is what central BJP would want.

~ I would also suggest not to respond to anyone on SM or to add to views of Youtube channels who raise this issue persistently.

We have a #Nadaipayanam to focus on.

@blsanthosh @CTRavi_BJP @AmitShah @JPNadda