Thread by @noclador

All this doom mongering about how "difficult" it will be for Ukraine to breach the russian trenches in the South... people need to man up and do some military service before running their mouths like that.

A thread about offensive operations 🧵:
1/36

Yes, breaching a defensive line with an anti-tank ditch out front, a minefield, deep trenches filled with machine guns and ATGM teams is difficult... IF you don't have the right tools.

A trench line is barely an inconvienance for NATO, because of this ⬇️⬇️
2/n

Ukraine doesn't have air supremacy, but Ukraine is receiving other tools. Like i.e. JDAM ER bombs to plough through those russian trenches.
Here a Taliban compound is flattened by GBU-32 JDAMs (1,000 lb Mk 83 bombs).
Ukraine won't be able to use the JDAM ERs at their max.
3/n

range of 70+ km. JDAM ER are Mk 80 series bombs with added INS/GPS guidance kit (the Joint Direct Attack Munition part) & glide wings (the Extended Range part).
JDAM ER come in 500 lb (GBU-38/ Mk 82) and 2,000 lb (GBU-31/ Mk 84). But Ukrainian fighter jets can't release them
4/n

at great height, due to the risk of russian air defense systems.
However Ukrainian Su-25 fighters have been lobbing unguided S-24/S-25 rockets at the russians from 3 km behind the front, so Ukraine can likely toss JDAM ER bombs at the russians from the same distance.
5/n

Especially if Ukraine saturates that front sector with volleys of AGM-88 HARM missiles and GMLRS rockets to annihilate russian air defense systems.

And two Patriot batteries with PAC-2 GEM+ missiles (range 160+ km) will keep russian fighters away from a Ukrainian offensive.
6/n

Ukraine only has to pierce the russian line in a few points in a 3 km front sector for an offensive.

First and foremost: intensive/detailed reconnaissance!!!!!
• Where do the russians sleep/rest?
• Where are their minefields?
• Which road will russian reinforcements take?
7/n

Chose a front sector that has open terrain (no rivers, no forests) behind it & reconnoiter that sector INTENSIVELY. Then recon some more. And then recon MORE.

Ready?

1) Shell the front sector with every available artillery piece; drive the russian troops into their dugouts.
8/n

2) Hit all dugouts with JDAM ER & GMLRS. Smash all russian troop shelters. Annihilate everything in that front sector.
3) Excalibur all russian armored vehicles in that front sector.

In the image below every dugout behind the trench should get hit by a JDAM or GMLRS.
9/n

4) GMLRS and GLSDB every russian base in the entire South. Smite everywhere russians have based reinforcements. Keep them busy & fixed there.
5) Have 100s of drones up in the air. Yes, Ukraine will lose a lot of them, but it is imperative to spot russian reinforcements
10/n

as soon as possible to hit them with artillery and/or SMArt or Bonus top attack submunitions; or to scatter anti-tank mines into their path: Germany sent AT2 mines, which are deployed with MARS II rockets, while the US sent RAAM mines, which are deployed by 155mm howitzers.
11/n

These mines can be set to self-destruct after 3 or 6 hours (AT2) and 4 hours (RAAM) = enough time to breach the russian line.
6) After the russian trenches have been ploughed through, send your Leopard 2A6s, CV90s, Bradleys, Leopard 2A4, Marder, Challenger 2, etc. forward.
12/n

But have them stop before the minefields (!!), which you hopefully did reconnoiter EXTENSIVELY beforehand.
Every vehicle has to keep an eye out for russian survivors - use the tank's 120mm guns and IFV's autocannons to make sure the russians can't set up ATGMs.
13/n

7) Time to clear the mines: the US sent enough Mine Clearing Line Charge (MICLIC) to Ukraine to clear a path from New York to Philadelphia.
MICLICs are fired by a rocket into a minefield and then detonated to destroy/set off the mines. Afterwards a armored engineer vehicle
14/n

with a mine plough clears a path through the blasted area to ensure no mines remains.
Here a US Army M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle fires a MICLIC, detonates it, then ploughs through the scorched earth. MICLIC's are ~107m long (350 feet) and contain about 1,800 lb of C-4.
15/n

If the minefield is deeper - repeat until a path is blasted/cleared through it. The US sent MICLIC, Finland is sending three Leopard 2 based mine ploughs and Germany 42 Wisent 1 mine-clearing vehicles based on the Leopard 1.
16/n

8) When you reach the anti-tank ditch - fill it in. Germany and Italy are sending Dachs armored engineer vehicles to do that.

9) Once combat engineers have cleared paths through the russian fortifications - the offensive truly gets underway: tanks, IFVs, APCs, all move
17/n

through the breach & advance into the enemy's rear.
10) In parallel infantry moves up to clear the trench line in the breach sector of any remaining russians.

Ideally 8-10 paths have been cleared in a 3 km wide sector of the front & Ukrainian columns now pour through them.
18/n

It's time to throw the russians in disarray like during the Kharkiv offensive. The more columns and the faster they move reduces the russians' ability to counterattack. And again: drones, drones, drones. Send them all in!
Look for the russians, find them, hit them.
19/n

PzH 2000, AS-90, AHS Krab, M109A6 Paladin, Zuzana 2, M142 HIMARS, M270 MRLS, & whatever Soviet-era self-propelled armored artillery remains use it all to hit russian forces the moment they are spotted.

Nothing demoralizes as much as getting hit by artillery 5 minutes after
20/n

arriving in a place, where you're supposed to set up a defensive position.

And use all your Excalibur rounds with the Swedish Archers!

Archers set Excalibur fuzes automatically in 0.2 seconds and can fire them 10 km further than M777 and M109A6. And Archer has the highest
21/n

rate of fire.

While tanks and IFVs, AMX-10 RC, and other armored fighting vehicles seek out enemy formations and destroy them, have infantry in Strykers and MRAPs follow to secure the rear, eliminate russian stragglers, handle POWs, and secure the supply lines.
22/n

And bring in those supplies ASAP!
You want to win? You have to fuel your armor!

A steady stream of supplies, secured by a lot of Ukrainian troops in the rear are essential (!) to keep the offensive going. If your rear isn't secured... your troops are gonna get bogged down
23/n

without supplies like the russians a year ago around Kyiv.

And where should Ukraine attack? Thanks to @bradyafr's excellent work, we know where the russians expect Ukraine to attack. He mapped all russian fortifications (in red). Ukraine's main objectives in the South are:
24/n

Melitopol and Mariupol. Secondary objectives are the Perekop Isthmus to cut off a russian retreat to Crimea and a pincer into the rear of Donetsk (purple Pentagons).

So how would I attack? Depends on the available forces... with nine mechanized brigades, three artillery
25/n

brigades, two engineer brigades & follow on forces to secure the rear, I would attack, break through & pursue three directions:
1) South to Mariupol
2) West to Bilmak in the rear of the russian front to panic the russian troops there
3) East to Amvrosiivka to make holding
26/n

Donetsk city impossible for the russians.

Once these objectives are secured I would pursue limited attacks in the East to secure the border with russia and encircle Donetsk from three sides, while throwing most forces into a push towards Berdyansk & Tokmak.
27/n

From the Berdyansk spit GLSDB can reach and destroy the Kerch bridge, while once Tokmak is reached all those "difficult to take" russian trench lines are cut off and the russian troops will panic and abandon them.
Last but not least a push to liberate Melitopol.
28/n

This offensive would remain under the cover of Patriot (blue) and GLSDB (green), with GMLRS (orange), Archer (purple) and other artillery moving with the attacking units to provide fire support.

And russian positions that don't surrender would be JDAMed out of existence.
29/n

As cherry on top I would love for Ukrainian troops to cross the Dnipro at Kherson & occupy the Perekop Isthmus to bag all the russian forces in the South; and for Ukrainian troops to advance to Alchevsk and secure a panicked russian retreat from most of Donetsk Oblast.
30/n

Alas I believe for this operation Ukraine doesn't have the needed materiel... which is the fault of the West, what still provides only limited support.

If we want Ukraine to win, then more of everything is needed. The more we give them, the sooner this war will be over and
31/n

the fewer people will die. So a 1,000 JDAM ER please! Another 10,000 Excalibur rounds please. 500,000 155mm shells ASAP please. And send more COBRA and MAMBA artillery radars!

While waiting for the engineering units to breach the russian frontline Ukrainian forces are at
32/n

risk of russian artillery strikes & loitering munitions. For the latter Ukraine received a good amount of Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, but to counter artillery, not just howitzers, but also counter battery radars are needed. Here the West needs to deliver more!
33/n

Less than two months remain to provide Ukraine with the tools needed to breach the russian lines, liberate the South, and decisively defeat fascist russia - and provide the tools in ENOUGH numbers.

I.e. the US realized that the Biber armored bridge layers donated by Germany
34/n

can't support Leopard 2 tanks, so the US sends M60 Armored Vehicle Launched Bridges. Great! But send 50+. If Ukraine receives too few it will slow down the offensive and allow the russians to regroup.

That applies to everything: from fuel to ammo to food to drones etc. etc.
35/n

And Ukraine must win! All else will lead to disaster. So send everything from everyone all at once!

Lend/Lease it if you must. But don't hesitate. Too much of everything secures victory!

36/end