Share this page!

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Twitter logo
Mar 11 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Well here is by far the clearest articulation of the Ukrainian government's case for continuing to fight at Bakhmut. An interview by @Podolyak_M given to the Italian paper La Stampa, summarized here. kyivpost.com/post/14119
Ukraine has two main goals motivating the Bakhmut campaign, to allow time to prepare for its counteroffensive later (they want time to well prepare their forces) and to continue to wear down Russian forces, which they know Russia is committing.
Podolyak takes aim at a few of the widespread assumptions out there. First, the Russians are not just throwing convicts at Bakhmut, they are increasingly concentrating their trained military personnel there along with the good PMC fighters.
If you read that whole excerpt you will see more--the Ukrainians repeating the claims that the Russians are losing between 7-5 soldiers for each Ukrainian at Bakhmut. If this is true, and NATO intelligence supports it, this is a massive slaughter of the Russians.
Look, I dont know if the Ukrainians are right, but what they say makes sense strategically and fits into the pattern of the war to this time. I tried to articulate why this might be the case 4 days ago--and came up with exactly what Podolyak said here. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/why-bakhmut-…
Those talking about ending the Battle of Bakhmut dont provide nearly the strategically well thought out case that the Ukrainians have put forward imho.
For now at least the Ukrainian strategy seems to hold. The Russian advances have stopped around Bakhmut and Russian losses are claimed to be very high
Ukrainian sources say no advance and heavy Russian losses yesterday.
Overall very very high Russian losses claimed yesterday in soldiers and equipment.
One might call the Ukrainian tweet the logic of Bakhmut…yes @michaeldweiss ?
FWIW, looks like the Ukrainian government/military looking very stung about all the criticism it has taken about Bakhmut. Its now releasing daily claims of losses in the area.
Last post in this thread (probably). Zelensky really doubling down on the effectiveness of his Bakhmut strategy. Claims more than 1100 Russians were killed there in a week. washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Phillips P. OBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 8
Just sent out my midweek substack update for subscribers. Tried to explain why Ukraine is fighting for Bakhmut, even when their forces are in what looks like a precarious position. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/why-bakhmut-…
Its all about, I imagine, preparing for what comes after. The Ukrainians dont want this to happen...
Really interesting @TheStudyofWar update on Russian Bakhmut attack. If they take the city, the Russians would have little left to advance onwards. Makes sense for Ukraine to waste Rus power there
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 6
The reporting of what is happening around Bakhmut is all over the place, but overall it’s impressionistic. Different soldiers and officers in different parts of the line experience very different things. Because some of them are quoted, doesn’t mean that the battle is….
definitely going one way or the other. We don’t actually have any reliable data on Ukrainian losses, just lots of impressionistic descriptions.
Here is the first report claiming an actual figure for relative losses around Bakhmut from a western source with intelligence access. 5 to 1 in Ukraine’s figure. If so, that explains why 🇺🇦 wants to keep fighting there. They are wasting Russian fighting power.
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 5
Hello All, Just sent out my weekend update on Substack (its free). Its a meditation on how to understand the Battle of Bakhnmut which may or may not be ending. I reached back to the American Revolution and maybe the best US commander, Nathaniel Greene. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-upda…
When Greene first heard about the Battle of Bunker Hill, he exclaimed that he would sell the British another hill at the same cost. It was an incisive way of saying that the territory of Bunker Hill did not matter, its the losses on either side that will determine its importance.
We should use Greene's framework to analyse Bakhmut (as well as Greene's campaigns in the South in 1780-81, though I could not go into those in much detail. I hope you enjoy.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Feb 28
In Florence, mostly work but a few hours to look around, focussed on ecclesiastical architecture, and it’s wonderful of course. However, Palermo imho, is much finer with Monreale, Capella Palatina, it’s Duomo (exterior), La Martorana, San Cataldo, etc…
This is not a knock on Florence but a love note to the churches of Palermo. So if you are thinking of an Italian trip this year, give Palermo a serious look. Plus it will have far fewer tourists in the summer than Florence during a cold February (trust me).
And the food is much less expensive and, dare I say it, better….
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Feb 26
On reflection I wonder if I should have gone into even more detail about this point in the substack (was just worried it would be too long). Sometimes people miss the big story: and in US public opinion the big story is Democrat support for Ukraine
So much has been written about the softness of Republican support, which is undoubtedly true as the poll above and many others show. pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023…
Yet, in focussing on the GOP; people miss the extraordinary depth of support for Ukraine by the Democrats, normally seen as the less interventionist of the parties.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Feb 26
Just published my latest weekend update on substack (its free). Delved into 3 questions--the importance of Biden's visit to Kyiv, Chinese policy, and the ongoing Russian offensive. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-upda…
The importance of the Biden visit gets a great deal of discussion. I think it shows that US support for Ukraine will stay very strong (and probably grow)--for as long as Biden remains president. A few things stand out as to why.
1) Biden has tied himself now personally to Ukraine--not only by showing up as President and making a formal visit, but by the extraordinary way he has followed up--with further personal identifications to the Ukrainian cause.
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

:(